How should LBJ have approached Vietnam?

This is my 2 cents from stories from my father, uncles and professors, under beers and nem chua :)

It's awesome to see folks bringing the Vietnamese perspective to the English-speaking world. Heck, I don't even see much of the _South_ Vietnamese perspective.

Closing Haiphong with mines in 1965 is low risk to US Crews and causes no undue civilian harm

It just became near impossible to import large amounts of Military gear.
Yes, China allowed rail transit, but that was only 15%, and every trainload was subject to a 'tax' on any Soviet or Warsaw Pact goods.

Hmm. Did anyone calculate how long it would take the North Vietnamese to clear the mines? And how risky to US assets a continued struggle of mine laying/mine clearing would be?

In 1966, Saigon Falls, and LBJ's is defending his 'Victory' of a year and a half ago with today's news that there is no more South Vietnam, Cambodia is part of the Communist block as well along with the Indonesian coup the year before, when General Suharto was executed by the PKI, and Thailand currently having border incursions.

Not just Republicans accuse him of ignoring the Red Wave in Asia

Why would Saigon falling in 1966 mean Indonesia doesn't commit mass murder against its communists, suspected communists and communist-adjacent groups?

I don't see why recognizing the US position in Vietnam as what it was would stop the CIA, State Department, Congress and the President rendering all necessary assistance to a useful Indonesian regime?

The POD would be that ARVN is instead issued AR-15s from 1963 on, as it was already in production and the first combat testing had been done by ARVN troops.
They wanted the weapon to be their standard issue rifle due to how much their troops liked it and it allowed them to outgun (at the time) the VC and NVA troops they came across (it wasn't until about '68 that the NVA was mass issued AK-47s).

Interesting. Makes me wonder what would be possible if the US had done what the Chinese did, and were willing to strip the best weapons from the US armed services to arm the South Vietnamese.

Protests were about US dead. Only veterans Fuck The Army type movements really cared about war crimes. Civvies cared about blood and treasure. Even the radical liberals (who believed themselves marxists) cared more about US honour than dead foreigners.

Heck, I don't get the feeling that even today many people in the US really care what happened in Vietnam. You'd think Vietnam was some natural disaster that had struck the US, rather some war where they were fighting other humans.

It's pretty clear to me that the US anti-war movement was not any kind of pro-Vietnamese movement.

A lot of tongue in cheek in this thread, but seriously, the RTL "soft atrocities" of the strategic hamlet program and McNamara's "100,000" should have been alarm bells that something was seriously wrong with the fascist idiots in the American government who ran that colonialist war. Never mind Vietnam where the Americans never should have been...

Can we please not use the word "fascist" in an overly-loose way? Whatever the moral deficiencies of those who served under Johnson, "fascist" is one thing I think we can be confident they weren't.

(I rather like Umberdo Eco's definition of fascism that he gives in his essay Ur Fascism, if you are wondering what definition I use.)

fasquardon
 
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os Unless they could devise a strategy to win, and were willing to commit the resources to carry it out, they never should have entered the war. That's why Eisenhower refused to intervene in the Battle of Dien Bien Phu in 1954, to save the French. Eisenhower was a far better strategic thinker then Johnson, he understood the calculus of means vs. ends.
 
At the time, there were just as many Cold Warriors in the D party as R

So? Were they going to desert LBJ a sitting el Presidente'? Were they going to overthrow LBJ? I somehow doubt it. In reality it might mean defeat at the next election but that is always on the cards. Being "soft" on Communism? Load of old cobblers.
 

marathag

Banned
Hmm. Did anyone calculate how long it would take the North Vietnamese to clear the mines? And how risky to US assets a continued struggle of mine laying/mine clearing would be?
They had no luck in sweeping them out until the Peace Treaty. One of the requirements was the USN to clear them out.

So a really long time. Seems like their Soviet and WP advisors had little idea on what to do to help them out.

Other thing, was with the mines, and no shipping trappic, the channels were silting up. After the mines were cleared, dredging had to be done too.

