Quite simply, the best timeline on this board. No doubt about it. Thank you.
Edit: I do quite like the entry for August 19 1980.
Edit: I do quite like the entry for August 19 1980.
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Fear, Loathing and Gumbo on the Campaign Trail '72
- Thread starter Drew
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President Rumsfeld...ACK!
I hope he has his "known unknowns" and "unknown unknowns" figured out in this timeline.
I hope he has his "known unknowns" and "unknown unknowns" figured out in this timeline.
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"Yuri Valdomirovich Andropov, his grey skin hugging his skeletal frame, looked up from the translated text of the American President’s inauguration speech with a steely gaze, his red rimmed eyes as sharp and focused as they had ever been when he was in better health.
“Well, Comrades. I see the question as this,” the General Secretary said in a voice stronger than it had been in months. “Do we wait for them to bring the war to us at a time of their choosing, or do we bring a war to them at a time of our choice?”
Oy.
This is certainly an epically crapsack TL, although I would argue with the poster that said it was worse than For All Time. (But then we have the 80s to get through).
One minor quibble: OTL, the Soviets were rather uncomfortable about invading Poland, which they were very worried would turn into a massive mess, and sighed with relief when Pilduski cracked down on his own. Here, the Soviets and allies invade, and there is no indication of their having any trouble at all save for the fighting at the ship yards. Isn't this a bit Soviet-wanky? At the very least it was going to be a logistical horror show (the invasion of Czechoslovakia was almost embarrasingly messed up in those terms, OTL).
Bruce
“Well, Comrades. I see the question as this,” the General Secretary said in a voice stronger than it had been in months. “Do we wait for them to bring the war to us at a time of their choosing, or do we bring a war to them at a time of our choice?”
Oy.
This is certainly an epically crapsack TL, although I would argue with the poster that said it was worse than For All Time. (But then we have the 80s to get through).
One minor quibble: OTL, the Soviets were rather uncomfortable about invading Poland, which they were very worried would turn into a massive mess, and sighed with relief when Pilduski cracked down on his own. Here, the Soviets and allies invade, and there is no indication of their having any trouble at all save for the fighting at the ship yards. Isn't this a bit Soviet-wanky? At the very least it was going to be a logistical horror show (the invasion of Czechoslovakia was almost embarrasingly messed up in those terms, OTL).
Bruce
I appreciate the irony of Jospin as a leftish, anti-Mitterrand protest candidate in the first round of the impending French presidential election. Will Chirac emerge as Jospin's analogue on the right in this TL? At some point in the next decade, a war between uber-Libya and Egypt would seem plausible.
In any event I find it interesting that Rumsfeld seeks to permanently augment/restore presidential powers, when I've always perceived him as more a wannabe technocrat than a charismatic politician with ample charisma.
In any event I find it interesting that Rumsfeld seeks to permanently augment/restore presidential powers, when I've always perceived him as more a wannabe technocrat than a charismatic politician with ample charisma.
Probably not -- he'll have to go to Congress to get the appropriate legislative action -- and he'll dare them to vote against it. It'll cut the pro-business ones from the liberals pretty quickly (and I don't think the Liberterians will mind this at all -and remember, the first step to squashing a potential rival is to make him your ally).
B_Munro;6147038I said:
No doubt on that - but ITTL they don't have the Afghanistan experience and Andropov, who was not completely in charge in OTL 1980 is this time around - he was hardened by his own experience in Hungary in 1956.
Jaruzelski by the way, Piłsudski being somewhat ripe in the grave for the past forty-five years.
I'm also thinking they're getting tough on any sign of dissent after what happened in Spain - no Polish spring in reverse.
Don't worry, life in Poland won't be easy for the Red Army.
Rummy is a pwerful executive guy - and as for a charisma challenge - don't forget he lost the popular election and only beat Reagan because of RR's impulsive behavior which pissed-off the wrong people.
Why do I fear that I'm going to really miss Reagan when this is all over? Hell, after reading that address, Ithink i already do!
