A Primary Denouement
A Primary Denouement
May 3rd to June 3rd marked the final primary march for both parties, and the paths both took could not have been more different. For the Democrats, a cluster of primaries at the start of the month represented the last hurrah for Reuben Askew's campaign; on the 3rd he won Texas in a landslide, then three days later narrowly took the Colorado caucuses while sweeping North Carolina, Tennessee and the District of Columbia. Colorado marked his first win outside the South, and though he came a close second in Indiana - dominating counties south of Indianapolis and along the Ohio River - he was unable to keep up with Hugh Carey's big wins in Indianapolis and the more populous industrial north. A week later, Carey won Maryland and Nebraska comfortably, and Askew looked ahead to a daunting map through early June that featured only two more Southern states and substantial delegate hauls in the types of places Carey had already been winning by large margins and, with his campaign running low on funding and the math not impossible but quite difficult, he announced he would suspend his campaign, though he declined to make an endorsement formal. Askew won sympathy delegates the rest of the way, but the writing was on the wall; with the final contests on June 3rd, Hugh Carey wrapped up the Democratic nomination and two days later appeared at a press conference with Askew in Miami where the runner-up stated that "we have had our differences throughout this campaign, certainly, but I can say that Governor Carey will make a tremendous President and he has my full, unequivocal, enthusiastic, two-thumbs-up endorsement." The term "two-thumbs-up endorsement" quickly entered the political lexicon, and Democrats rejoiced at their ticket. In Carey they had a man who spoke to both wings of the party, had credibility as the "man who saved New York," a compelling personal story as a grief-stricken widower running to now rescue his country, and a certain gruff Irish blue-collar appeal in his demeanor. The types of concerns and divisions over the eventual nominee that had plagued the conventions of 1968, 1972 and 1976 were not there - Carey was the man after a positive and considerate primary campaign focused intently on the failings of the last twelve years of Republican governance.
The Republicans were not nearly as fortunate, though they ended June 3rd with a winner. To kick off May, Reagan carried Arizona but frustratingly watched Connally snatch first place in Missouri, Oklahoma and Texas (Reagan would place only third in the first of those); three days later, another split decision emerged, with the flailing Dole taking DC while Connally carried North Carolina and Tennessee and Reagan narrowly won Indiana over Dole. Reagan dominated Nebraska but lost Maryland to Dole on the 13th, and the following week lost Michigan in a landslide (believed to be due to his well-reported support of free trade with Canada worrying Michigan union workers) while blowing out his opponents in Oregon, neighboring his home state. Despite the controversies in El Salvador, Dole seemed to be righting the ship in late May, as a major block of states loomed the last two weeks. Reagan got his reprieve on the 27th, sweeping Idaho, Kentucky and Nevada by wide margins to recapture his front-runner status heading into the last series of contests, bloodied but not beaten. Connally gave an aggressive, angry speech the weekend before the contests in Rhode Island decrying Reagan as "Goldwater with a smile" and suggesting a 1964-style landslide loss if he was the nominee; Reagan's retort: "He would know, he voted for LBJ!" was seen as cleverly reminding Republican partisans of Connally's background as a Texas Democratic hatchet man.
On June 3rd, Reagan decisively won California's primaries, the biggest prize and his home state where his opponents had spent little time campaigning; he also carried New Mexico, Montana, New Jersey, Ohio, and West Virginia. Connally won only Mississippi while Dole came out ahead in Rhode Island and South Dakota; Reagan would place second in every state he didn't win, a very close second behind Connally in particular. He did not quite have the magic number to win the nomination outright but was very close; the math wasn't quite there for either Connally or Dole to catch up even if one dropped out and endorsed the other. It seemed clear that, despite its fractured nature, the Republican electorate had in the end anointed Reagan, albeit with reservations, a sharp move to the right after twelve years of Nixon and Ford and a divisive, ugly primary campaign between its final three candidates. As the myriad Republican runner-ups debated what to do next, Reagan effectively crowned himself nominee with an enthusiastic speech in Los Angeles thanking his supporters and declaring "on to November and the White House!" The sunny California optimist he so eagerly wanted to play the part of shone through in that moment briefly rather than the gruff old reactionary he had come across as for much of the primary; that he had made it within inches of the nomination four years after being denied barely after firing Sears early in the gauntlet was a remarkable feat.
The first half of the marathon was over for both parties, with their presumptive nominees effectively in place; the even more grueling back half was yet to come...
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