Why would Saigon falling in 1966 mean Indonesia doesn't commit mass murder against its communists, suspected communists and communist-adjacent groups?
With RVN on the ropes, the RPI gets more help sooner and has a a successful coup before a chance for the Rightists to slaughter them
 

marathag

Banned
t's pretty clear to me that the US anti-war movement was not any kind of pro-Vietnamese movement.
Hippies and Yippies were waving a lot of NVA Flags for some reason, when they weren't burning US Flags
19680810_20_Anti-War_March-1024x700.jpg

So? Were they going to desert LBJ a sitting el Presidente'? Were they going to overthrow LBJ?
Overthrow?
But he had enough trouble getting stuff the Congress with losing the D Conservatives
 
They had no luck in sweeping them out until the Peace Treaty. One of the requirements was the USN to clear them out.

So a really long time. Seems like their Soviet and WP advisors had little idea on what to do to help them out.

Other thing, was with the mines, and no shipping trappic, the channels were silting up. After the mines were cleared, dredging had to be done too.

Yeah, that sounds like it'd be pretty brutal on a war effort alright.

Hippies and Yippies were waving a lot of NVA Flags for some reason, when they weren't burning US Flags

Interesting. I may have to see if I can find a more detailed history of the peace movement. If there was genuine pro-North Vietnamese sentiment then, it would be interesting to learn why it dried up so fast.

fasquardon
 
  • Whereas the Moro slaying was praxic?
  • Whereas Baader-Meinhoff, or the more competent armed anarchist urbanites who never got caught, were embedded working class militia such as PLAF manoeuvre forces as of 1964?
  • Whereas the Symbianese Liberation Army doesn't sound like an unfortunate integration of a tiktok celebrity fantasy with a 4chanesque carnivale of fucked-upped-ness?

Those are examples of isolated terrorist attacks, not the overthrow of a regional power. Not to mention, stuff like the P2 Lodge illustrate that there were shadowy killings in Cold War Europe by groups all over political spectrum- some of which, by Gladio's edge, would have be in position to combat some sort of farfetched Eurocommunist revolution.

Did I need to mention bodies without organs more? Or the French military tradition of enjoying an orgy together after committing to engage in a coup d'etat? Or what the French did in Algeria, considered as part of metropolitan France?

The kind of outrage of the US shopping France's colonies off for them will get you a very unusual terrain amongst children of the bourgeoisie with red armbands on.

So what's your point, that French military and colonial history is as grotesque as that of the Germans and the Belgians, and the rest? Why would French reds coup the government over Indochina? Why wouldn't those same Frenchmen who were angry over Algeria- Messrs. Salan and co.- be the hard-right militarists who would be the ones crushing commies with extreme prejudice? Wouldn't NATO and the OAS- not to mention aforementioned stay-behind counterrevolutionary networks- spring into action? You think the Brits are going to take this lying down, not to mention the West Germans and Franco?

You're concocting some lurid fantasy without showing your work. It's a tantalizing little sketch but makes no sense absent a larger picture. It's just cheap dystopianism.
 
Eurocommunist

If your evaluation of the PCF in 1954 is Eurocommunist it is hard to take your criticism aeriously

Why wouldn't those same Frenchmen who were angry over Algeria

The US sold France out over Algeria? Wow. I mean first one of the most tightly Stalinist communist parties being Eurocommunist now this.

Wouldn't NATO and the OAS- not to mention aforementioned stay-behind counterrevolutionary networks- spring into action?

Yes. As I noted French politics would become histrionic and quite violent.

BR weren’t an isolated terrorist incident.
 
If your evaluation of the PCF in 1954 is Eurocommunist it is hard to take your criticism aeriously

They're communists in Western Europe. Wrong use of jargon in a mountain of words and you choose to attack semantics. It's hard to take seriously any non-rebuttal that uses phrases such as "hard to take your criticism aeriously".

The US sold France out over Algeria? Wow. I mean first one of the most tightly Stalinist communist parties being Eurocommunist now this.

