HMS EAGLE in the Falklands

[AlanJWhite]

Considering the F-22 didn't fly until 1990, and didn't reach Sqn service until 2005 and we're talking about a post Falklands pod up to the 1990's would it actually matter especially as Being are still making improved versions.

Then if so willing, the UK goes wityh the F-35 . . . or develops this instead, the Tempest.

You mean these . . . the F-15/E?

or these . . . the F-16?

Great planes one and all ... only None ... except for the F-35C CARRIER capable and iTTL the UK can't wait for that
(let alone the napkin ware that is the Tempest )

With a different POD they are real possibilities (which would make great threads if you want to write them )
but here, irrelevant I'm afraid

 

[SsgtC]

Great planes one and all ... only None ... except for the F-35C CARRIER capable and iTTL the UK can't wait for that
(let alone the napkin ware that is the Tempest )

With a different POD they are real possibilities (which would make great threads if you want to write them )
but here, irrelevant I'm afraid

Considering that the FAA and RAF have chosen different versions of the Hornet and the proposed "Joint Force Hornet" was DOA, your entire argument has already been invalidated. For all intents and purposes, they're already operating different aircraft. So going with F-15s or eventually F-22s is not the insurmountable mountain you're making it out to be

 

[Pseudo]

Considering the F-22 didn't fly until 1990, and didn't reach Sqn service until 2005 and we're talking about a post Falklands pod up to the 1990's would it actually matter especially as Being are still making improved versions.

Then if so willing, the UK goes wityh the F-35 . . . or develops this instead, the Tempest.

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The UK wouldn't have the expertise or capability to produce the Tempest since if the UK buys the F-15 rather than proceeding with the Eurofighter, the experience and knowledge of producing a complex combat jet would be lost when the generation of engineers and designers that developed the Tornado move on to other careers or retire. As experience has fairly recently taught the British defence industry, regenerating key skills in design and engineering lead to significant increases in cost and delays in development. When you're talking about adding those significant costs and delays to an already eye-wateringly expensive project like a fifth or sixth generation fighter that you can't guarantee that you'll be producing more than a few hundred of then it becomes pretty inconceivable that a British government would consider going down that road.

 

[Spencersj345.346]

That would only happen if the UK again refused to share the development costs of the Raptor. Enough has changed ITTL that they may be fully willing to pitch in on the development and thus be able to purchase the F-22

Indeed the US was looking for partners in the F-22 program in this time period, and if I understand correctly it wasn't the Pentagon who decided not selling F-22 to anyone was a good idea but as usual Congress just had to screw things up, if they hadn't I could easily see around five to six hundred Raptors being built(and possibly more) dramatically lowering the per unit cost when factoring in R@D. Heck production costs were starting to lower by a pretty fair margin when the Obama Administration killed any future orders. Plus a naval version isn't impossible if both the USN and RN decide they want it sometime during the 90s

 

[WILDGEESE]

The UK wouldn't have the expertise or capability to produce the Tempest since if the UK buys the F-15 rather than proceeding with the Eurofighter, the experience and knowledge of producing a complex combat jet would be lost when the generation of engineers and designers that developed the Tornado move on to other careers or retire. As experience has fairly recently taught the British defence industry, regenerating key skills in design and engineering lead to significant increases in cost and delays in development. When you're talking about adding those significant costs and delays to an already eye-wateringly expensive project like a fifth or sixth generation fighter that you can't guarantee that you'll be producing more than a few hundred of then it becomes pretty inconceivable that a British government would consider going down that road.

As I stated in an earlier post

It hasn't stopped Japan from producing their own designs (Kawasaki C-1 & C-2 transports, T-4 trainer & P-1 patrol aircraft, Mitsubishi F-1, NAMC trainer)

or South Korea from producing the KAI 50 & 100 trainers!

or Taiwan from producing their AIDC-CK fighter and AT-3 trainer!

And what have these nations all got in common? . . . . they have continually license produced US designs!

 

[AlanJWhite]

Considering that the FAA and RAF have chosen different versions of the Hornet and the proposed "Joint Force Hornet" was DOA, your entire argument has already been invalidated. For all intents and purposes, they're already operating different aircraft. So going with F-15s or eventually F-22s is not the insurmountable mountain you're making it out to be

If iTTL as written,
the RAF were to go for F-15C followed by F-22 then it will need yet another hi-tech attack aircraft since these planes initially have no attack capability.
Indeed even later batches are arguably still inadequate and certainly not cost-effective in that role.

The RAF could indeed take the F-15E for some or all of its needs in the TTL 2000s, but that would not make a case for F-22s in the 2020s
Rather the opposite IMHO. F-35s are more probable given the choices made by Singapore and others.

