Chinese win in the Opium War?

[manitobot]

Note: This is my first post, so naturally I am unfamiliar with the rules. Please let me know if I am doing something wrong. Advice is kindly appreciated.

What would be a possible POD or scenario that China would trounce the British in the First Opium War? If so what would be the ramifications later on? COuld China achieve great power status early?

 

[Magnum]

COuld China achieve great power status early?

I don't think so. Western nations would still want to trade with China on favorable terms, and they were only getting stronger in comparison. Gunboat diplomacy was bound to happen eventually, and once it did and the Qing were proven incapable of handling it, unrest would follow.

 

[Escape Zeppelin]

Agreed. China was growing weaker and weaker while the Europeans were getting stronger. The Opium was a result of China's decline, not a cause and without major changes to China giving them a victory there only gives them a temporary respite. But assuming that it goes surprisingly well for China and they manage to pull it off I think they're going to get their butts handed to them when the British and French try again within a decade.

 

[manitobot]

Thank you so much for your responses. I have been an avid reader of TL's on this site and this is my first time posting a discussion. Going further into the topic, couldn't there be a way to prevent China from declining so rapidly, perhaps an early POD that can lead to them pulling a Meiji or a more successful Hundred Days of Reform?

 

[Monter]

Thank you so much for your responses. I have been an avid reader of TL's on this site and this is my first time posting a discussion. Going further into the topic, couldn't there be a way to prevent China from declining so rapidly, perhaps an early POD that can lead to them pulling a Meiji or a more successful Hundred Days of Reform?

You probably need something around Yongzheng's reign, or a different Qianlong for maximum effect.

Jiaqing and Daoguang can still pull that off, but the problems in the Qing system are too entrench for them to do with ease (particularly Daoguang).

 

[123456789blaaa]

Thank you so much for your responses. I have been an avid reader of TL's on this site and this is my first time posting a discussion. Going further into the topic, couldn't there be a way to prevent China from declining so rapidly, perhaps an early POD that can lead to them pulling a Meiji or a more successful Hundred Days of Reform?

Assuming you don't want a PoD before the 19th century, enabling the Han Chinese to overthrow the Qing would help remove a lot of structural issues that got in the way of reform. The most obvious PoD is the Taiping. You see a lot of people dismissing the Taiping rebellion as just a bunch of murderous fanatics who who fracture China if they succeeded but I disagree with that. There were moderates who got into power and showed a strong inclination for reform. Given that the Taiping almost won in OTL, it wouldn't take much to have them succeed. Now, this doesn't mean they could reform as quickly as Japan (for various reasons), but that's not necessary to provide a much better existence than OTL. Certainly they avoid losing to Japan in the first Sino-Japanese war.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Note: This is my first post, so naturally I am unfamiliar with the rules. Please let me know if I am doing something wrong. Advice is kindly appreciated.

What would be a possible POD or scenario that China would trounce the British in the First Opium War? If so what would be the ramifications later on? COuld China achieve great power status early?

The Qing's spurt of military vitality in the mid-late 1700s needs to somehow be redirected towards the Indian Ocean (perhaps a naval campaign in support of the overland campaigns in Burma?). If the Qing become an active factor in the Indian Ocean then developments such as the British expansion into India will have to be taken more seriously, and the Qing will have to start looking at the Europeans as competition (rather than uncivilized seafaring barbarians) while they still are at a roughly equivalent stage of development. From there it's just a matter of how much reform the Qing bureaucracy requires in order for the state to remain competitive with the Europeans.

 

[manitobot]

Assuming you don't want a PoD before the 19th century

A POD well before the 19th century possibly under the Ming could give China the strength it needed to gradually technologically advance. With that being said where ideally would the timeline diverge. I am thinking that possibly continuing Zheng He's journeys could help with China's isolation. Any thoughts?

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

Seeing how the Qing were doomed from the start, a POD well before the 19th century possibly under the Ming could give China the strength it needed to gradually technologically advance. With that being said where ideally would the timeline diverge. I am thinking that possibly continuing Zheng He's journeys could help with China's isolation. Any thoughts?

