Had Hughes Won in 1916, Would He Have Any Chance of Re-Election?

Amadeus

There's a general opinion on this forum that had Hughes beaten Wilson in 1916 and taken the US into WW1, he would most likely have lost in 1920 due to the bad economy, rioting, and backlash against internationalism that plagued Wilson and helped elect Harding by a wide margin. However, was there any realistic chance that Hughes could've won again in 1920? If not, then who would he face in 1920 and would the Democrats have dominated the following decade as the GOP did in this period?
 

David T

Hughes would have one advantage Wilson lacked: he could blame Wilson for making the US entry into the War inevitable ("if only he had kept America better prepared," etc.) But I don't think that would be enough to save him in 1920--any peace treaty is going to be unpopular with voters, especially ethnic ones (try satisfying both Germana and Poles or both Italians and South Slavs; and of course the Irish will complain that the treaty doesn't guarantee Ireland's freedom). Moreover, there will almost certainly be the same pattern of wartime boom and inflation followed by depression.

As for who Hughes would face in 1920, perhaps Wilson if not being under the strain of being president in 1919 eliminates his stroke. But it also occurs to me that this may be one of the few times Bryan could win both the nomination and the election. His resignation as Secretary of State and warning that the US was drifting into war would seem prophetic to a lot of people.
 

Amadeus

David T said:
As for who Hughes would face in 1920, perhaps Wilson if not being under the strain of being president in 1919 eliminates his stroke. But it also occurs to me that this may be one of the few times Bryan could win both the nomination and the election. His resignation as Secretary of State and warning that the US was drifting into war would seem prophetic to a lot of people.
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Both Wilson and Bryan would be dead by 1925. So who they pick for VP would be dealing with the Mississippi Flood in 1927, and if elected in their own right the Great Depression. That makes the Vice-Presidential slot crucial in 1924, and of course 1932 would most likely be a Republican and not a Democratic year.
 

Amadeus

Here is a possible list of Presidents if Hughes carries California and defeats Wilson:

28. Woodrow Wilson (1913-1916), D-NJ
29. Charles Evans Hughes (1916-1920), R-NY
30. Woodrow Wilson (1920-1924), D-NJ
31. Newton D. Baker (1924-1932), D-OH
32. Theodore Roosevelt Jr. (1932-1945), R-NY

In OTL Wilson planned on resigning and appointing Hughes Secretary of State had he lost in 1916. I imagine that Congress may pass a Constitutional amendment eliminating the lame duck period, or at least shortening it more than the 20th Amendment did.
 
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