One small quible, however: in OTL Gaylord Nelson's loss to Kasten was brought about by the Reagan landslide, and even then it was a razor-thin victory on the part of Kasten. Although this ATL election is certainly not the OTL 1980 election, but considering this is a TL where Rumsfield didnt even win the popular vote, i don't think hed have the coat tails to drag in Kasten.
Now, if you are determined to bring s Republican into the Senate from Wisconsin, there are a number of other options. AlthoughKasten was very influential in republican circles, he was never able to generate a great deal of popularity with the people of the state. I know I've mentioned him before, but Lee Dreyfus would make an excelent choice. As a popular governor, his status as a political outsider, and a maverick, he would likely be very popular in this ATL.
One small quible, however: in OTL Gaylord Nelson's loss to Kasten was brought about by the Reagan landslide, and even then it was a razor-thin victory on the part of Kasten. Although this ATL election is certainly not the OTL 1980 election, but considering this is a TL where Rumsfield didnt even win the popular vote, i don't think hed have the coat tails to drag in Kasten.
Now, if you are determined to bring s Republican into the Senate from Wisconsin, there are a number of other options. AlthoughKasten was very influential in republican circles, he was never able to generate a great deal of popularity with the people of the state. I know I've mentioned him before, but Lee Dreyfus would make an excelent choice. As a popular governor, his status as a political outsider, and a maverick, he would likely be very popular in this ATL.
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I've asked about Dreyfus before in this thread. Should he have won the 1980 Senate race, it'd be the second time in a row he beat Kasten in a Republican primary!
Awesome update Drew, I am already looking forward to the next chapter of the story and the eighties!
The strategic situation of the United States is very bad TTL since in addition to troubles abroad, it is also very clear that the American economy has yet to recover from its massive downturn of the seventies. While this has not been covered in great details yet we can already safely say that at least computing and the airline industry have greatly suffered TTL and that all other sectors of the economy have taken a battering. Consumers electronics is probably a few years behind OTL now already.
Europe potential will be even lower than it became OTL. Spain transition to democracy was exemplary OTL, in the sense that the losers did not try to have a free go at the winners and to turn the clock back to the Spanish Republic. This won't happen TTL however and we can also look forward to very socialistic policies being implemented in all sectors of the economy. The pension system will be very generous and the public sector will provide employment to the "victims" of Franco's policies. Twenty years down the line, this will have the effect of turning Spain into a huge mess even worse than today. The same story will repeat itself in Portugal, Greece and possibly even Italy too.
South Africa/Rhodesia will fight on through sheer determination. As it stands, units like the Selous Scouts were very successful OTL and will be even more so TTL with a more "hands off" approach. The problem is that for evey terrorist killed by them, there will be another one to replace him. I think that the black rebels will run out of men eventualy, but the cost to the white minority governments will be pretty steep too.
The strategic situation of the United States is very bad TTL since in addition to troubles abroad, it is also very clear that the American economy has yet to recover from its massive downturn of the seventies. While this has not been covered in great details yet we can already safely say that at least computing and the airline industry have greatly suffered TTL and that all other sectors of the economy have taken a battering. Consumers electronics is probably a few years behind OTL now already.
Europe potential will be even lower than it became OTL. Spain transition to democracy was exemplary OTL, in the sense that the losers did not try to have a free go at the winners and to turn the clock back to the Spanish Republic. This won't happen TTL however and we can also look forward to very socialistic policies being implemented in all sectors of the economy. The pension system will be very generous and the public sector will provide employment to the "victims" of Franco's policies. Twenty years down the line, this will have the effect of turning Spain into a huge mess even worse than today. The same story will repeat itself in Portugal, Greece and possibly even Italy too.
South Africa/Rhodesia will fight on through sheer determination. As it stands, units like the Selous Scouts were very successful OTL and will be even more so TTL with a more "hands off" approach. The problem is that for evey terrorist killed by them, there will be another one to replace him. I think that the black rebels will run out of men eventualy, but the cost to the white minority governments will be pretty steep too.
