After Mitt Romney's lost the 2012 US presidential election to Barack Obama, the Republican Party must decide which way to turn.
In 2013, first year of Barack Obama's second term as President of the United States, America faces many divisions among its people. The GOP is divided, mostly on immigration issues due to the Gang of Eight's comprehensive immigration reform bill that would have gave access to American citizenship for illegal immigrants. The American people is also divided on the gun control issue.
The Syrian Civil War opposing the dictatorial regime Bachar al-Assad, supported materially and militarily by Russia for economic purposes, and the Syrian rebellion intensifies, triggering debates on whether the United States should intervene militarily to support the Syrian rebellion. The Ukrainian revolution of 2014 is marked by protests against Russia's political and economic influence on Ukraine. After multiplied protests, pro-Russian Ukrainian President Viktor Yanukovych resigns, thus gradually freeing Ukraine from Russia's influence and orienting Kiev to the European Union, a tendency reinforced by the election of Petro Proshenko as President of Ukraine on May 2014. But days after Yanukovych fled Kiev on February 2014, an armed pro-Russian rebellion opposed to the Europeanization emerges in Crimea and eastern Ukraine, multiplying attacks against the Ukrainian army. Determined to protect it's economic interests in Ukraine, Vladimir Putin's Russia intervenes militarily in Ukraine, annexes Crimea, and materially supports the pro-Russian rebellion, all actions marking a violation of territorial integrity.
Due to US troops' and US allies' troops withdrawal from Iraq in 2011, this country witnesses the emergence of the jihadist group of Islamic State of Iraq and Syria (ISIS), a branch of Al Qaeda operating in Iraq and Syria. Led by Abu Bakr al-Baghdadi, ISIS takes most of the western part of Iraq and approaches Baghdad. It also extended its territory in eastern Syria. ISIS' rise forced the United States and their allies, including their Arab partners, to start an air-based military intervention in Iraq and Syria in order to fight ISIS through airstrikes.
Partly due to such increasing international insecurity and to Obama's decreasing job approval, the 2014 midterm elections were concluded through successes by the Republican Party who increased its dominance in the House of Representatives by gaining 13 more seats, which puts the party at 247 seats against 188 seats for the Democrats. Republicans also took control of the U.S. Senate by gaining 9 Senate seats, thus putting it at 54 seats against 46 seats for the Democrats. So Republicans control both chambers of the Congress, which is likely to complicate President Obama's political agenda.
At the end of 2014, the Obama administration normalized the relations between the United States and Cuba, thus reinforcing the possibility that the Cuban embargo would be lifted, a policy opposed by Republicans who think that it would increase the Castro regime's tyrannical and oppressive influence on the Cuban people. In 2014 and 2015, many innocent African-Americans were killed by white policemen or white supremacists (including in Charleston, South Carolina, on June 2015), which divides the country, triggers riots and contributes to the emergence of Black Lives Matter, a movement fighting for the African-American cause. On June 26 2015, the Supreme Court of the United States legalized gay marriage. On October of the same year the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action, an agreement of nuclear non-proliferation on Iranian nuclear, is adopted, thus lifting US sanctions against Iran though it increased concerns among the American people since the lifting of US sanctions would allow Iran to earn the necessary revenues to develop its uranium in order to construct nuclear weapons, which would be a threat to international security. And on December 2015, President Obama ratified the Paris Agreement dealing with, greenhouse gases emissions mitigation, adaptation and finance starting in the year 2020.
Obama's second term is also marked by an improvement of the economic situation through the decrease of unemployment rate. Job creation under Obama's presidency is mostly due to tax cuts for the middle class and small businesses, support to U.S. automobile industry and decreased imports of foreign oil and gas, thus reducing the unemployment rate to 5 % in January 2016. Yet, it's one of the slowest economic growths America has ever known due to increased taxes and regulations on the American people, businesses and energy industry, to a low GDP, to low minimum wage and to an increased national debt that almost hits 20 trillion dollars. In 2015, Obama has urged Congress to ratify a 12-nation free trade pact called the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), a free trade deal that would lower tariffs and increase economic and trade relations between the United States and Asian countries in the Pacific region, except for China and North Korea, thus making America competitive in Pacific and Asian markets.
