Fear, Loathing and Gumbo on the Campaign Trail '72
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Thande
Donor
They're Republican-majority on Drew's spreadsheet so I imagine that's an error on his part. If he'll give me new figures I can change the map.
Massachusetts votes for Rumsfeld?
I guess that's with 40-something percent, and a spoiler effect from the We The People party?
I guess that's with 40-something percent, and a spoiler effect from the We The People party?
Thande
Donor
If you download my spreadsheet you can see all the percentages. In this case Massachusetts went 39.1% Democratic, 40.5% Republican and 14.6% We The People. Remember however that what with one thing and another (McKeithen and Wallace) the political realignments of OTL have been slowed or muddied in Drew's TL, so New England is still much more natural Republican territory than we think of it today. Granted Massachusetts was one of the parts that drifted away the earliest due to its large Democratic-voting Catholic population, but still. After all, remember that until the 1990s, easily the most reliably Republican voting state, never abandoning the party even during FDR's landslides and only doing so for LBJ's wipeout, was Vermont.
Fanaticism is not an answer to tanks, planes, nerve gas and machine guns I am afraid.
The fighting performance of most rebels movements whether in Angola, Mozambique and Rhodesia was average OTL since they all lacked training and discipline. It is also worth noting that in none of these cases did South Africa fully involve itself in these conflicts. While South Africa did got a bloody nose in Angola during the eighties, it was only because of massive direct Cuban help to the rebels.
The whites while fanatical are also not stupid and you can bet that in the case of Rhodesia units like the African rifles will still be operational. So will the Selous Scouts too and these guys were not pushovers at all, they routinely killed hundreds of insurgents in search and destroy raids.
South Africa might be spending more money on internal security, but they will find some willing auxilliaries in the bantoustans who will be willing to "betray their race" for some amount of political power.
Now if the Soviets decide to help the rebels directly, things might change then but they will have other fishes to fry in China very soon.
John Farson
Banned
Don't forget that the African side, i.e. Angola, Mozambique, Zambia and the ZPLA, will also have those things, except maybe the nerve gas part, although they may also resort to that as retaliation for NRA chemical attacks. And the Soviets will be more than happy to sell more. Drew hasn't been very clear on the frontlines in Botswana, but it would be very easy for the NRA to occupy most of the country, thereby reducing the Botswanan Army to a similar position the Belgian Army was in WWI, relying on their allies, or going to the bush to become guerrillas. Though considering that 70% of the country consists of the Kalahari desert, control of Botswana would really be dependant on control of the central nodes (population centres and highways) rather than the entire area.
Point taken. Yet, the Portuguese are no longer in Angola and Mozambique and haven't been there for almost 40 years, yes? And the Ian Smith regime was unable to keep the blacks down forever. Yes, the Carnation Revolution played a large factor in the ending of the Portuguese colonial wars. However, a large factor behind the Revolution were those very same, endless wars that became a growing drain on the economy and more and more unpopular among the populace. Also in Rhodesia the war eventually became too costly, particularly with the oil shocks and rising White emigration from Rhodesia (which should be even more ITTL as Julius pointed out earlier). In both cases military force alone was unable to win the war for the Portuguese and White Rhodesians, respectively. The rebels didn't have to be great, they just had to be good enough. Or in other words, win the war by not losing.
It would be the same against South Africa. It is in a war it cannot militarily win unless it is ready to physically occupy the countries it is at war with. And even then it wouldn't be enough, as you would then have a whíte population of 5.5 million trying to dominate a hostile or potentially hostile (depending on the region) non-white population of 61.5 million, with the white militaries stretched thin. This is something that simply cannot be achieved without resorting to Draka-level atrocities.
The blacks certainly aren't stupid either, and they can adapt and learn from their mistakes. All those Soviet and East Block advisors will certainly help in that regard. It'll take a few years but they'll eventually get there. Meanwhile, the Selous Scouts and African Rifles will still be operational but for how long? Even they are not Rambos, and they will also take casualties. Only their losses will not be as replaceable as the ZPLA's and their allies, and the manpool will further shrink with white emigration from the worsening hellhole that is TTL's Rhodesia.
