In American politics, being a third party is difficult. Historically a two party system, the United States has rarely had a third party find success in elections, and when they do that party typically takes the place of another in the duopoly. In 1912, a split in the Republican Party led to a new party being formed, the Progressive Party, led by none other than former President Teddy Roosevelt. Although Roosevelt was a popular figure, and he managed to win quite a few states, in the end the only thing the Progressives accomplished was splitting the vote with the Republicans and allowing Democrat Woodrow Wilson into power. However, how could Teddy and the Progressives have won the 1912 election? Did they ever have a chance? Or was Teddy's chance best in the Republican Party, knowing that he nearly beat William Howard Taft for the nomination?
How can Teddy Roosevelt win in 1912?
- Thread starter Bomster
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The easiest way is for TR to stay with the Republican Party. In OTL TR almost won over the delegates, many of which were supporting Taft. 1, Either have Taft die before 1912 or 2, TR is able to sway the Party to his side more successfully. In OTL Wilson won the election with only 43% of the vote. Had TR been on the Republican ticket, most historians think he'd win by a landslide.
If Roosevelt governs from 1913 to 1921, what kind of butterflies do we see in both America and the world? Especially with WW1 on the horizon.
The short answer is that if nominated he can win as a Republican (though this is by no means guaranteed, given the likely bitterness of the Taft supporters) but that he simply cannot win in a three-way race as a Progressive as long as the Democrats nominate someone who can get the core Democratic vote. Wilson easily did that and so IMO would any other plausible Democratic nominee, including Clark or even Bryan.
Easiest way, imo, is for Bryan or another Democrat to win (however narrowly) in 1908. In 1912 Roosevelt can make a run for a third time, defeating the Democrat.
Have Associate Justice SCOTUS Rufus W. Peckham die a year or two ahead of schedule (he died in 1909), so TR appoints Taft in his stead. A different conservative succeeds Roosevelt in 1908, perhaps Elihu Root though it would be problematic for the Midwestern wing having an Easterner succeed another Easterner, or even worse, a New Yorker succeeding another New Yorker. Anyway, he is defeated in 1912 by TR for the Republican nomination, who then wins the election and becomes President. TR's prospects will probably improve if you can get Champ Clark to win the Democratic nomination over Wilson, since Clark may not appeal in Republican states quite the way Wilson was able to. TR may or may not run again in 1916 and if he does so I think he has a very solid chance given how close Hughes came going up against Wilson.
Why would Root be defeated for the nomination? As the incumbent he nas the same political clout as Taft had OTL?
Root was the Chairman of the 1912 RNC, and as a supporter of Taft he played a significant role in getting him the nomination. Here Taft is unavailable since he is on the SCOTUS while Root himself is the nominee, so you may be able to get a Root supporter as the Chairmanship but it would probably still be difficult to get Roosevelt the nomination.
One thing that would have helped TR get the GOP nomination in 1912 would be if the South--where the GOP got very few votes except in parts of Appalachia like eastern TN--had had its representation at national GOP conventions correspondingly reduced. But it's hard to see when such a change would be made--Republican presidents liked the overrepresentation of the South precisely because southern delegates really didn't represent any substantial number of voters and were therefore heavily dependent on presidential patronage. In short, the South was really a "rotten borough."
Technically, Roosevelt was running for his second term in 1912. He was elected as McKinley's vice president in 1900. When McKinley was assassinated in 1901, Roosevelt became president and finished McKinley's term. 1904- 1908 was Roosevelt's first term as the elected president. 1912 - 1916 would be his second.
The major thing that changes is that Wilson would never be at the treaty negotiations in France at the end of WW1. Roosevelt felt that Great Britain, who fought longer than the US should have had more say in the negotiations. Secondly, Roosevelt wanted the US to enter the war no later than 1915 or early 1916. He saw the great war as America's chance to show Europe that the United States was ready to become a global power. He thought that if the US joined in 1915, while there would have been more casualties for America than OTL, Europe would see America as a nation that was worthy of standing side by side as an equal.
Let's not forget that Roosevelt won a Nobel prize for negotiating the peace between Russia and Japan after the Russo- Japanese War. I believe that if Roosevelt or someone with his ideals were at the peace talks, Germany may have had only a few overseas colonies taken away, and Kaiser Whilhelm II wouldn't have been forced to abdicate his throne and live in exile. More than likely, the German Empire would become something resembling Great Britain's Constitutional Monarchy. The treaty between Germany and Russia would have been honored as well.
Another thing to add is that Germany may ally itself with GB and France to help the White Army defeat the Reds in Russia. So, let's recap: No Soviet Union, Hitler doesn't rise to power because Germany isn't humiliated by the Treaty of Versailles, and no WW2 as we know it.