Your scenario had French communists overthrowing the French government because of lack of U.S. support in Indochina. Okay. I'm pointing out that in our timeline, the Frenchmen who actually got angry at decolonization policies enough to actually plot to overthrow the government were right-wingers. Right-wingers, in an alternate history, would presumably be just as angry at the government for failing in Indochina. Either way, that angry mobilized military might not have done well enough in the jungle or in the desert, but they could stomp over Stalinist communist movements just fine in the Metropole.

Yes. As I noted French politics would become histrionic and quite violent.

So's American politics. How many civil wars broke out in the 20th century over here? You're talking about a bloody NATO power falling to a communist uprising. The Green Berets would be in Eighth Arrondissement long before then.

BR weren’t an isolated terrorist incident.

Funnily enough, all of your examples in your post weren't even about France.
 
Let me be clear. What I am proposing is:

1. Not a warcrime. It is a means to protect the civilian population of South Vietnam from collateral damage. My proposal is MORE ethical than OTL by far. In OTL that failed colonial adventure killed upwards of 7 digits of civilians by some counts.

My first priotory within the confines of this prompt is harm reduction but yes that comes with trade offs.

2. Isn't different than what capitalism does normally anyway. The rapid movement of an argicultural population into an urban area, the creation of a society of discipline and control, the imposition of wage slavery on them etc. I'm just saying that if that's the end state anyway and with the NVA there rip the band-aid off and get it done.

3. I doubt you have this much moral uproar about the normal functioning and development of capitalist economic production but feel free to tell if I'm wrong on this point.

4. I'm mostly just talking about a difference in scale. In other words what is the functional difference between say Mega-Saigon or Singapore or Hong Kong during the Cold War? There isn't. And yet I doubt anyone here will wax poetic about how the Singaporeans being on that island is some great slight against human rights and deceny.

Forced relocation of people has always required mass murder, because who wants to abandon their homes because some soldiers say so? What you are proposing would require a genocidal campaign of murder and intimidation to force people to abandon their homes, with more deaths on the way to Saigon due to exposure, starvation, disease, grief and stress. And then more deaths as millions of people are packed into this supersized black hole of Calcutta.

Further, planned cities have a poor record. Brazilia and Islamabad and other artificial cities are not terribly successful, because the planners always miss details, resulting in economically inefficient cities that are less comfortable to live in. It takes about a generation for residents in these cities to add the missed details, the footpaths, cornershops, demolish the bad ideas and otherwise bring the new city up towards the average of the country. In this case, "a generation of economic inefficiency" means that an already desperate and immiserated people will die in droves. Stuck in a giant American-garrisoned death camp.

Honestly, the only way to avoid Holocaust-levels of killing if the US tries to impose this plan is if the Vietnamese successfully rebel against this atrocity and kick the US out before it can get very far, or the insanity on the US side clears up before more than a few villages are wiped out.

Needless to say, this does not help the US meet any of its muddled goals in Vietnam.

fasquardon
 

McPherson

Banned
Can we please not use the word "fascist" in an overly-loose way? Whatever the moral deficiencies of those who served under Johnson, "fascist" is one thing I think we can be confident they weren't.

(I rather like Umberdo Eco's definition of fascism that he gives in his essay Ur Fascism, if you are wondering what definition I use.)

fasquardon

I understand your stricture on fascist and I agree; but the only other adequate word to describe Robert McNamara, McGeorge Bundy and others of that ilk is "salauds maudits" which is how the French described their English guests during "The Hundred Years War". It roughly translates as "cursed bastards" but in effect means "goddamns". Fascism in this lack of empathy for human rights and its nationalist centric justification for any crime of convenience kind of fits those bozos. And I submit that Eco's 14 points really applies to those idiots when you think about it.
 
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Further, planned cities have a poor record. Brazilia and Islamabad and other artificial cities are not terribly successful, because the planners always miss details, resulting in economically inefficient cities that are less comfortable to live in.

