Deleted member 1487
What if the He 111 was given production equality with the Ju 88 bomber in 1939? In that year the Ju 88 'Wunderbomber' was given vast resources (some sources claim over 50% of aircraft production capacity) to be Germany's main bomber, but due to various technical problems during initial construction only a handful were built in 1939 before ramping up significantly in 1940.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Junkers_Ju_88#Design_and_development
The He 111 was a proven design by 1939 and had reached its definitive H-series by early 1939; it had better range than the A1 version of the Ju88 and a larger bomb load; later it was to have lower losses than the Ju88 during the Battle of Britain and had heavier defensive armament.
So if in 1938-9 the decision was made to have a 'balanced' air force by balancing bomber production equally between the He111 and Ju88, what would that mean for production and the Luftwaffe's combat potential? Let's assume some of the great capacity for the He111 comes from phasing out the Do17 in 1938, so that by 1939 that capacity has been shifted over to the He111 and Heinkel also doesn't produce any Ju88s, which he did historically. Instead his factories focus entirely on the He111.
As far as I can tell the He 111 was pretty easy to produce compared to more other aircraft in Germany's inventory, especially compared to the early Ju 88. It also had a lower airframe weight than the Ju88 by 1000kg.
So by increasing the He 111's production capacity in 1938-9 instead of just building up enormous Ju 88 capacity, which wasn't utilized until 1940, the overall number of Germany's bombers going into 1940 would be significantly higher than historical numbers. They would either have greater reserves of aircraft and parts or higher front line strength. Also during the BoB and Blitz there would be more aircraft in the air thanks to either larger reserves and spare parts or more formations in service. Potentially the extra He 111s would have greater survivability than the Ju88s considering the historic loss rates of the types during the BoB.
The LW would have more aircraft with longer range and bigger bomb load in 1940-1 until the Ju88A4 came online and improved the Ju 88's range and bomb load. In the long term the cost would be fewer Ju 88s, which would have its consequences for night fighter and heavy fighter units, but as far as bombers went the He 111 soldiered on well into 1944 on the Eastern Front. I imagine eventually the He 111 would be phased down and out in favor of the Ju 88 airframe; still in the short term for the Western Campaigns and in the first two-three years of Barbarossa the extra He 111s would come in handy, as the extra aircraft in the sky, even if of inferior type, would be at a time when the Luftwaffe mostly managed to achieve air superiority, so it would be a boon rather than a hinderance.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_aircraft_production_during_World_War_II
Given these historical numbers, let's say the following changes are made:
The Do17 is not produced in 1939. Instead some 1000 He111Hs are made, which is slightly more than double the historical number, thanks to no Do17s AND some of the Ju88 capacity being shifted to the He111.
In 1940 there are about 1800 He111s produced and 1500 Ju88 bombers (fighter version still produced).
In 1941 there are 2000 He111s and 1800 Ju88 bombers.
In 1942 there are 2200 He111s and 2000 Ju88 bombers.
In 1943 there are around 2000 He111s and 2000 Ju88s, with Ju188s entering production.
In 1944 production drops off with 900 He11s and 1000 Ju88/188 bombers.
What do you all think? Would the extra He 111s and fewer Ju88s make a difference? Would the extra bomber output make difference in 1939-44?
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Junkers_Ju_88#Design_and_development
Production was delayed drastically by developmental problems. Although planned for a service introduction in 1938, the Ju 88 finally entered squadron service (with only 12 aircraft) on the first day of the attack on Poland in 1939. Production was painfully slow, with only one Ju 88 manufactured per week, as problems continually kept cropping up.
The He 111 was a proven design by 1939 and had reached its definitive H-series by early 1939; it had better range than the A1 version of the Ju88 and a larger bomb load; later it was to have lower losses than the Ju88 during the Battle of Britain and had heavier defensive armament.
So if in 1938-9 the decision was made to have a 'balanced' air force by balancing bomber production equally between the He111 and Ju88, what would that mean for production and the Luftwaffe's combat potential? Let's assume some of the great capacity for the He111 comes from phasing out the Do17 in 1938, so that by 1939 that capacity has been shifted over to the He111 and Heinkel also doesn't produce any Ju88s, which he did historically. Instead his factories focus entirely on the He111.
As far as I can tell the He 111 was pretty easy to produce compared to more other aircraft in Germany's inventory, especially compared to the early Ju 88. It also had a lower airframe weight than the Ju88 by 1000kg.
So by increasing the He 111's production capacity in 1938-9 instead of just building up enormous Ju 88 capacity, which wasn't utilized until 1940, the overall number of Germany's bombers going into 1940 would be significantly higher than historical numbers. They would either have greater reserves of aircraft and parts or higher front line strength. Also during the BoB and Blitz there would be more aircraft in the air thanks to either larger reserves and spare parts or more formations in service. Potentially the extra He 111s would have greater survivability than the Ju88s considering the historic loss rates of the types during the BoB.
The LW would have more aircraft with longer range and bigger bomb load in 1940-1 until the Ju88A4 came online and improved the Ju 88's range and bomb load. In the long term the cost would be fewer Ju 88s, which would have its consequences for night fighter and heavy fighter units, but as far as bombers went the He 111 soldiered on well into 1944 on the Eastern Front. I imagine eventually the He 111 would be phased down and out in favor of the Ju 88 airframe; still in the short term for the Western Campaigns and in the first two-three years of Barbarossa the extra He 111s would come in handy, as the extra aircraft in the sky, even if of inferior type, would be at a time when the Luftwaffe mostly managed to achieve air superiority, so it would be a boon rather than a hinderance.
http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/German_aircraft_production_during_World_War_II
Given these historical numbers, let's say the following changes are made:
The Do17 is not produced in 1939. Instead some 1000 He111Hs are made, which is slightly more than double the historical number, thanks to no Do17s AND some of the Ju88 capacity being shifted to the He111.
In 1940 there are about 1800 He111s produced and 1500 Ju88 bombers (fighter version still produced).
In 1941 there are 2000 He111s and 1800 Ju88 bombers.
In 1942 there are 2200 He111s and 2000 Ju88 bombers.
In 1943 there are around 2000 He111s and 2000 Ju88s, with Ju188s entering production.
In 1944 production drops off with 900 He11s and 1000 Ju88/188 bombers.
What do you all think? Would the extra He 111s and fewer Ju88s make a difference? Would the extra bomber output make difference in 1939-44?