So what you're saying is that the dynasty that brought China to its territorial apex and finally did away with the imperial examination is a dead end, but the one that instituted the Haijin and brought about a Chinese version of the Spanish Price Revolution is somehow China's only hope for a future? Seems that you're relying on an over simplistic "this dynasty was good, this one was bad" view of Chinese history.

 

[XFE]

Seeing how the Qing were doomed from the start

...Why?

 

[Minnesota_Nationalist]

If you want China just to win the First Opium War, not necessarily any other after, have the Brits try to start a land war. Despite all of the Qing's problems, they were still rather competent on land during this time, even successfully fending off at least one French land invasion during this time frame. Any sea battle basically automatically goes to the Brits, but land battles, Qing has the edge. Have the British invasion get absolutely crushed, therefor crushing the moral of British soldiers and sailors. Perhaps Britain let's it go early.

I can't really predict how it'll go in the future. I for one would say that Britain and the rest of Europe say that China just isn't worth it, but in all likelihood another war would probably be brewing in the future (probably something along the lines of Euros supporting the Taiping Rebellion)

 

[123456789blaaa]

The Qing's spurt of military vitality in the mid-late 1700s needs to somehow be redirected towards the Indian Ocean (perhaps a naval campaign in support of the overland campaigns in Burma?). If the Qing become an active factor in the Indian Ocean then developments such as the British expansion into India will have to be taken more seriously, and the Qing will have to start looking at the Europeans as competition (rather than uncivilized seafaring barbarians) while they still are at a roughly equivalent stage of development. From there it's just a matter of how much reform the Qing bureaucracy requires in order for the state to remain competitive with the Europeans.

The problem being that the Qing regime is structurally impeded from focusing on the sea. They're a northern ethnic military regime diametrically opposed to the mercantile southern sea-focused Han. It makes no sense for them to focus on the sea instead of doing what they did OTL. It would go against all their strengths and emphasize their weaknesses.

Seeing how the Qing were doomed from the start, a POD well before the 19th century possibly under the Ming could give China the strength it needed to gradually technologically advance. With that being said where ideally would the timeline diverge. I am thinking that possibly continuing Zheng He's journey's could help with China's isolation. Any thoughts?

I wouldn't say that the Qing were doomed, just they they'll be less successful than a Han dynasty due to structural factors. In any case, Zheng He is a total dead end. I know it's a very popular, common-knowledge PoD but the Zheng He voyages were the Chinese equivalent to the moon landing: an expensive prestige project that there really wasn't any practical reason to spend money on after it was over. Instead, I would recommend having the merchant-warlord Zheng Chenggong succeed in taking Nanjing instead of failing like in OTL, and then kicking out the Manchu. This would give you a mercantile, sea-focused, southern Chinese regime in power and allow for the trends of Late Ming to fully flower instead of being stopped by the Qing. You could also have Zheng Jing (Zheng Chenggongs son) survive on Taiwan with his Ming loyalist state instead of wasting his resources in China and getting conquered by the Qing. His kingdom would probably be able to take back China once the Qing started truly weakening in the 19th century and provide an excellent base for modernization.

 

[manitobot]

...Why?

Sorry I believe a mistake was made in my comment above. I was focusing on the implications of Zheng He and seemingly forgot to edit out the first part of my response. My bad. But in relation to the Qing Empire I was thinking of possibly having Lin ZeXu taking a different course of motion, seeing how he was the major catalyst in the Opium War. Perhaps more diplomacy could buy The Qing enough time to pull a Meiji under a different more liberal Dowager Empress?

 

[XFE]

Sorry I believe a mistake was made in my comment above. I was focusing on the implications of Zheng He and seemingly forgot to edit out the first part of my response. My bad. But in relation to the Qing Empire I was thinking of possibly having Lin ZeXu taking a different course of motion, seeing how he was the major catalyst in the Opium War. Perhaps more diplomacy could buy The Qing enough time to pull a Meiji under a different more liberal Dowager Empress?