No, they'll supply advisors and weapons instead, with other East Block countries supplying potential manpower (like the Cubans).
S. Africa may very well get some auxilliaries, but they will also face increased unrest from the black majority, particularly after Mandela's death, which will convince a lot of moderates that a negotiated solution is impossible and violence is the only alternative. Consequently, Umkhonto we Sizwe may grow from an urban guerrilla force into a general guerrilla army, spreading its tentacles all over S. Africa, from the Bantustans to the black slums and townships, forcing the S. African military to divert more and more men and equipment from the front, leaving the Rhodesians ever more in the lurch.
The war in Southern Africa will be nasty for sures and losses will be plentiful on both sides. In a way the rebels "win" if for every ten insurgents they lose, they manage to kill at least one white soldier or policeman.
But I think that South Africa has a lot of cards it can still play before really facing a desperate situation. It has already been metionned that mercenaries with combat experience are helping the minority regimes. These guys would likely form the nuclei of Selous Scouts type units, launching huge raids against insurgent bases aimed at destroying as much equipment as possible and killing a lot of insurgents.
Taiwanese and say South Korea units would likely be used in just the same way as normal South African and Rhodesian units are used. Their contribution would likely be small, but just 5 000 men would be a lot of Rhodesia to be fair since the entire Rhodesian Army only had about that number of soldiers in peace time.
The South African and Rhodesians will also have air superiority, unless Warsaw Pact and allied units are sent into the theatre. Regardless, military procurement of advanced stuff like planes will be a nightmare for the South Africans.
OTL it is known that cooperation took place between Israel and South Africa in building advanced weapon systems. If Israel chose to build its own fighter plane TTL (it only built one Kfir prototype OTL), then they will have a ready made export market in the shape of South Africa and Rhodesia.
Another factor in the case of South Africa are the Coloureds and Indian minorities. If the white government can co-opt them somehow they would gain some breathing space.
East Asians were granted honorary white status in apartheid South Africa.
Perhaps this could provide a template of sorts for future developments.
If things really go pear shaped, the best the South African/Rhodesians could go would be to attempt a general retreat to the Cape Province. A White rump state could probably survive there in some form almost indefinitely.
But I think that South Africa has a lot of cards it can still play before really facing a desperate situation. It has already been metionned that mercenaries with combat experience are helping the minority regimes. These guys would likely form the nuclei of Selous Scouts type units, launching huge raids against insurgent bases aimed at destroying as much equipment as possible and killing a lot of insurgents.
Taiwanese and say South Korea units would likely be used in just the same way as normal South African and Rhodesian units are used. Their contribution would likely be small, but just 5 000 men would be a lot of Rhodesia to be fair since the entire Rhodesian Army only had about that number of soldiers in peace time.
The South African and Rhodesians will also have air superiority, unless Warsaw Pact and allied units are sent into the theatre. Regardless, military procurement of advanced stuff like planes will be a nightmare for the South Africans.
OTL it is known that cooperation took place between Israel and South Africa in building advanced weapon systems. If Israel chose to build its own fighter plane TTL (it only built one Kfir prototype OTL), then they will have a ready made export market in the shape of South Africa and Rhodesia.
Another factor in the case of South Africa are the Coloureds and Indian minorities. If the white government can co-opt them somehow they would gain some breathing space.
East Asians were granted honorary white status in apartheid South Africa.
Perhaps this could provide a template of sorts for future developments.
If things really go pear shaped, the best the South African/Rhodesians could go would be to attempt a general retreat to the Cape Province. A White rump state could probably survive there in some form almost indefinitely.
Orville_third
Banned
WI the Soviets did what we did in OTL Afghanistan- supply MANPADS to the rebels? (And it might get interesting if they did it in Ireland too...)
IIRC, by the time of the Carnation Revolution, Portugal was only losing the colonial war in Guinea-Bissau. Portugal was winning in Angola and the war was under control in Mozambique.
John Farson
Banned
The same could be said about the Algerian War in 1960-61, yet Algeria became independant in 1962. A guerrilla force can lose a hundred battles yet win the war by just staying in the field and exhausting its opponent.
