Could Japan have joined the Allies in World War II?

[Vera Strawberry]

While Japan was officially allied with Germany and Italy, in practice it was more of a co-belligerent. It generally didn't try to coordinate with its European Axis counterparts, and the two countries were known to work at cross purposes even after they officially became allied. For example, Japan not only didn't join Germany's attack on the Soviet Union, it actually refused to interfere with the Americans sending them materiel for fear of provoking the Russian bear.

With this in mind, could Japan have somehow ended up on the Allied side? The USSR did despite its collaboration with Germany, after all.

 

[Lalli]

It is possible but you would need some pre-war POD. You have change some things if not in Japan at least outside of the cuntry.

 

[zetbmt]

Sound unlikely. Alliances are formed only when they share at least some common goals. The truth of the matter is there is one thing that Japan will not give up, its conquest of China Whether it is through puppets or direct rule, it does not matter. The Japanese Empire has been through a string of victories after the modernization, these victories brought wealth, prestige and pride. Years of propaganda ensure that people actually believe that wars and conquests are the best courses of action. They don't know the lack of fund or the near bankruptcy of a victorious Russo-Japanese war.
Japan would not abandon its best chance to get China. A Japan with Chinese resources is too much of a threat for anyone in the regions to tolerate. It would threaten the colonies in the South, the Eastern frontier of the USSR, the American Pacific interests. They MIGHT avoid taking on the colonies of other powers during the war but a victorious Japanese Empire in China is unacceptable.
Besides, what could other Great powers gain from an alliance with Japan?. Security? A powerful Japan and its navy pose an existential threat to any power in the regions.

 

[marathag]

While Japan was officially allied with Germany and Italy, in practice it was more of a co-belligerent. It generally didn't try to coordinate with its European Axis counterparts, and the two countries were known to work at cross purposes even after they officially became allied. For example, Japan not only didn't join Germany's attack on the Soviet Union, it actually refused to interfere with the Americans sending them materiel for fear of provoking the Russian bear.

With this in mind, could Japan have somehow ended up on the Allied side? The USSR did despite its collaboration with Germany, after all.

The German Ribbentrop/Molotov deal with the Soviets, they feel betrayed, the Anti-Comintern Pact is finished
Japanese will help the British against the Germans and their Soviet Cobelligerents in exchange for a free hand in China and for being supplied with raw materials

Unlikely for a German-Soviet Axis vs Anglo-Franco-Japanese Allies to happen, but OTL was weird too.

 

[GSD310]

The German Ribbentrop/Molotov deal with the Soviets, they feel betrayed, the Anti-Comintern Pact is finished
Japanese will help the British against the Germans and their Soviet Cobelligerents in exchange for a free hand in China and for being supplied with raw materials

Unlikely for a German-Soviet Axis vs Anglo-Franco-Japanese Allies to happen, but OTL was weird too.

I think if the Ribbentrop/Molotov agreement was an alliance instead of "merely" a non-aggression pact or if the USSR becomes a co-belligerent, then the odds of Japan joining the allies become greater. It becomes more imperative to have an ally who can attack the USSR from the east.

 

[Pelranius]

The German Ribbentrop/Molotov deal with the Soviets, they feel betrayed, the Anti-Comintern Pact is finished
Japanese will help the British against the Germans and their Soviet Cobelligerents in exchange for a free hand in China and for being supplied with raw materials

Unlikely for a German-Soviet Axis vs Anglo-Franco-Japanese Allies to happen, but OTL was weird too.

Given the limited amount of help Japan could realistically provide, the British will pass.

 

[Anarch King of Dipsodes]

China had good relations with both Germany and the USSR. If the Soviet-German pact develops into a real alliance, then Japan mkight be left out while the Soviets and Germans support China against Japan. (OTL, China got advisors from Germany and aircraft from the USSR.) The USSR might even move to kick Japan out of mainland Asia.

If "the Allies" (i.e. the countries fighting Germany) also have to fight the USSR, and the USSR is fighting Japan... well, there it is: Japan is a de facto Ally, and probably a formal Ally as well. While it would be icky for the US and UK to side with the mad dogs of Imperial Japan, it was IMHO just as icky to side with Stalin - which they did with great enthusiasm.

 

[Fatt Shea]

China had good relations with both Germany and the USSR. If the Soviet-German pact develops into a real alliance, then Japan mkight be left out while the Soviets and Germans support China against Japan. (OTL, China got advisors from Germany and aircraft from the USSR.) The USSR might even move to kick Japan out of mainland Asia.

