Delayed ww1: Plausibility of a second Japanese war and possible outcome

[Gancio The Ranter]

I have read extensively about the russo Japanese war, and according to what I have read it seems quite evident that by 1905 the Russians were already starting to overwhelm the Japanese, but they were forced to look for peace for other reasons.
Now I want to discuss with you guys the likelihood of a second war between the two powers and the possible outcomes. We should take into account the possible developments in naval constructions of both countries and other political and economical factors, like the massive industrialization undergoing in Russia at the time, the volatile political situation in China and the position of great powers like Great Britain and the US

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

My first thought is the Russian Empires should play on its strength as a continental power, & improve its industry in the Far East and connection there. Improving the trans Siberian railway is a obvious one. Establishing at least a small arsenal, and subsidizing supporting industry might be worth a look. Sending more settlers, and pushing the development of other industry makes sense. Improved garrisons, and perhaps some fortifications could help. Investing in land development vs a new blue water navy might be the better course in the longer run.

Politically better relations with the Brits and US could help. Japan was dependent on the London and New York banks for operating capitol. OTL President Roosevelt brought the peace negotiations by hinting credit would cease if the war continued.

 

[Black]

Honestly it doesn't seem worth it, the Ottomans and the Austrians are a far better target.

By industrializing the east they are going to have to neglect the west to some degree. Leaving them open to threat from Germany.

Possibly a cooperation between China and Russia vs Japan may be possible?

 

[catalfalque]

I'd want to know details - like what is happening in China, are both Russia and Japan trying to intervene in the same place? Do things go differently with Yuan Shih Kai than OTL?

Russia is not going to have any naval strength other than a cruiser squadron with supporting destroyers and submarines at Vladivostock.

Improving the Trans-Siberian Railway is an important idea, but expensive

 

[FillyofDelphi]

My first thought is the Russian Empires should play on its strength as a continental power, & improve its industry in the Far East and connection there. Improving the trans Siberian railway is a obvious one. Establishing at least a small arsenal, and subsidizing supporting industry might be worth a look. Sending more settlers, and pushing the development of other industry makes sense. Improved garrisons, and perhaps some fortifications could help. Investing in land development vs a new blue water navy might be the better course in the longer run.

Politically better relations with the Brits and US could help. Japan was dependent on the London and New York banks for operating capitol. OTL President Roosevelt brought the peace negotiations by hinting credit would cease if the war continued.

Russia diden't exactly have the most developed credit systems in the world either; though they had a real advantage over the Japanese in that reguard in that they were more deeply integrated into the robust French system and a better-established record of servicing/paying debt (as well as more and better-securable assets). If she could focus primarily on the Far East, that this would certainly be a viable strategy. The problem, though, is that Russian spending and spare capital is being pumped into the Donbass and Western regions instead, since they're more industrially productive and vital to Russian stability/security. Japan, on the other hand, can focus her military build-up almost entirely in Korea and Manchuria, so can establish a presence much faster than Russia with all the natural advantages geographic proximity and being on the defensive/passive also provides. (IE much more bang for her buck).

That's not to say Russia won't come back for a round two, but in order to get an advantage she'd need to either build up her navy (So as to be able to strangle Japan's mainland forces by cutting them off from the Home Islands) or settle accounts with her Teutonic neighbors first (Likely by conceding to German protection/hegemony over the Ottomans and throwing the Balkan States to the cruel indifference of international politics)

 

[Gancio The Ranter]

I'd want to know details - like what is happening in China, are both Russia and Japan trying to intervene in the same place? Do things go differently with Yuan Shih Kai than OTL?

Russia is not going to have any naval strength other than a cruiser squadron with supporting destroyers and submarines at Vladivostock.

Improving the Trans-Siberian Railway is an important idea, but expensive

The Chinese situation is the same situation is 1914, the point is that nobody knew what was going to happen, would no ww1 delay or butterfly away warlordism?

 

[Jaenera Targaryen]

Possibly a cooperation between China and Russia vs Japan may be possible?

This would escalate the Great Game, by bringing China into the Russian sphere of influence. Japan would get increased British support, while British support for the Entente Cordiale would start getting tenuous, over British fears of Russian expansion into the Far East and the Pacific.

That's not to say Russia won't come back for a round two, but in order to get an advantage she'd need to either build up her navy (So as to be able to strangle Japan's mainland forces by cutting them off from the Home Islands) or settle accounts with her Teutonic neighbors first (Likely by conceding to German protection/hegemony over the Ottomans and throwing the Balkan States to the cruel indifference of international politics)

Building up the navy would alarm the British, both due to increased Russian power projection capability into the Pacific (which was why Britain agreed to the Anglo-Japanese Alliance to begin with i.e. to check Russian power in the Pacific), and by increasing the potential for a Russian takeover of Constantinople.

Russian accommodation with Germany would destroy the Entente Cordiale, or at least the Franco-Russian part of it. The Anglo-French component of the Entente Cordiale would be much stronger.

