Catherine, wife of Czar Peter III (1762-1804), was assassinated in 1762. Rumors tell that Czar Peter III was behind this and it is no secret he hated his wife Catherine.

Now Peter III was not a bad Czar. He fought and beat the Danes in 1762-1765. He formed an alliance with Prussia (God knows why, Prussia was almost defeated in the Seven Years War...), which antagonized Austria in a permanent Austro-French alliance and he beat the Ottoman-Crimean Forces in the war of 1787-1794, making the Crimean Khanate and Moldova Russian Vassals rather than Ottoman Vassals.

Assuming Catherine was not assassinated... There is a likely chance that it would turn against OTL Peter III, how would she or her son Paul rule Russia? Would it be better for Russia or turn worse?
 
Catherine, wife of Czar Peter III (1762-1804), was assassinated in 1762. Rumors tell that Czar Peter III was behind this and it is no secret he hated his wife Catherine.

Now Peter III was not a bad Czar. He fought and beat the Danes in 1762-1765. He formed an alliance with Prussia (God knows why, Prussia was almost defeated in the Seven Years War...), which antagonized Austria in a permanent Austro-French alliance and he beat the Ottoman-Crimean Forces in the war of 1787-1794, making the Crimean Khanate and Moldova Russian Vassals rather than Ottoman Vassals.

Assuming Catherine was not assassinated... There is a likely chance that it would turn against OTL Peter III, how would she or her son Paul rule Russia? Would it be better for Russia or turn worse?

She would confirm her late husband’s peace treaty with Prussia and make Prussia an ally. By the end of the 7YW Prussia was exhausted enough not to be a potential menace Elizabeth was afraid of. A complete defeat of Prussia was not in the Russian interests because it was going to make Austria too powerful and prone to the interference into the PLC affairs. The same goes for its possible meddling on the Danube, which could conflict with the Russian plans.

Franco-Austrian Alliance was not a problem as long as both Russia and Austria had common interests against the Ottomans and, at least as long as MT is in charge, one can expect it to be a quite unreliable neighbor always trying to limit Russian expansion and to get something for nothing. Anyway, it would not represent a direct danger, especially with Prussia being on the Russian side.

Elsewhere, if Catherine overthrown Peter (there was a brief window of an opportunity when the field army was concentrating on the Russian border for a future war with Denmark and the Guards were still in St-Petersburg unhappy with a perspective to leave the capital; the opportunity was gone after they were replaced with the regiments returning from the 7YW) then she finds herself in a need to start generously rewarding the main plotters by giving them state peasants as serfs by the tens of thousands, promoting into the high positions for which most of them did not qualify, and throwing money around as if the Treasury was not empty. Peter did not have any obligations of the kind so under his rule the serfdom never got to the extremes both in the numbers and severity. On a contrary, using the credit he got by his Freedom of Nobility act, he passed through some restrictions on the serf owners.

Also, as a part of her campaign for gaining the popularity, Catherine would be forced to further relax discipline not only of the Guards but in the army as well, which should have a negative impact on the future war. The same goes or abandoning Peter’s attempt to enforce some competence among the “honorary generals” (aristocrats who were getting the high ranks without bothering to serve and potentially could claim commanding positions in the case of war). Of course, Peter’s way of doing this by forcing them to learn a parade ground drill could be criticized but at least they were learning what was considered at the time an important part of a military training.

What else? Most probably Catherine would create State Bank, an idea floated by Peter before the failed coup: with the shortage of gold and silver, Russian government had to introduce a paper currency sooner rather than later.

It is also probable that, with some of her supporters getting the high positions in the army, the pretty much inevitable Ottoman war would be conducted not in the most efficient manner until the circumstances are forcing her to put Rumiantsev (who was an outspoken Peter’s loyalist) in charge.

Now, as was demonstrated, some of the plotters eventually pardoned by Peter proved to be useful people capable of performing the important services. Take two major figures:

Allexei Orlov, by producing Russian own breed of the cavalry horses, provided solution of one of the serious problems plaguing Russian cavalry: even during the 7YW the native horses were too small which put Russian cavalry at a disadvantage. While the problem was not completely resolved during Orlov’s life, enough of the bigger horses was produced to satisfy a need of the heavy cavalry.