If "the Allies" (i.e. the countries fighting Germany) also have to fight the USSR, and the USSR is fighting Japan... well, there it is: Japan is a de facto Ally, and probably a formal Ally as well. While it would be icky for the US and UK to side with the mad dogs of Imperial Japan, it was IMHO just as icky to side with Stalin - which they did with great enthusiasm.

Germany could not help much if they are at war with USSR

 

[theg*ddam*hoi2fan]

While Japan was officially allied with Germany and Italy, in practice it was more of a co-belligerent. It generally didn't try to coordinate with its European Axis counterparts, and the two countries were known to work at cross purposes even after they officially became allied. For example, Japan not only didn't join Germany's attack on the Soviet Union, it actually refused to interfere with the Americans sending them materiel for fear of provoking the Russian bear.

With this in mind, could Japan have somehow ended up on the Allied side? The USSR did despite its collaboration with Germany, after all.

There's a very good TL to that effect, where a series of pre-war events lead to a very different WWII...

The Twin Vipers: A Finished TL of the Berlin-Moscow Axis

Discussion Thread Here: https://www.alternatehistory.com/forum/threads/the-twin-vipers-a-tl-of-the-berlin-moscow-axis.457464/ World War II has been, for nearly eighty years, characterised not by the efforts of the millions of soldiers who fought in it, or by the sweeping social changes that...

www.alternatehistory.com

 

[JohnBull]

China had good relations with both Germany and the USSR. If the Soviet-German pact develops into a real alliance, then Japan mkight be left out while the Soviets and Germans support China against Japan. (OTL, China got advisors from Germany and aircraft from the USSR.) The USSR might even move to kick Japan out of mainland Asia.

If "the Allies" (i.e. the countries fighting Germany) also have to fight the USSR, and the USSR is fighting Japan... well, there it is: Japan is a de facto Ally, and probably a formal Ally as well. While it would be icky for the US and UK to side with the mad dogs of Imperial Japan, it was IMHO just as icky to side with Stalin - which they did with great enthusiasm.

Maybe British and American wouldn't fight the Chinese as Japan didn't fight USSR in OTL.

In such scenario, I guess Japan would quickly be evicted from China and Korea by the combined Soviet-Chinese assault, but they would be safe in their home islands in a situation comparable to Britain and Germany in 1940.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

The PoD (there are several possible) lie two decades earlier. Until the 1920s Japan was a ally & client state of the Britain. London banks financed the bulk of Japans industrialization post 1880, British expertise and shipyards built Japans early navy and the modern shipyards in Japan. Things changed gradually after 1910 & by 1924 the two were divorcing. Japans leadership had become dominated by Imperialists and Britain was among the other empires that opposed Japan building a modern Empire. Japans government and business leaders tried to diversify their financial support in the US banking system, but they were loathe to become a US client nation. Both had been increasingly at odds economically in Asia, preventing true cooperation.

Had Japans leaders been more resistant to imperial ambitions & retained their association with Britain then Japan could have been a ally from the start in 1939, as it was in the Great War 1914-1918.

 

[DougM]

Didn’t we do a version of this topic about a month or two ago?
The problem is.. You either change Japan SO much it is unrecognizable or you have to choose Japan over the US as the US is not going to cooperate with Japan if they are still pushing for dominance in Asia/The Western Pacific.
And only a complete fool would choose Japan over the US in WW2.

The other issue is, why would Japan join? Unless you are giving them China or something…. (See about everything for why that does not work)

 

[Simreeve]

I think if the Ribbentrop/Molotov agreement was an alliance instead of "merely" a non-aggression pact or if the USSR becomes a co-belligerent

It did, for a while: Ask the Poles...

 

[Garrison]

Japanese ambitions were in direct conflict with British and American interests and given the nature of the regime in Tokyo war was all but inevitable.

 

[thaddeus]

what kind of deal could the USSR and Japan strike after June 1941? beyond allowing US aid to reach the Soviets which they did historically.

 

[Lee-Sensei]

While Japan was officially allied with Germany and Italy, in practice it was more of a co-belligerent. It generally didn't try to coordinate with its European Axis counterparts, and the two countries were known to work at cross purposes even after they officially became allied. For example, Japan not only didn't join Germany's attack on the Soviet Union, it actually refused to interfere with the Americans sending them materiel for fear of provoking the Russian bear.