I must remember that the next time I visit Canberra...
 
Canberra’s banlieue are moderately famous. Especially for the heroin. It is noted for its shopping centres being absurdly placed. And to travel in a straight line one must turn right three times. The archives and library offsite are in the wrong position to survive air burst iirc. Also the artificial lake is a killer.
 
I must remember that the next time I visit Canberra...

Canberra is something like 4 generations old now though. I would be surprised if its artificial nature had a noticeable impact on its economic productivity at this point.

I understand your stricture on fascist and I agree; but the only other adequate word to describe Robert McNamara, McGeorge Bundy and others of that ilk is "salauds maudits" which is how the French described their English guests during "The Hundred Years War". It roughly translates as "cursed bastards" but in effect means "goddamns". Fascism in this lack of empathy for human rights and its nationalist centric justification for any crime of convenience kind of fits those bozos. And I submit that Eco's 14 points really applies to those idiots when you think about it.

Erm. It seems to me that lack of empathy + nationalism is pretty common among non-fascists.

But did Johnson's team reject modernism? Did they embrace the hero-death cult? Did they obsess about machismo and weaponry? Did they appeal to and foster a sense of grevience in the population? I've never heard of the New Dealers and technophiles of Johnson's administration espousing such things.

As the British record in India shows (to pick one example of a great many), a rigid adherence to liberalism gets pretty ugly and murderous. And there are plenty of examples of zealots of other ideologies committing grievous crimes. Fascism is certainly an important and especially foul subset of murderous zealotry, but hardly the only form of it.

fasquardon
 

TDM

Kicked
ARVN didn't get M16s in significant numbers until after Tet.
Certainly ARVN had other reasons to have issues with morale, but having fought most of the conflict without (the war didn't start in '65) morale was shot by the time that M16s were available in needed numbers. If done years earlier it might have made a difference before Tet broke much of the faith in the US/SV war effort.

Plus it might well save the lives of ARVN officers and soldiers early on who would be more valuable later with their experience. And would remove NVA/VC soldiers would OTL would do the same for their side.

The POD is just have the recommendation in the link in 1962 be accepted instead of opposed by the US army:


And the report:


I can see the morale benefits of not feeling out gunned, but I don't think we're going to see huge changes in casualty figure in both directions for the knock on effects you mention above.

Also it's not just the rifle but all the other weapons as well. And as the earlier articles mention being able to call in close support etc, etc. what we're really talking about is training , equipping and supporting a modern army not just swapping rifles out.

But that said I do agree with basic premise, I'm just not convinced it will have a wide spread effect!

The Saga of the M16 introduction and acceptance in general is obviously it's own epic tale!
 

McPherson

Banned
But did Johnson's team reject modernism? Did they embrace the hero-death cult? Did they obsess about machismo and weaponry? Did they appeal to and foster a sense of grevience in the population? I've never heard of the New Dealers and technophiles of Johnson's administration espousing such things.

How much do you know about Wilsonian Progressives?

There is a lot of difference between the "Confederate democrats" and the "liberal democrats" in the American Democrat party. LBJ was very conscious of this problem and he tried valiantly to tamp it down in himself, but he was a product of that confederate mindset and he surrounded himself with such fellow fascists thinkers who were quite comfortable with statism and treating human rights as expendable in the service of (racist) ideology. Robert McNamara, for example, for all his technophilia was a goddamn straight out of the Henry Ford corporate culture model mindset which treated human beings as either interchangeable parts and or as only useful to the company, if they bought Fords.

Remember, McNamara thought that to meet a shortfall in the draft (among the infantry) in the levees in a very unpopular war, thought he could minimize opposition if the drafted men were those people who were least able to actually understand what would be asked of them.


That is fascism to me.
 
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TDM

Kicked
Bad faith and straw man argument.

No a direct answer to your point that you are going to use the ARVN to do this


Bad faith and straw man argument.

