Could after an alternate timeline were the CMC became World War Three and the ensuing chaos after the Nuclear War caused the US, Canada and Mexico to lose some states? Is it possible or not? How would recovery last long? Which states would secede from their mother nation?
Could the Cuban Missile Crisis Balkanize North America?
- Thread starter Terranical
- Start date
Why would this create Balkanization? If anything, the areas not destroyed but suffering from fallout would need assistance/support from a central government/areas that hadn't been affected.
RousseauX
Donor
1963 USSR didn't have enough nukes capable of hitting the US to destroy US as a nation
if this was the 1980s otoh...
Assuming a scenario like the cuban missile crisis timeline.
Alone? No, but i think people here seriously underestimate the effect of the near collapse of civilian logistics and infrastructure that will follow the destruction of several major cities and 10+ million deaths. What remains of the US army (likely a good chunk of it) would have to be repatriated ASAP to put the whole country under martial law.
I think many black communities wouldn't accept the martial law, it's the 60s after all, i can definitively see decently sized insurgencies against the government. This will be a non neglible threat for the federal government.
In this scenario canada is badly hit because of soviet bombers that had to drop their payload because they couldn't reach the CONTUS. Canada can't simply handle several nukes being dropped on its few major cities at the time. And it will be even more badly hit by the famine than the U.S.A. If they don't occupy the whole Canada it could definitively go into chaos.
And all of this is assuming the line of succession is more or less intact, and that no general tries to play the hero. If part of the army splits this will seriously hinder the early pacification and humanitarian effort and could lead to millions more death and slow down the reconstruction.
Alone? No, but i think people here seriously underestimate the effect of the near collapse of civilian logistics and infrastructure that will follow the destruction of several major cities and 10+ million deaths. What remains of the US army (likely a good chunk of it) would have to be repatriated ASAP to put the whole country under martial law.
I think many black communities wouldn't accept the martial law, it's the 60s after all, i can definitively see decently sized insurgencies against the government. This will be a non neglible threat for the federal government.
In this scenario canada is badly hit because of soviet bombers that had to drop their payload because they couldn't reach the CONTUS. Canada can't simply handle several nukes being dropped on its few major cities at the time. And it will be even more badly hit by the famine than the U.S.A. If they don't occupy the whole Canada it could definitively go into chaos.
And all of this is assuming the line of succession is more or less intact, and that no general tries to play the hero. If part of the army splits this will seriously hinder the early pacification and humanitarian effort and could lead to millions more death and slow down the reconstruction.
RightHoJeeves
Banned
I'm of the opinion that at best the Soviets in 1962 can only cause moderate damage to the CONUS via their nuclear triad. And that's only if they shoot first, otherwise SAC wipes out the majority of their ballistic missiles on the pads given how long they took to fuel up in 1962. After that it's up to the odd bomber that gets through or a sub hitting a military target like Newport News or Pearl Harbor.
So no, I don't think any collapse in order outside of the unlucky areas that get hit. It's just a matter of what gets hit. The US can survive the loss of minor cities like Tucson or Omaha. Losing DC and New York City would cause larger problems but the rest of the country would survive.
So no, I don't think any collapse in order outside of the unlucky areas that get hit. It's just a matter of what gets hit. The US can survive the loss of minor cities like Tucson or Omaha. Losing DC and New York City would cause larger problems but the rest of the country would survive.
What would they realistically do? Turn Miami into a parking lot? Devastating but even WWII didn’t Balkanize Japan and they got two of those bastards dropped on them along with a shit-ton of fire bombs. The worst that happens is a nuke or two on Miami, a nuke or two on some major Russian city, and then it either goes to conventional warfare or everyone just calms down.
RousseauX
Donor
I think Amerigo's tl overestimated Soviet nuclear capacity in the 1960s: he did his research 10+ years ago when there was less available information on the internet on soviet capacities, you wouldn't have had nearly as many hits as he thought there would be
Also that assumes that the cities that are hit are destroyed. The Chicago urban area where i live is over 2,000 sq miles. Granted the area was much smaller back but no one bomb is going to destroy that in its entirety.
marathag
Banned
Even 10 years ago it was well known.
When I was on Usenet in the mid/late '90s, that information was out there that the CMC would have most likely turned out for a bit worse than 'Hair mussed' result for CONUS, and a horrorshow from Ireland to Vladivostok , with the USSR simply ceasing to exist.
marathag
Banned
And unlikely for Any Soviet bomber to get past the RCAF, ADC, ANG and finally Multiple Nike-Hercules batteries in the Chicago Metro area. As far as one of the few ICBMs getting thru, was possible, but the early RV the Soviets were using at the time, were within the Nike intercept envelope with their 20 or 40 kt yield warheads
I really needed an update based on Amerigo's timeline and this is why I posted this post to know what if America did balkanize after the Crisis.
marathag
Banned
The big change was when the Soviet records became available.
Before that, you had a lot US overestimation of Soviet capabilities, that for obvious reasons was never corrected by the USSR
History Learner
Banned
Realistically, I'm rather doubtful of the Soviet ability to hit more than a handful of targets in CONUS.
And it's better to overestimate and over shoot than the other way around from the American perspective.
marathag
Banned
Can be counter productive.
As it was thought there was first a Bomber Gap, and then a Missile Gap, led the ramping up of production of both for the US to be completely in the lead in both Bombers and Missiles by time of the CMC.
Had Khrushchev not been boasting of 'making them like sausages' and instead go with Ike's Open Skies, it would been known that the USSR was not an immediate threat, and so the USSR would not have been sucked into the game of 'Deep Pocket' of Guns v. Butter that end up burying them 30 years later