With this in mind, could Japan have somehow ended up on the Allied side? The USSR did despite its collaboration with Germany, after all.

Possibly, but why would they want to? Japan gets very little from fighting on their side and with the exception of the Italian concession in Tientsin, the areas of interest to Japan are all controlled by the Allies.

I suppose that if you could get China in the Axis, Japan would end up on the Allied side. But I don’t think Hitler ever planned on bringing China into the fold. They were divided and had a very weak industrial base at this time.

 

[Colonel Zoidberg]

The US was gearing up since after WWI for war with Japan; War Plan Orange was the expected battle plan for a heads-up, navy-dominated battle with the Japanese. Either the US would have to align with the Nazis (a long shot, especially if FDR is in office; I don’t see it as a possibility if FDR serves two terms and a fascist is elected in 1940) or would have to remain neutral between the Axis and Allies and fight only Japan (a possibility if FDR is out in 1940.)

The real problem is that Japan was pissing a lot of people off at that time - the League of Nations unanimously condemned their actions in Asia, and Japan’s reaction was to take their ball and go home. For the UK and France, who didn’t take kindly to Japan’s actions, and the Soviet Union, who had fought a recent war with Japan, to accept Japan as a teammate is a tough sell at best and downright ASB at worst.

 

[Stardude82]

The US really only stepped up sanctions to intolerable levels when the US cut oil exports in response to Japanese invasion of Indochina in late 1940. I think there is a time in 1940 when the UK is desperate enough to make a deal with the Japanese and the Japanese disillusioned enough with German-Soviet cooperation to avoid or abandon the Tripartite Pact. I could imagine some sort of deal trading some sort of "stewardship" over French and Dutch possessions in Asia in exchange for help with security in the Indian Ocean and a pinky promise to only kill the Red Chinese and restart some sort of dialog with the Nationalists to keep the Americans happy. You could see Madagascar getting invaded by the Japanese to keep it safe from the marauding Italians.

 

[Fatt Shea]

While Japan was officially allied with Germany and Italy, in practice it was more of a co-belligerent. It generally didn't try to coordinate with its European Axis counterparts, and the two countries were known to work at cross purposes even after they officially became allied. For example, Japan not only didn't join Germany's attack on the Soviet Union, it actually refused to interfere with the Americans sending them materiel for fear of provoking the Russian bear.

With this in mind, could Japan have somehow ended up on the Allied side? The USSR did despite its collaboration with Germany, after all.

Maybe if UK recogognised their gains in China and promised no interference with China or with sanctions it could happen, it could be good for Japan since it would not have to commit much forces against Germany but at this time they were quite distrustful of the West, for Britian I am not sure if it would be quite desperate at this time and could agree since Japanese aren't demanding land from them and it could gaurd them from a future Japanese attack.

 

[Carl Schwamberger]

The US really only stepped up sanctions to intolerable levels when the US cut oil exports in response to Japanese invasion of Indochina in late 1940. I think there is a time in 1940 when the UK is desperate enough to make a deal with the Japanese and the Japanese disillusioned enough with German-Soviet cooperation to avoid or abandon the Tripartite Pact. I could imagine some sort of deal trading some sort of "stewardship" over French and Dutch possessions in Asia in exchange for help with security in the Indian Ocean and a pinky promise to only kill the Red Chinese and restart some sort of dialog with the Nationalists to keep the Americans happy. You could see Madagascar getting invaded by the Japanese to keep it safe from the marauding Italians.

just to nitpick the Oil embargo was not imposed until 1 August 1941. In the autumn of 1940 some critical metals were embargoed, scrap steel being one. This did not have a immediate effect as existing contracts were not terminated and residual shipments continue for a few months. Japan had some significant reserves in strategic metals stockpiled as well.

The freezing of Japanese assets in the US 26 July 1941 was the key sanction. With Japan unable to execute any bank transactions in the US, including borrowing on its short term revolving credit it could purchase nothing. This action rendered the other embargos meaningless Japan couldn't obtaining anything anyway. The next most important embargo was cutting Japan off from commercial cargo shipping. In 1939 & 1940 close to 60% of Japans cargo passing through its ports was embarked or discharged from foreign flagged ships. That cut off effectively reduced Japans cargo transport by half, a number far below requirements for sustaining its industry. John Ellis has a chapter in 'Brute Force' summarizing why the various embargos pushed the Japanese leaders into the decision for war.