No your plan involve increasing the population of Saigon by over 10x, Your response was "but Tokyo has a population that big". I (and others) responded that Tokyo has never seen such an increase sin population size is such a short period of time. And remember you are not even talking about a voluntary increase in population size but a forced one.


Your only argument so far for how this could be done is to name check the Marshal plan, but the Marshal plan was nothing like what your planning to do here.
 
But did Johnson's team reject modernism? Did they embrace the hero-death cult? Did they obsess about machismo and weaponry? Did they appeal to and foster a sense of grevience in the population? I've never heard of the New Dealers and technophiles of Johnson's administration espousing such things.
There is a lot of difference between the "Confederate democrats" and the "liberal democrats" in the American Democrat party.

The answer to both these is cowboys and country music.

The chief reason why the Great Society democrats were not fascist, was the lack of a paramilitary crisis which disempowered the old politics. As far as the rebirth of the racial nation through a disguised modernity, sure. Hell, Thatcher would be fascist then. As would Reagan. But they weren't. They didn't require a crisis that broke the old politics to come to power. And neither LBJ (shh: Kennedy), nor Thatcher nor Reagan needed to break active communist movements with the capacity to sunder the bourgeois state apparatus (obv: possibly inserting their own bourgeois state apparatus).

Rejection of modernism: country music and cow boys. Embracing the hero death cult: country music and cow boys. Obsessing about machismo and weaponry: country music and cow boys. Appeal to a fostered sense of grievance: country music and cow boys [the old cause.]

Now the problem with country music and cow boys is that they were black (or rather "hill" poor racial) and hispanic respectively. But this never stopped a national reconfiguration of the racial myth.

What stopped LBJ, or Thatcher, or Reagan was that they didn't need to hand out free helicopter rides: business was operating as usual.

As the British record in India shows

And this is a concommant point: so far no industrial social organisation lasting longer than about eighteen months has managed to avoid the value-form, or the kind of state excesses that people all too readily only associate with fascism. In my locale it is a romanticisation of labourism. That same labourism that put people on missions, dog collar tag mission suburbs, dog collar tag ghettos, and sent the fucking army into the mines. Not that the CPA of the era would have been any better. But the point being that industrial society in general is an awful fucking monster. And fascism is merely worse because it gives out great big "Participation Awards," for the things which other societies try to hide behind the curtain, under the rug, and three feet deep in the back garden.

Of course some people could have chosen freely to take one way free helicopter rides. Or chosen freely to be forced to drink Castor Oil. Or chosen freely to be gassed to death. That's the illusion of freedom discourses and rights discourses in 1789 liberal discourses: the freedom to consent to abhorrent acts.

It is almost as if "this is what people believed and why" discourses are more sustainable around historiographical analyses.

Otoh: McPherson gets points for trying to develop a theory of fascism greater than merely apeing past insults. Theory of fascism is one of the most hotly contested history-as-social-science fields. And my most common suggestion is: how are Peron, and Horthy and Arrow Cross related? As Horthy was the first to mobilise the core consistuents of contemporary scholarly marxist attempts to grapple with fascism, and to be honest, that's the most cogent attempt given that it centres material being, decentres particularly Italio-Germanic fixations, and looks to social function inside market economy.

Long way from Vietnam, despite the adoption of the free helicopter ride tactic, the RVN were pure comprador, and the VWP were arsehole stalinist nationalists (despite the repressed humanist socialist stalinist tendency (Giap), and the repressed village communist tendency in the PRG).

yours,
Sam R.
 

Deleted member 1487

Perhaps they cleaned them? US Army were taught early on during their introduction that the M16 required no cleaning. Therefore they had loads of stoppages. From my own experience, even when we cleaned them they suffered numerous stoppages.
I don't know when you served, but the lack of cleaning (a function of not being issued cleaning kits and materials...) was only part of the problem. The Army changed the powder without redesigning the weapon, which as you can imagine creates some issues with reliability. As I said it is well documented that there was basically sabotage over and over of the design to kill it's introduction and save the M14.
 
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