I've asked about Dreyfus before in this thread. Should he have won the 1980 Senate race, it'd be the second time in a row he beat Kasten in a Republican primary!
Which would be fun; ol Landslide Kasten certain would have it coming
Another alternative to Dreyfus (who would only be half way through his first term as Governor in 1980; although, he might make the decision to run if he felt his work as governor had been largely taken care of) would be Terry Kohler, who was beat by Kasten in the 1980 Republican primary. Kohler was the son and grandson of former, popular, governors of Wisconsin and was a moderate.
Since Drew has the Dems carrying Wisconsin in the presidential election, I think the only way to get a Republican to win the Senate would be for the Republican candidate to be someone who is popular and charasmatic in their own right (enough so that there is a substantial cross-over vote for him/her)
John Farson
Banned
Just read Rumsfeld's inaugural address. It's no wonder that it scared everyone, Americans and foreigners alike. I think the closest analogue to it would be Wilhelm II's infamous Daily Telegraph affair of 1908. Unlike Kaiser Billy, Rummy has far more power here, and hence is far more dangerous. I take it the speech wasn't taken very well in France, Italy, Spain and Greece, yes? Particularly since the latter two are still recovering from fascist dictatorships, and the Italians might very well interpret the speech as Rummy endorsing the far right-wing coup of 1979. Western Europe in general has lots of reasons to be wary of Rumsfeld.
I presume George Kennan didn't take the speech very well, considering his thoughts on containment earlier in the update.
First of all, the monarchy in Spain became irrevocably tainted by association with the Phalangists, hence the Republic. Second, the fascists have brought Spain to the very brink of ruin ITTL, so it's only logical that the new government would try to repair their (myriad) mistakes. And, yes, Franco's policies had plenty of victims. So many in fact that the 3rd Republic ITTL is trying to locate all the mass graves and is busy trying to fix the country after 40 years of fascist dictatorship, regressive social policies and mismanagement, as well as dealing with the Basques (who were given plenty of reasons to distrust the Spanish state).
Did you use the word "terrorist" as in terrorist from the White minority governments' POV? Because "one man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter" and all that. Also, with Mandela's death in prison the South Africans/Rhodesians have crossed the moral event horizon, if they indeed haven't already crossed it. As I've predicted in previous posts, as the war heats up the SA/Rhodesian governments will be increasingly looked upon as the real terrorists. Depending on how bad things go, they may eventually be likened to Nazis.
I presume George Kennan didn't take the speech very well, considering his thoughts on containment earlier in the update.
First of all, the monarchy in Spain became irrevocably tainted by association with the Phalangists, hence the Republic. Second, the fascists have brought Spain to the very brink of ruin ITTL, so it's only logical that the new government would try to repair their (myriad) mistakes. And, yes, Franco's policies had plenty of victims. So many in fact that the 3rd Republic ITTL is trying to locate all the mass graves and is busy trying to fix the country after 40 years of fascist dictatorship, regressive social policies and mismanagement, as well as dealing with the Basques (who were given plenty of reasons to distrust the Spanish state).
Did you use the word "terrorist" as in terrorist from the White minority governments' POV? Because "one man's terrorist is another man's freedom fighter" and all that. Also, with Mandela's death in prison the South Africans/Rhodesians have crossed the moral event horizon, if they indeed haven't already crossed it. As I've predicted in previous posts, as the war heats up the SA/Rhodesian governments will be increasingly looked upon as the real terrorists. Depending on how bad things go, they may eventually be likened to Nazis.
Not general secretary till 1982, OTL...he was one of the top guys in the circle around the increasingly senile Breshnev, right?
Oops.
Yeah, I wasn't complaining about them _doing_ it, but about the apparent level of ease in the actual execution, which seems to indicate the leadership OTL were a bunch of silly worry-warts.
I'd expect it to have been troublesome from the start...