 

[Gancio The Ranter]

This would escalate the Great Game, by bringing China into the Russian sphere of influence. Japan would get increased British support, while British support for the Entente Cordiale would start getting tenuous, over British fears of Russian expansion into the Far East and the Pacific.



Building up the navy would alarm the British, both due to increased Russian power projection capability into the Pacific (which was why Britain agreed to the Anglo-Japanese Alliance to begin with i.e. to check Russian power in the Pacific), and by increasing the potential for a Russian takeover of Constantinople.

Russian accommodation with Germany would destroy the Entente Cordiale, or at least the Franco-Russian part of it. The Anglo-French component of the Entente Cordiale would be much stronger.

By 1914 the Anglo Russian part of the entente was already dying off, Russia was starting to reaffirm its will on Persia and Central Asia, while the relationship between Germany and GB was beginning to get better thanks to the end of the naval arms race. The entente cordiale was an unlucky alliance that originated from a particular situation of Russian weakness in Asia and German aggressive behavior in naval affairs. By 1930 Russian will begin to be a big enough to counter Germany and AH alone, and the socialist connections between Germany and France will make a rapprochement likely

 

[Jaenera Targaryen]

By 1914 the Anglo Russian part of the entente was already dying off, Russia was starting to reaffirm its will on Persia and Central Asia, while the relationship between Germany and GB was beginning to get better thanks to the end of the naval arms race. The entente cordiale was an unlucky alliance that originated from a particular situation of Russian weakness in Asia and German aggressive behavior in naval affairs. By 1930 Russian will begin to be a big enough to counter Germany and AH alone, and the socialist connections between Germany and France will make a rapprochement likely

Assuming WWI is butterflied, then Britain is likely to renew the Anglo-Japanese Alliance in 1922. Similarly, Russia bringing China into its sphere of influence will alarm America, and they will likely strengthen their ties with Britain and Japan, to counter the increasing Russian influence in Europe and China.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Russia diden't exactly have the most developed credit systems in the world either; though they had a real advantage over the Japanese in that reguard in that they were more deeply integrated into the robust French system and a better-established record of servicing/paying debt (as well as more and better-securable assets). If she could focus primarily on the Far East, that this would certainly be a viable strategy. The problem, though, is that Russian spending and spare capital is being pumped into the Donbass and Western regions instead, since they're more industrially productive and vital to Russian stability/security.

I did not think a primary focus on the East was desirable, or even possible, my proposal was more investment than OTL, Ongoing railway improvement would do a lot militarily. As would a far eastern arsenal.

Japan, on the other hand, can focus her military build-up almost entirely in Korea and Manchuria, so can establish a presence much faster than Russia with all the natural advantages geographic proximity and being on the defensive/passive also provides. (IE much more bang for her buck).

That's not to say Russia won't come back for a round two, but in order to get an advantage she'd need to either build up her navy (So as to be able to strangle Japan's mainland forces by cutting them off from the Home Islands) ...

I'm fairly sure a blue water navy capable of defeating Japan was not possible. & less so as long as Japan was a British client state. Building that navy, and accompanying naval bases for war with Japan looks far beyond Russians means, at least in terms of effcieny if not in raw numbers. Using the money for internal development, including items aimed at improving military capability in the far east looks like a far better bet. OTL Russia was regaining equilibrium with the Japanese army in 1905, even with its blue water fleet eliminated. Building on that strength as a land power makes more sense.

Adding in politics: European alliances and accounts I'll leave aside. Over the longer haul relations with China may count for as much. If the Russians convince China they are there to help; 'We'd be better investment partners and military allies in your lost provinces, than those imperialist Japanese who aim at replacing you as the Asian power.

 

[FillyofDelphi]

Building up the navy would alarm the British, both due to increased Russian power projection capability into the Pacific (which was why Britain agreed to the Anglo-Japanese Alliance to begin with i.e. to check Russian power in the Pacific), and by increasing the potential for a Russian takeover of Constantinople.

Russian accommodation with Germany would destroy the Entente Cordiale, or at least the Franco-Russian part of it. The Anglo-French component of the Entente Cordiale would be much stronger.

I fully agree, so it logically follows that a second Russo-Japanese War would only take place in a fundimentally different geopolitical balance than what was in place IOTL during the decade between the 1st RJW and GW. Basically the Russian and British interests align solely in that they don't want France to be decisively checked by Germany, and the Entente between them is liable to collapse once non-French or German related issues become the main global points of tension.

I did not think a primary focus on the East was desirable, or even possible, my proposal was more investment than OTL, Ongoing railway improvement would do a lot militarily. As would a far eastern arsenal.



I'm fairly sure a blue water navy capable of defeating Japan was not possible. & less so as long as Japan was a British client state. Building that navy, and accompanying naval bases for war with Japan looks far beyond Russians means, at least in terms of effcieny if not in raw numbers. Using the money for internal development, including items aimed at improving military capability in the far east looks like a far better bet. OTL Russia was regaining equilibrium with the Japanese army in 1905, even with its blue water fleet eliminated. Building on that strength as a land power makes more sense.