In 2015, national security concerns emerged among the American people due to multiplied terrorist attacks around the world, notably two attacks in Paris (January and November) and two attacks on the United States’ territory (the first one in Garland, Texas, on May 2015 and the second one in San Bernardino, California, on December 2015).
Meanwhile, the 2016 US presidential election race starts. On March 2015, Texas Senator Ted Cruz becomes the first Republican to announce his candidacy for President of the United States. A week later, it was Kentucky Senator Rand Paul's turn. On mid-April, former First Lady, former New York Senator and former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton announces that she launches a second presidential bid, eight years after her failed bid for the Democratic presidential nomination in 2008. The next day, Republican Florida Senator Marco Rubio announces his candidacy for President of the United States, declaring that yesterday is over and that America must look to the future as well as Vice President Joe Biden who stated that it was time to continue on the current course of events. 3 days later, Tennessee Governor Bill Haslam threw his hat into the ring, claiming that it was time to return to character in leadership and a return to moderate Conservatism in the Republican party. In total, 7 Democrats and 18 Republicans are running for President in the 2016 election cycle. This high number of candidates among Republicans makes the 2016 Republican primary race the most wide-open contest.
But one of the most controversial candidacies among Republicans is businessman, reality television and real estate developer Donald Trump's candidacy who declared his candidacy in mid-June 2015 while declaring that Mexican are "
rapists, criminals and drug dealers." Donald Trump calls for a deportation of all illegal immigrants, plans to build a wall on the US-Mexican borders to stop illegal immigration and seeks to renegotiate free trade deals. Trump multiplies it's controversial comments, especially on John McCain's war hero status, and mocked disabled reporter with the following words: "U
h, I don't know what I said. Uh, I don't remember." He also promises to fight terrorism by killing women and children of terrorists. Despite these controversial comments, Donald Trump rises in the polls for the Republican nomination and even rises to the top of all the 18 Republican candidates for President. This is mostly due to the American people's increasing fatigue towards politicians and political elites which, they believe, abandoned them. Donald Trump's rise is also due to his populist message. This anti-establishment sentiment is not only felt among Republicans: it's also felt among Democrats due to Vermont Independent Senator Bernie Sanders' candidacy. Sanders opposes free trade deals and unveiled an agenda more progressive than Hillary Clinton's by promoting a 15$ minimum wage, free education and by making green energy development one of his main priorities. This agenda helps Sanders to become Hillary Clinton's main rival for the Democratic nomination. By January, only 4 Democrats and 10 Republicans remain.
It is now the month of January and at the January 14th Republican debate in North Charleston, South Carolina. Here is the current polling for both parties. This is Haslam's second to last chance to make an impact on voters before the Iowa Caucus on February 1st after consistently losing to Cruz, Rubio, and Trump in them:
RCP Republican Primary Average (Nationwide):
Trump: 36%
Cruz: 19%
Rubio: 15%
Haslam: 10%
Carson: 8%
Bush: 3%
Santourum: 1%
Huckabee: 1%
Kasich: 1%
Fiorina: 1%
Undecided: 5%
RCP Democratic Primary Average (Nationwide):
Biden: 39%
Clinton: 32%
Sanders: 27%
O'Malley: 1%
Undecided: 1%
RCP Republican Primary Average (Iowa):
Trump: 22%
Cruz: 20%
Rubio: 18%
Haslam: 14%
Carson: 10%
Bush: 5%
Santourum: 1%
Huckabee: 1%
Kasich: 1%
Fiorina: 1%
Undecided: 7%
RCP Democratic Primary Average (Iowa):
Biden: 35%
Clinton: 33%
Sanders: 30%
O'Malley: 1%
Undecided: 1%