The problem was that TR himself rejected that line of reasoning in 1904. "On the fourth of March next I shall have served three and a half years, and this three and a half years constitutes my first term. The wise custom which limits the President to two terms regards the substance and not the form. Under no circumstances will I be a candidate for or accept another nomination.”
With TR himself having rejected the "second elective term" argument, the advocates of TR in 1912 argued that "When a man says at breakfast in the morning, "No, thank you, I will not take any more coffee,” it does not mean that he will not take any more coffee to-morrow morning, or next week, or next month, or next year." https://books.google.com/books?id=8cikgD2L_90C&pg=PA169 This gave rise to a large number of "third cup of coffee" jokes for the rest of TR's life: https://www.google.com/search?biw=1...-ab..1.3.435...33i299k1j33i10k1.0.KuVwkxvPMM8
And of course the inevitable cartoons:
TR's own explanation:
As pointed out by other commentators here and in similar threads, the key to Roosevelt becoming President again in 1913 is to win the Republican nomination. Roosevelt as the Republican nominee is not certain to win, since the Democrats were making gains and Taft supporters would be bitter, but he would have a good chance of winning a close election. During that period (really before the Great Depression), there seems to have been a hard ceiling on the Democratic nationwide vote percentage in the high 40s, though given the relatively robust Socialist vote in 1912 the winner of that election was going to be a nationwide popular vote plurality winner. I did an analysis of this in another comment thread, and in electoral vote terms it would come down to who carried New York, which would be really close (IOTL 41% Wilson 28% Taft 24% TR -mirroring the national results except the positions of Taft and Roosevelt are switched, and four years later New York would be a Hughes state).
Roosevelt winning as a third party candidate is really unlikely but not impossible -Wilson's nationwide popular vote margin over Roosevelt was 14%. However, it is unlikely Wilson can be pushed much lower than his OTL 41% nationwide popular vote percentage. Only Cox and Davis on the receiving end of the 1920s GOP landslides, after Wilson reneged on his promise and took the USA into World War I, got lower nationwide popular vote percentages in that era. The best way to do it is to manufacture a major and well publicized scandal surrounding Wilson that knocks his nationwide popular vote percentage into Cox territory, and more importantly swings half of Taft's voters over to Roosevelt to make sure of blocking Wilson. Another possibility is a situation where Taft in fact agrees to stand aside for Roosevelt, maybe he is promised nomination to the next Supreme Court vacancy, but the stand-pat faction of the party forces through the nomination of Taft specifically to spoil the election. Taft does not wage a campaign, but due to being on the ballot and there being an anti-TR faction among the Republicans, still gets a significant vote share, say 14%, just not enough to actually spoil the election.
Roosevelt winning as a third party candidate is really unlikely but not impossible -Wilson's nationwide popular vote margin over Roosevelt was 14%. However, it is unlikely Wilson can be pushed much lower than his OTL 41% nationwide popular vote percentage. Only Cox and Davis on the receiving end of the 1920s GOP landslides, after Wilson reneged on his promise and took the USA into World War I, got lower nationwide popular vote percentages in that era. The best way to do it is to manufacture a major and well publicized scandal surrounding Wilson that knocks his nationwide popular vote percentage into Cox territory, and more importantly swings half of Taft's voters over to Roosevelt to make sure of blocking Wilson. Another possibility is a situation where Taft in fact agrees to stand aside for Roosevelt, maybe he is promised nomination to the next Supreme Court vacancy, but the stand-pat faction of the party forces through the nomination of Taft specifically to spoil the election. Taft does not wage a campaign, but due to being on the ballot and there being an anti-TR faction among the Republicans, still gets a significant vote share, say 14%, just not enough to actually spoil the election.
Why should a scandal have that effect?ll
The weaker Wilson is, the easier it will be to unseat him in 1916, which makes him the ideal choice from the Republican point of view. In 1912 he priority is stopping TR, but at the same time they don't want the Democratic winner to be too strong. A weak, scandal-ridden Wilson will be perfect to keep the seat warm for Hughes, or whoever the GOP noinates four years hence.
Unless he gets a second nomination, and unseats TR in 1916, which is entirely possible if TR is suspected of wanting to bring America into the war.
Keep in mind that Germany's resumption of USW - the action which made war politically possible - came only in Feb 1917, by which time TR might well be a lame duck.
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True. But I think if Roosevelt wins 1912, then he'd more than likely hand pick a candidate to be the Republican Nominee. Whoever that is would in theory have similar ideals to Roosevelt's own.
But that doesn't necessarily fix the problem. If this handpicked candidate is suspected of wanting to go to war, he will be defeated, just asTR himself would be. It's the danger of war tha voters will be objecting to, not particularly the man.