To be fair, Cixi was fairly liberal in the early days of the Tongzhi Restoration. I'm not sure what bred the change in mindset (quite a bit of reading to do), but it could surely be butterflied by an earlier POD. Perhaps the Cixi-Prince Gong-Cian triumvirate keeping each other in check?
One other interesting thing that could have happened could be China using her homegrown Opium (as was seen in OTL reforms) to combat Western imported Opium more successfuly while launching less...direct offensives against the Opium trade.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

It makes no sense for them to focus on the sea instead of doing what they did OTL. It would go against all their strengths and emphasize their weaknesses.

Which is arguably what needs to happen for them to have the impetus for early reform. Nothing says "wow maybe those Europeans are actually ahead in some ways" like struggling to do that thing the barbarians have been doing as long as they've known them.

I like my suggestion of the divergence being a naval expedition to Burma, because it gets them into the Indian Ocean and doesn't change much in their overall policy beyond having an imaginative (or naive, depending how you want to spin it) advisor or two in the Qing court.

 

[Avrorrange]

Oh they most certainly can win the first one,it's just that I'm not sure whether they can win subsequent ones.They lost the first one thanks in no part due to incompetence as well as inferiority in military tech.The problem about them winning the first one is that they might not wake up and try to reform at all.Even when they were defeated in otl,they were extremely reluctant to reform.

 

[123456789blaaa]

Which is arguably what needs to happen for them to have the impetus for early reform. Nothing says "wow maybe those Europeans are actually ahead in some ways" like struggling to do that thing the barbarians have been doing as long as they've known them.

I like my suggestion of the divergence being a naval expedition to Burma, because it gets them into the Indian Ocean and doesn't change much in their overall policy beyond having an imaginative (or naive, depending how you want to spin it) advisor or two in the Qing court.

Why should the Qing care that Europeans are good at sea? The weakness of the Qing at sea was demonstrated over and over again in their wars with Koxinga and other "sea bandits" as well as Zheng Jing. They just didn't need to adapt after they beat him because there was no threat. The same is true of Europeans:leave them alone and there is no threat. There's no reason for the Qing to go to sea when they can accomplish everything they want by staying on land.

 

[SealTheRealDeal]

They just didn't need to adapt after they beat him because there was no threat. The same is true of Europeans:leave them alone and there is no threat.

So no matter what they're going to continue to see the Europeans as irrelevant sea peoples until they are literally piloting steam ships up the pearl river to besiege Canton?

There's no reason for the Qing to go to sea when they can accomplish everything they want by staying on land.

Four overland invasions of Burma, an overland invasion of Vietnam, and an overland invasion of Nepal say otherwise.

 

[123456789blaaa]

So no matter what they're going to continue to see the Europeans as irrelevant sea peoples until they are literally piloting steam ships up the pearl river to besiege Canton?


Four overland invasions of Burma, an overland invasion of Vietnam, and an overland invasion of Nepal say otherwise.

Pretty much yeah. Now, if Zheng Jing were still around on Taiwan, then the Qing would be much more alert to the threat from the sea. Europeans alone can't do that though. The best you'll get is an acknowledgement of a possible threat in the distant future.

I don't understand how the Qing campaigning on land disproves my point that the Qing can accomplish everything they want by staying on land .

 

[Intransigent Southerner]

allow for the trends of Late Ming to fully flower instead of being stopped by the Qing.

In almost every conceivable way the Qing were a great improvement on the late Ming, especially in the domains of warfare, administration, agriculture, and economy. The Manchus essentially reinvigorated what had been a declining system of administration and allowed the creation of China's greatest empire since the eighth century AD.

Why should the Qing care that Europeans are good at sea?

From the Kangxi emperor:

The Russians, Dutch, and Portuguese, like the other Europeans, are able to accomplish whatever they undertake, no matter how difficult. They are intrepid, clever, and know how to turn a profit. As long as I reign there is nothing to worry about from them for China... But if our government were to become weak, if we were to weaken our vigilance over the Chinese in the southern provinces and over the large number of boats that leave every year for Luzon, Batavia, Japan, and other countries, or if divisions were to erupt among us Manchus and the various princes of my family, if our enemies the Eleuths [Zunghars] were to succeed in allying with the Tatars of Kokonor, as well as our Kalmuk and Mongol tributaries, what would become of our empire? With the Russians to the north, the Portuguese from Luzon to the east, the Dutch to the south, [they] would do with China whatever they liked.​