(Awesome TL, even if I quibble)
Bruce
John Farson
Banned
About that last Rumsfeld/Cheney memo:
So what the memo basically means is that they (and others) are plotting to subvert the US political system and basically turn the US into a 1-Party state, with the best scenario being a Japan-like system (with the problems it entails), and the worst being a corrupt, authoritarian 1-Party kleptocracy a'la Mexico under the PRI, correct?
Yeah, nothing wrong with that scenario whatsoever...
EDIT: By the way, Rummy is now the first one to become president with less than 40% of the popular vote since Lincoln, though Lincoln at least won a plurality in his election.
So what the memo basically means is that they (and others) are plotting to subvert the US political system and basically turn the US into a 1-Party state, with the best scenario being a Japan-like system (with the problems it entails), and the worst being a corrupt, authoritarian 1-Party kleptocracy a'la Mexico under the PRI, correct?
Yeah, nothing wrong with that scenario whatsoever...
EDIT: By the way, Rummy is now the first one to become president with less than 40% of the popular vote since Lincoln, though Lincoln at least won a plurality in his election.
The main problem here is that instead of the "Monarchist compromise" we have had OTL. Here the "us against them" mentality that led to the Spanish civil war is reignited and this can only lead to further resentment and misgivings in the future from both sides, as hopes are quashed and such.
In all dictatorships there are genuine victims as well as not so genuine victims, both during the dictatorship and after the dictatorship when the tables are turned around. An easy way for the socialists to both compensate victims and to reward supporters. Will be public service jobs and jobs in the nationalised companies since large scale nationalisations are likely in my opinion.
The long term economic consequences of this could very well turn out to be very negative and blow against Spain competitivity during the years and decades to come.
OTL neither Spain, Portugal nor Greece really managed to catch up with northern Europe economies and GDP per capita by the 1990s and 2000s. This catch up has now been made far more difficult by the recent economic downturn.
TTL all three countries will be even more backwards and one has even gone communist All three are also far more divided than they were OTL politically. I would consequently not be surprised if by TTL 2000 the Spanish GDP per capita is only 75% of the French one unlike nearly 90% OTL.
This will mean more emigration and even more ageing down the line ...
I used the word terrorist in relation to the Zimbabwean rebels.
The South Africans/Rhodesians have certainly gone much further than they did OTL, but in a way the wider world situation is somewhat more favourable for them than it was OTL. Do not underestimate the strenght of fanaticism in a community whose back is against a wall. The South African/Rhodesians have far superior discipline, training and armament (up to a point only) going for them. The fact that the gloves are off with regards to weapons of mass destruction such as gas favors them as well, since the opponents won't have these unless supplied by the Soviets.
We also have a fledging "Anticommunist coalition" forming up between South Africa - Rhodesia - Chile - Taiwan - South Vietnam - South Korea - Israel. This mean a harder blockade of South Africa/Rhodesia and even direct discreet support on the field from these allied nations as well. Economically this also gives some breathing space to the South Africa/Rhodesian by allowing an outlet for raw materials and mineral exports.
The South African and the Rhodesian have crossed boundaries they did not cross OTL. But the best policy for the west TTL is to live and let live there. They simply have too many other problems closer to home and home at that to do anything about it.
Garrison
Donor
It may take 10 or 20 years but eventually the white minorities in Africa will be dead or fled. OTL only the existence of the likes of Mandela wiling to seek compromise prevented things getting ugly and ITTL there will be no such brakes. You talk about the fanaticism of the whites, do you really think the black majority are going to be less determined, less willing to die? And for all the appalling WMDs the whites might have they will not win the war any more than gassing Iranians worked for the Iraqis in OTL. In the end sheer numbers will bury the Rhodesians and South Africans; any other outcome is just a fantasy.
John Farson
Banned
Yes, and one has to also take into account the enormous resources that the South Africans have to spend on domestic security to clamp down on the black majority, every one of whom is a potential fifth column as far as the military is concerned.
This issue is even more dire in Rhodesia, where the White 3% have to worry about the other 97% they're lording over, more and more of whom are being driven into the arms of the ZPLA as the Bursey and Malan regimes' atrocities mount.
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