Adding in politics: European alliances and accounts I'll leave aside. Over the longer haul relations with China may count for as much. If the Russians convince China they are there to help; 'We'd be better investment partners and military allies in your lost provinces, than those imperialist Japanese who aim at replacing you as the Asian power.

The question here though is if, without an eastern focus or the naval power to cut Japan off from the mainland, Russia would ever get a preposterous of force large enough to actually pursue a rematch with Japan. Remember that in 1905 the Japanese were also fairly newcomers to control in the region and their presence in Manchuria and even Korea wasn't well solidified. They'll have time to build up too , and being on the defensive, so much closer, and not having other fronts to concern themselves with can easily outdo the Russians locally

 

[McPherson]

Assuming WWI is butterflied, then Britain is likely to renew the Anglo-Japanese Alliance in 1922. Similarly, Russia bringing China into its sphere of influence will alarm America, and they will likely strengthen their ties with Britain and Japan, to counter the increasing Russian influence in Europe and China.

Very unlikely. The Americans might negotiate a split with Russia of China's carcass. Russia gets Manchuria and America takes the south. Three reasons;

1. Both imperialist powers were racist; fearing the "yellow peril".
2. The United States has a LOOOONG history of doing deals with Russia like the one I speculate; Alaska was such a deal. CALIFORNIA was another.
3. Geography, Russia's drive east is matched by America's drive west. Both meet at China in 1898. The Russo Japanese War threw a monkey wrench in the works. Afterwards, Japan became America's number one enemy as that nation thwarted American ambitions for China.

 

[Jaenera Targaryen]

3. Geography, Russia's drive east is matched by America's drive west. Both meet at China in 1898. The Russo Japanese War threw a monkey wrench in the works. Afterwards, Japan became America's number one enemy as that nation thwarted American ambitions for China.

Incorrect, America was perfectly fine with Japan's rise as a major power, with both Taft and Teddy Roosevelt outright and openly praising Japan's annexation of Korea. It wasn't until the 21 Demands that America became hostile to Japan's continued growth.

 

[McPherson]

Incorrect, America was perfectly fine with Japan's rise as a major power, with both Taft and Teddy Roosevelt outright and openly praising Japan's annexation of Korea. It wasn't until the 21 Demands that America became hostile to Japan's continued growth.

From Here:

WARPLAN ORANGE started with Teddy Roosevelt.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

...

The question here though is if, without an eastern focus or the naval power to cut Japan off from the mainland, Russia would ever get a preposterous of force large enough to actually pursue a rematch with Japan. ...

Perhaps not, but I see a land focus as more productive, much more, that a effort at naval superiority, that will fall far short. How large a navy, and how late a far eastern naval base must be built to win a naval war? What would the cost of that be & can the Russian empire pay that? At least doubling down on railway infrastructure has some economic return, & would cost less than a large fleet, that will be obsolete & require rebuilding in a dozen years.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

From Here:

WARPLAN ORANGE started with Teddy Roosevelt.

Wasn't clear from skimming that text, but it was written circa 1907, correct?

 

[McPherson]

Wasn't clear from skimming that text, but it was written circa 1907, correct?

Formally that was; yes, but based on the fortification work in Manila (1904), the dredging of Pearl Harbor after the forcible Hawaiian annexation (1901) the coaling station on Guam at the same time and the undersea cables being strung like crazy (1902-1910), all started under Roosevelt, I think we know who the US was getting ready to fight.

 

[Jaenera Targaryen]

From Here:

WARPLAN ORANGE started with Teddy Roosevelt.

...there was also War Plan Red, and yet America and Britain got along just fine at this time, and afterwards.

My point is, for all the the USA was preparing contingencies, they weren't default hostile to Japanese goals until Japan acted on them with the 21 Demands.

 

[Bucky]

Russia was trying to industrialize in the 19-aughts, but they were doing a piss poor job of it. Aristocracies don't industrialize very good. In 1905 Vladivostok was still a muddy little city.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

Formally that was; yes, but based on the fortification work in Manila (1904), the dredging of Pearl Harbor after the forcible Hawaiian annexation (1901) the coaling station on Guam at the same time and the undersea cables being strung like crazy (1902-1910), all started under Roosevelt, I think we know who the US was getting ready to fight.

There was the War Scare of 1907 = why I asked.

...there was also War Plan Red, and yet America and Britain got along just fine at this time, and afterwards.

My point is, for all the the USA was preparing contingencies, they weren't default hostile to Japanese goals until Japan acted on them with the 21 Demands.

Hmm... a full review of all this would be useful to sort that out. After 1918 WP ORANGE seems to be the only really serious major power War Plan on the table. But, that may have been different previous to 1914.