As to the idea of making all UK fast jets carrier-capable being moot compared to the TTL as written.
It was my own suggestion (though not my original idea ) and intended as a criticism of the TTL as written
. .. in essence, a missed opportunity with minimal costs and great benefits in the case another distant deployment

Having said that, I do think the principle holds in any case ... including OTL
and the new carriers Plus the mix of F-35s we are choosing to buy is a total CF,
nearly as disastrous to UK defence as the Eurofighter.

 

[Spencersj345.346]

Of course if more F-22s are ordered(and built) and multiple nations do said orders the FB-22 proposal might take off.

 

[CV12Hornet]

As I stated in an earlier post

It hasn't stopped Japan from producing their own designs (Kawasaki C-1 & C-2 transports, T-4 trainer & P-1 patrol aircraft, Mitsubishi F-1, NAMC trainer)

or South Korea from producing the KAI 50 & 100 trainers!

or Taiwan from producing their AIDC-CK fighter and AT-3 trainer!

And what have these nations all got in common? . . . . they have continually license produced US designs!

Y'know what else all these nations got in common?

They never bothered to develop their own high-end fighter jets. Even the F-1 is a warmed-over supersonic trainer comparable to the Jaguar or F-5 - not a full-on twin-engine heavy stealth fighter like the Tempest. The AIDC-CK isn't much better, was cut as soon as F-16s and Mirage 2000s were available, and relied heavily on cooperation with American companies for key systems and the aerodynamics.

Now, Korea and Japan are trying to develop their own stealth fighters. Time will tell if they can manage that. Personally, I'm skeptical.

 

[AlanJWhite]

Of course if more F-22s are ordered(and built) and multiple nations do said orders the FB-22 proposal might take off.

Hardly likely ... for attack missions, low cost multiple drone platforms are better for nations of all sizes on the battlefield
with cruise missiles for deep strikes on worthwhile targets.
and if there are few/no attack aircraft, who needs expensive fighters anyway

Well, thats the theory. I'll wait and see if it works 🙄

 

[SsgtC]

Indeed the US was looking for partners in the F-22 program in this time period, and if I understand correctly it wasn't the Pentagon who decided not selling F-22 to anyone was a good idea but as usual Congress just had to screw things up, if they hadn't I could easily see around five to six hundred Raptors being built(and possibly more) dramatically lowering the per unit cost when factoring in R@D. Heck production costs were starting to lower by a pretty fair margin when the Obama Administration killed any future orders. Plus a naval version isn't impossible if both the USN and RN decide they want it sometime during the 90s

With the US not having to foot the entire development bill, and orders from say the UK and Canada (and maybe Australia), we probably see just the USAF with 500+ Raptors. IIRC, they wanted around 750 originally to replace the F-15A and C models on basically a one to one basis. If the UK buys into the program, that's potentially another 150-300 airframes and if Canada does, that's another 60-100. Australia could potentially be anywhere from 20 to 100+. And this doesn't even consider the potential for the FB-22 to be developed to replace the approximately 100-200 F-111s in service in the US and Australia

 

[Spencersj345.346]

With the US not having to foot the entire development bill, and orders from say the UK and Canada (and maybe Australia), we probably see just the USAF with 500+ Raptors. IIRC, they wanted around 750 originally to replace the F-15A and C models on basically a one to one basis. If the UK buys into the program, that's potentially another 150-300 airframes and if Canada does, that's another 60-100. Australia could potentially be anywhere from 20 to 100+. And this doesn't even consider the potential for the FB-22 to be developed to replace the approximately 100-200 F-111s in service in the US and Australia

And the Israelis will probably want a few squadrons worth as per otl or at 60 planes, and then throw in Japan wanting at least that many as well

 

[SsgtC]

And the Israelis will probably want a few squadrons worth as per otl or at 60 planes, and then throw in Japan wanting at least that many as well

Actually, Israel may not get it. The biggest reason for the ban on export sales was the threat of Israel reselling the tech to China. Something they were largely suspected of doing in regards to the J-10.

 

[Spencersj345.346]

Actually, Israel may not get it. The biggest reason for the ban on export sales was the threat of Israel reselling the tech to China. Something they were largely suspected of doing in regards to the J-10.

maybe make the terms of the sales as such that if the technology is sold to China all aid and military sales to Israel by the US are to cease for a decade and write it into law. That should get them to behave

 

[SsgtC]

maybe make the terms of the sales as such that if the technology is sold to China all aid and military sales to Israel by the US are to cease for a decade and write it into law. That should get them to behave

More likely it just won't be sold in the Middle East. Eventually Japan, S Korea and Singapore might buy some.