Gregory Potemkin - proved to be a good military and civic administrator (when kept under strict control :)); he got a lot of credit for building up infrastructure of the former Crimean territories.
 
She would confirm her late husband’s peace treaty with Prussia and make Prussia an ally. By the end of the 7YW Prussia was exhausted enough not to be a potential menace Elizabeth was afraid of. A complete defeat of Prussia was not in the Russian interests because it was going to make Austria too powerful and prone to the interference into the PLC affairs. The same goes for its possible meddling on the Danube, which could conflict with the Russian plans.

Franco-Austrian Alliance was not a problem as long as both Russia and Austria had common interests against the Ottomans and, at least as long as MT is in charge, one can expect it to be a quite unreliable neighbor always trying to limit Russian expansion and to get something for nothing. Anyway, it would not represent a direct danger, especially with Prussia being on the Russian side.

Elsewhere, if Catherine overthrown Peter (there was a brief window of an opportunity when the field army was concentrating on the Russian border for a future war with Denmark and the Guards were still in St-Petersburg unhappy with a perspective to leave the capital; the opportunity was gone after they were replaced with the regiments returning from the 7YW) then she finds herself in a need to start generously rewarding the main plotters by giving them state peasants as serfs by the tens of thousands, promoting into the high positions for which most of them did not qualify, and throwing money around as if the Treasury was not empty. Peter did not have any obligations of the kind so under his rule the serfdom never got to the extremes both in the numbers and severity. On a contrary, using the credit he got by his Freedom of Nobility act, he passed through some restrictions on the serf owners.

Also, as a part of her campaign for gaining the popularity, Catherine would be forced to further relax discipline not only of the Guards but in the army as well, which should have a negative impact on the future war. The same goes or abandoning Peter’s attempt to enforce some competence among the “honorary generals” (aristocrats who were getting the high ranks without bothering to serve and potentially could claim commanding positions in the case of war). Of course, Peter’s way of doing this by forcing them to learn a parade ground drill could be criticized but at least they were learning what was considered at the time an important part of a military training.

What else? Most probably Catherine would create State Bank, an idea floated by Peter before the failed coup: with the shortage of gold and silver, Russian government had to introduce a paper currency sooner rather than later.

It is also probable that, with some of her supporters getting the high positions in the army, the pretty much inevitable Ottoman war would be conducted not in the most efficient manner until the circumstances are forcing her to put Rumiantsev (who was an outspoken Peter’s loyalist) in charge.

Now, as was demonstrated, some of the plotters eventually pardoned by Peter proved to be useful people capable of performing the important services. Take two major figures:

Allexei Orlov, by producing Russian own breed of the cavalry horses, provided solution of one of the serious problems plaguing Russian cavalry: even during the 7YW the native horses were too small which put Russian cavalry at a disadvantage. While the problem was not completely resolved during Orlov’s life, enough of the bigger horses was produced to satisfy a need of the heavy cavalry.

Gregory Potemkin - proved to be a good military and civic administrator (when kept under strict control :)); he got a lot of credit for building up infrastructure of the former Crimean territories.

Would Catherine even get loyalty from the Army in Holstein?

And would she also enforce religious tolerance like Peter III did? In practice, religious tolerance was harder to enforce under Peter III reign as the Church still desired to convert to Kalmyks. How would that be under Catherine?

Peter's stance against the British, isolating them in Europe in the 1780s was a diplomatic victory as never before. You could say it helped the Colonial rebels in the Americas. What would Catherind do about that?

How would New Russia (Former Crimea, north of the peninsula) develop without Peter III? Or the base on the peninsula?
 
Would Catherine even get loyalty from the Army in Holstein?

And would she also enforce religious tolerance like Peter III did? In practice, religious tolerance was harder to enforce under Peter III reign as the Church still desired to convert to Kalmyks. How would that be under Catherine?

