And everyone's just... going to be fine with this? Like, I imagine the Nazis, who are already chomping at the bit to kill as many Slavs as they can are going to have a slight issue with not doing a damn thing as the Soviets gain that much control over a resource they were lacking. The Nazis aren't going to be happy being over a barrel like this. Aside from all the other issues with your points, this just makes the Nazis breath takingly stupid for allowing the Soviets, the nation that they're planning to conquer and slaughter is people, that much power over the world's oil supply. There's no logic to it.
Dunkirk Disaster causes Spain and Soviet Union to join Axis.
- Thread starter John Gault
- Start date
And everyone's just... going to be fine with this? Like, I imagine the Nazis, who are already chomping at the bit to kill as many Slavs as they can are going to have a slight issue with not doing a damn thing as the Soviets gain that much control over a resource they were lacking. The Nazis aren't going to be happy being over a barrel like this. Aside from all the other issues with your points, this just makes the Nazis breath takingly stupid for allowing the Soviets, the nation that they're planning to conquer and slaughter is people, that much power over the world's oil supply. There's no logic to it.
Derek Pullem
Donor
Respectfully we have gone through these arguments time and time again. You are not bringing anything new to the table and it's not worth continuing to debate the same PoD over and over again.
You may wave your victory flags across the internet but I'm out of this discussion
You may wave your victory flags across the internet but I'm out of this discussion
A second Molotov Ribbentrop treaty is not beyond the pale of plausible. Certainly Germany was free to give the Soviets the British and French colonies in the middle east and Stalin was likely to say "Danke schön". Ultimately I think there still would have been an attack by one of them against the other.
bguy
Donor
The Soviet invasion was in conjunction with the British. It's going to be quite a bit more difficult without British support . (For one thing a lot of the Iranian military at the time was pro-British and thus did not resist the invasion. That won't be the case if the Soviets are attacking without the British.) The Soviets also only occupied a small portion of northern Iran, so they didn't really have to deal with the lack of developed infrastructure in the rest of the country. (Something they will very much have to deal with if they try to push down towards the oil fields and the straits.)
In 1940 the Middle East was not even close to being the center of world oil production. The United States was by far the largest producer at that time producing around 182 million MT of oil annually. That was followed by the Soviets themselves (30 million MT) and Venezuela (27 million MT). Iran only produced 10 million MT per year (i.e. barely 5% of US production), and Iraq produced even less than that (only 3 million MT.) Oil production didn't even begin in Saudi Arabia until 1941. Thus even if the Soviets take Iran it won't put them in any position to control the world oil price. (Soviet production + Iranian production + Iraqi oil production combined isn't even a quarter of US oil production at that time.)
Once Hitler gets enough planes for air supremacy over Britain he will nuke the Soviets somewhere around 1948.
1960: The Soviets and the Germans split the moon between themselves, with Mars going to the Soviet Union and Venus going to the Reich.
The Germans were nowhere close to a nuclear weapon. They were on the wrong bloody path. It was Jewish science. Why would they suddenly embrace that??????
If Franco joins the Axis he will do so by invading French Morocco (as it almost happened in otl). This will make much more difficult for Petain to surrender to the Germans because one of the reasons for this surrender was the preservation of the French Empire. Even if Petain surrenders it's unlikely that the French generals in North Africa would accept it. It wouldn't be unlikely that they joined the Free France and kept fighting on from there (some of them were quite inclined to do so in otl).
Considering that the French had evacuated plenty of forces to North Africa and that it would take some time for the Germans to get there even if Petain surrenders, it would not be surprising that the French army crushed the Spanish forces in North Africa that were in a sorrowful state at that point.
End result?
- Free France controls Morocco, Tunis and Algiers.
- Franco asks for help to take Gibraltar.
- The RN and the MN blockade the Canary Islands and prepare to invade them.
- Franco asks for help to feed Spain's population.
- Mussolini finds out that he is fighting a war on two fronts in Libya.
- Stalin laughs.
Considering that the French had evacuated plenty of forces to North Africa and that it would take some time for the Germans to get there even if Petain surrenders, it would not be surprising that the French army crushed the Spanish forces in North Africa that were in a sorrowful state at that point.
End result?
- Free France controls Morocco, Tunis and Algiers.
- Franco asks for help to take Gibraltar.
- The RN and the MN blockade the Canary Islands and prepare to invade them.
- Franco asks for help to feed Spain's population.
- Mussolini finds out that he is fighting a war on two fronts in Libya.
- Stalin laughs.
The British Empire ran on cheap Persian oil. The British didn't invade Iran just to transfer supplies to the Soviets but to secure control of their most profitable oil business venture to date. With control of the Persian Gulf the Soviets are going to be the main supplier of oil to the Axis and can charge a premium for it.
Grand Admiral Thrawn
Donor
The British ran on cheap Caribbean oil as well. And cheap Texas oil. For your second point, that weakens Hitler, not strengthens him. He wanted a Germany so strong no nation could bully or blackmail it. Why would he agree to it? You need to do more research to see why and where you went wrong.
And whatever happens at Dunkirk, the Germans were nowhere close to air supremacy over Britain ....
The Germans would have the ME262 in 1945, which would wipe out obsolete British propeller driven planes. Speer estimated the Germans could have a nuke by 1947 if they devoted enough resources to it. At peace in 1942 Germany wouldn't have scuttled the nuke program and have the spare capacity to develop a nuclear weapon.
Disregarding the fact that Germany was no where close to obtaining any type of nuclear weapons, you're saying that the soviets with the best intelligence service in the world is just going to chill there while the Germans obtain air supremacy and nuclear weapons and be cool with it?
nbcman
Donor
Based on occupation noted in the OP's profile (EDIT: I'm an attorney and wannabee historian), there may not be much purpose in engaging with the individual. See the following from a treatise 'Logic for Lawyers':
How does he get the bomb? Aryan "physics" can't produce one. Does he buy one from the Americans?
But did Hitler have prime? Otherwise the bomb may be too expensive.
1) Which relation exactly have 1945 Me-262 with air supremacy as a consequence (as in a logical flow of events) of your weird Dunkirk fetish ?
2) Me-262 is *not* any kind of magic bullet. US and UK also had their programs. They may have been deployed a bit later, but for every Me-262 they could produce dozens of P-80/Meteors. Seriously, all those German "super-weapons" are just a bunchload of crappy propaganda (which curiously enough seem to still work 80 years later ... Goebbels was the best at his job, I guess....)
3) Speer said a lot of things, mainly what his interviewers wanted to hear, with the single purpose of avoiding the noose. It does not make them relevant.
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