 

[Blue cat]

More likely it just won't be sold in the Middle East. Eventually Japan, S Korea and Singapore might buy some.

It also occurs to me that Israel for example might be perceived as be far more likely to actually use the F22 in manner that might lead to the technology being compromised (ie. an air craft is lost over hostile territory, and US forces are not on hand to attempt to recover of destroy the wreckage) than a country such as Canada.

IMHO the likely hood of Canada using any of its of its fast jets in a non NORAD combat role without the US being involved is very low.

 

[Pseudo]

Oh, wow. Raptors everywhere, eh?

 

[SsgtC]

Oh, wow. Raptors everywhere, eh?

Not really, no. Those are just countries that could be interested if the per unit price had come down due to a larger buy and more customers willing to pick up some of the development costs. They're also countries that were interested in the F-22 in OTL.

 

[Athelstane]

Indeed the US was looking for partners in the F-22 program in this time period, and if I understand correctly it wasn't the Pentagon who decided not selling F-22 to anyone was a good idea but as usual Congress just had to screw things up, if they hadn't I could easily see around five to six hundred Raptors being built(and possibly more) dramatically lowering the per unit cost when factoring in R@D. Heck production costs were starting to lower by a pretty fair margin when the Obama Administration killed any future orders. Plus a naval version isn't impossible if both the USN and RN decide they want it sometime during the 90s

Right. This is often forgotten now.

But if Britain had jumped on board early enough, that might have been enough to modify Congress's action in this regard in '97. Britain had and still has a special relationship that would give them a favorable edge that even Japan and Israel do not enjoy.

Now, I don't say that British participation in the Raptor would have opened the door to the Israelis or the Japanese - I *tend* to doubt it. But even if it's only Britain in the program, that would still considerably lower F-22 production costs, as you say, and that in turn may have allowed the political room for the Air Force to acquire more than the 187 it ended up with OTL.

 

[SsgtC]

Right. This is often forgotten now.

But if Britain had jumped on board early enough, that might have been enough to modify Congress's action in this regard in '97. Britain had and still has a special relationship that would give them a favorable edge that even Japan and Israel do not enjoy.

Now, I don't say that British participation in the Raptor would have opened the door to the Israelis or the Japanese - I *tend* to doubt it. But even if it's only Britain in the program, that would still considerably lower F-22 production costs, as you say, and that in turn may have allowed the political room for the Air Force to acquire more than the 187 it ended up with OTL.

Exactly. I think it would get evaluated on a case by case basis for export with the UK being allowed to purchase for the simple fact that they helped foot the bill to develop it. Assuming the author decides to go that route. That butterfly could then lead to Canada purchasing some as the aircraft is perfect for their role in NORAD. I don't think Israel would ever get any, or at least not before a 6th Generation fighter is entering service. Nor do I think any other country in the Middle East would get any. Japan might get some sometime around 2015-2020. That would trigger South Korea and Singapore into wanting the aircraft as well (they still don't trust Japan and damn near insist on having equipment equal to or better than Japan does). Australia may also want them as China becomes more of a threat, but that's more long term, they probably wouldn't order any before about 2005 or so and maybe even later.

 

[Cryhavoc101]

Right. This is often forgotten now.

But if Britain had jumped on board early enough, that might have been enough to modify Congress's action in this regard in '97. Britain had and still has a special relationship that would give them a favorable edge that even Japan and Israel do not enjoy.

Now, I don't say that British participation in the Raptor would have opened the door to the Israelis or the Japanese - I *tend* to doubt it. But even if it's only Britain in the program, that would still considerably lower F-22 production costs, as you say, and that in turn may have allowed the political room for the Air Force to acquire more than the 187 it ended up with OTL.

The real reason 187 were made and not hundred more is because production was spread across 48 states not in the interests of the project but simply for Political reasons.

Had their been a true and proper bidding process the cost per aircraft would almost certainly have come down and dare I say it the quality of some of the kit used in building it would have gone up as well as fewer delays resulting in production overruns further driving up the costs.

The other issue of course is that F15 still ruled the roost as Chinese and Russian super fighter had (and arguably still have not) yet to emerge in any real numbers - so there was no need for it!

Also Britain had a few issues of their own that had upset the cousins - that is sharing super secret stuff with the Spanish (IIRC) - after promising not to

I think this might have been related to the Euro-fighter project - so this last bit might not be relevant if the British instead of develop the EFA/Eurofighter jump in with the USA during the late 80s.

We might see the Germans go joint project with the French but not sure what happens after the wall comes down