Thande
Donor
One thing I keep forgetting to ask about is the kung fu craze of the 1970s OTL: did this still happen in TTL, was it changed beyond recognition by different perceptions of China due to the Lesser Mao? I mean, I know the craze was largely driven by Hong Kong, Taiwan and Japan (Japanese adaptations of Chinese stories, like "Journey to the West/Monkey" "The Water Margin") rather than the PRC, but one can imagine that it's hard for Western viewers to sustain their mood and suspension of disbelief when watching fun campy kung fu action films when they're set in a country that the news is telling them is turning into hell on earth. OTOH I suppose there could be 'darker and edgier' counterparts, especially after people become more aware of what the situation is like in China--like a modernised version of "The Water Margin" starring People's Liberation Army rebel outlaws fighting against the Lesser Mao's forces or something like that.
John Farson
Banned
Maybe kung fu movies similar in theme to the Sonny Chiba Street Fighter films would be more in vogue here. A few examples here. Oh yeah, and this one too.
@Dunios - In any event I don't think anyone really thinks that the Rhodesians, IOTL, were not doing about as much as they could already with their internal resources of people, industry, equipment and money.
IMO, the only way to give Rhodesia a better performance than IOTL is for SA to give full and total support the whole way through, along with perhaps a powerful patron off shore who is funding them (e/g guns, money etc).*
Even then, I still don't see Rhodesia going nuclear, unless their patron gives the devices/resources to them
*Or, go for earlier PODs - e.g don't let Portugal follow OTL pathway (even if delaying it slightly) and that alone pushes Rhodesia's survivability into the early 1980s, given that the independence of Mozambique substantially improved the guerilla's position. I've often thought it would be interesting to see how a brief Mozambique UDI regime would change things, while noting it would not be sustainable.
IMO, the only way to give Rhodesia a better performance than IOTL is for SA to give full and total support the whole way through, along with perhaps a powerful patron off shore who is funding them (e/g guns, money etc).*
Even then, I still don't see Rhodesia going nuclear, unless their patron gives the devices/resources to them
*Or, go for earlier PODs - e.g don't let Portugal follow OTL pathway (even if delaying it slightly) and that alone pushes Rhodesia's survivability into the early 1980s, given that the independence of Mozambique substantially improved the guerilla's position. I've often thought it would be interesting to see how a brief Mozambique UDI regime would change things, while noting it would not be sustainable.
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While people were tired of war, one of the reasons for the revolution was that career officers got upset about the advantages in career advancement that were made for conscripted officers (and those officers were usually more conservative than the conscripted, who helped the revolution steer left (and TTL) even more so)) that put them on pair with the former.
John Farson
Banned
And this after 13 years of neverending war, international isolation and financial costs. In the end, the African rebels turned out to be more determined than the Portuguese military.
Not exactly. The Carnation Revolution ended the war, although the troops were fighting despite not agreeing with the war, but the revolution was helped by the loss of popular support for the regime long before the colonial war started. Don't forget the regime had continuously been facing peaceful (and sometimes not so peaceful) internal opposition (of which part were in favour of keeping the colonies as part of Portugal, or at the least in a Commonwealth style of connection). The withdrawal, in the molds it was done, was a result of the far-left hijacking the Revolution.
John Farson
Banned
And maybe a Commonwealth would have been possible, if it hadn't been the Estado Novo that was running Portugal at the time. That they were seriously trying to hold onto Goa against Indian opposition shows how out of touch they were to some extent. And as you pointed out, there was no real national unity in Portugal with regards to the war effort, with the war being unpopular among large segments of the population and many leaving the country to avoid conscription.
As Estado Novo was the driving force behind keeping the African territories as colonies, the war would last as long as the regime lasted. Once it was overthrown, a political solution to the conflict was imminent. All the rebels had to do was wait it out.
Part of the opposition (especially disillusioned former reformist supporters of the regime - a sizeable portion of the population) wanted to keep the war going until a independence through phases in a slow, controlled manner (and without the guerrilla movements), could be achieved, and this was something that everyone to the right of the socialist party (meaning social democrats, centrists, liberals and conservatives) defended. The war would have been kept even with say, a successful revolution orchestrated in the early 60's.
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