Peter's stance against the British, isolating them in Europe in the 1780s was a diplomatic victory as never before. You could say it helped the Colonial rebels in the Americas. What would Catherind do about that?

How would New Russia (Former Crimea, north of the peninsula) develop without Peter III? Or the base on the peninsula?

If you are talking about the Russian army, IIRC, it was not yet in Holstein but anyway, if the coup is successful, she is recognized by the Senate and the Church and an army does not have an option. The only remaining scenario is Count Panin somehow managing to make case for the Grand Duke Paul with Catherine as a regent but, taking into an account situation in the capital, this is extremely unlikely: he did not have any real force to back him up.

As far as the religion is concerned, Catherine played an Orthodox card before the coup so she would stick to this notion: unlike Pater, she needed to be more Russian than the Russians because she was lacking any other legality. OTOH, this would not necessarily go beyond the appearances and hardly up to the degree that can be detrimental to her reign so I don’t think that there would be forced conversions on abig scale. Most probably, as soon as she feels secure enough, she would conduct secularizatio of the Church lands replacing the lost incomes with the state money grants and making the Orthodox Church even more dependent upon the state.

Peter’s stand against the Brits could be a diplomatic victory and helpful to the colonists but it did little for Russia because the trade interests (at least those of the nobility) had been hurt and there was no Russian gain in the independent colonies: Britain remained the main trade partner. Probably Catherine would avoid a direct confrontation and stay neutral in the conflict. This would allow to keep using the British expertise in the naval issues.

The issues of the New Russia and Crimea are relevant only within the context of the Russian conquest of the region but we can probably assume that such a conquest was inevitable so the issue is just about the efficiency. It is probably safe to assume that in the terms of both conquest and administration Catherine’s TL would be less efficient. In the military area because she would be hesitant to put Rumiantsev in charge until and unless she is forced to by his success (we can take for granted that he would be at the head of one of the armies but probably it would be a smaller and worse supplied one). Then, she would probably cave to the (empty) Austrian threats and give away some of the conquests for the sake of a peace thus making the second war pretty much inevitable (with a need to reconquest these places again). It is probably fair to assume that she would suck up to some fancy projects proposed by Gregory Orlov (who would inevitably be elevated beyond his abilities). Something spectacular like, say, sending the Baltic fleet to the Med in a hope to incite the Greek uprising. This of course would provide Russian navy with a good practice and perhaps even with some victories but the practical results would be minimal.


Naval base in the Crimea also would be inevitable because the fleet was needed and the Sea of Azov was not adequate for the purpose. We can guess the exact location but Sevastopol is seemingly close to the ideal. OTOH, we can probably assume that Catherine would concentrate on the appearances and visuals and construction of the decent roads to the base is going to be neglected. The same goes for creating a local infrastructure helping to supply the base. Of course, the Crimea by its geography and climate makes such a development not a trivial task and even Peter III was not quite successful but at least he took care of the roads.

More or less the same goes for the general development of the New Russia: the main issue is efficiency including choice of the right places for the new cities. We probably can assume that under Catherine a lot less would be done in the terms of a proper research of the sits and much more in the terms of building the big churches and administrative buildings.
 
Quick questions:
  1. What happens to Peter's second wife Elizabeth Vorontsova? IOTL they had several children (Grand Duke Peter, Grand Duke Roman, and Grand Duchess Elizabeth) and their love story is celebrated throughout Russian literature. Without Catherine's rather convenient death, she is likely never made Empress, and who knows what happens if Catherine takes charge of the government.
  2. Would Catherine be as gung-ho about the Prussian alliance and allow for the marriage between Paul and the Prussian proxy Natalia Alexeievna? Natalia obviously turned out to be a spectacular disaster trying to claim the throne for herself in the name of her son Peter Pavolich over Peter III after Paul's early death (of course, Peter Pavolich likely wasn't Paul's son, but that's neither here nor there). It was two generations of scheming by "those German ladies" in comparison to the faithful Empress Elizabeth that caused Peter Petrovich (later Peter IV) and his descendants to marry Russian noblewomen instead of European Princesses
 
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