I've been playing with different ways in which a Central Powers victory might affect China, and one thing that is clear is that, without Soviet backing, the Kuomintang and CCP will not become nearly as prominent as they did in OTL. In fact, the Northern Expedition might be averted, as there would be no Soviet money and advisers to help Sun Yat-Sen retake Guangzhou from Chen Jiongming (this is a no USSR TL). So unless Sun manages to get another backer, it will be the northern warlords who decide the fate of China.
As to which of these warlords, that is something I've debated for a long time. First I though it'd be the Zhili clique, then I thought perhaps Fengtian, and recently I toyed with the idea of a Guominjun regime. Ultimately I've decided that the Zhili are most likely, as the Guominjun coup against Fengtian might still be suppressed by the Kwangtung Army (anti-communism was a part of their motive for intervening but it was also their fear of anti-imperialism) and Fengtian just isn't strong enough to take on the Zhili alone (Sun Chuangfang's army alone is almost as large as theirs).
However, there is one clique that could prevent the Zhili from becoming the dominant power; namely, their original rivals in the Anhui Clique. The Anhui controlled the Beiyang Government together with the Zhili after the fall of Yuan Shikai, but in OTL were discredited for their ties to Japan and their failure to reclaim the concessions in Shandong (which prompted the May 4th Movement and allowed their rivals to move against them). But in this timeline the US never enters the war, and Russia exits with a separate peace in August of 1917 (about the time China joined the Entente in OTL). With a much smaller and weaker Entente, perhaps China would not join the war, and this might have some interesting butterflies.
Potential effects:
- China staying neutral would make the sting of losing Tsingtao less burdensome; Yuan Shikai had already accepted this, and without any participation in the war or Wilsonian promises about "self-determination" China wouldn't really have much reason to feel "betrayed" by not getting it. The Anhui Clique pushed China into the war in OTL, with the goal of acquiring the former German concessions, but then agreed to give them to Japan as planned in exchange for loans. The failure to gain anything from the conflict discredited them and vindicated their rivals (the Zhili and the KMT) who had opposed entry into the war.
- Perhaps a neutral US would be more willing to provide loans to China instead of Japan; in OTL the Anhui only turned to Japan for cash and army advisers because the western powers were too busy with the war, so maybe they wouldn't upset people by appearing too pro-Japanese.
- The war and the loans provided the means and excuse for the Anhui to build up an army to forcibly reunite China, which prompted their Zhili and Fengtian rivals (along with many provincial warlords who defected to them) to form an alliance and take them down.
- Finally, the decision to enter the war at all caused massive instability and exacerbated the divisions of China. The Anhui Clique leader, Duan Qirui, had to coerce the National Assembly into declaring war, and even then he met with opposition. Notably Sun Yat-Sen's Guangzhou Government condemned the entry into the conflict, and they received money from Germany for this (which they used to recruit more warlord allies in the south).
Now, it's entirely possible that some of this would've happened anyway; China was divided and unstable as it was, Japan had already been expanding its influence (Twenty-One Demands), and Sun and the Zhili would still be there to oppose the Anhui. Perhaps the May 4th Movements and the downfall of the Anhui are inevitable, but are any of these butterflies likely? And if so, what would their China look like? Would they be able to crush the warlords as they intended or would they be forced to compromise? What kind of government would they create? Duan Qirui favored an elitist regime (as opposed to a dictatorship or democracy) and wasn't big on constitutionalism. Also, the president of China from October 1918 to June of 1922 was a monarchist who saw a Qing Restoration as inevitable, which is why he had Reginald Johnston begin tutoring Puyi; is it possible this could lead to a regime change?
As to which of these warlords, that is something I've debated for a long time. First I though it'd be the Zhili clique, then I thought perhaps Fengtian, and recently I toyed with the idea of a Guominjun regime. Ultimately I've decided that the Zhili are most likely, as the Guominjun coup against Fengtian might still be suppressed by the Kwangtung Army (anti-communism was a part of their motive for intervening but it was also their fear of anti-imperialism) and Fengtian just isn't strong enough to take on the Zhili alone (Sun Chuangfang's army alone is almost as large as theirs).
However, there is one clique that could prevent the Zhili from becoming the dominant power; namely, their original rivals in the Anhui Clique. The Anhui controlled the Beiyang Government together with the Zhili after the fall of Yuan Shikai, but in OTL were discredited for their ties to Japan and their failure to reclaim the concessions in Shandong (which prompted the May 4th Movement and allowed their rivals to move against them). But in this timeline the US never enters the war, and Russia exits with a separate peace in August of 1917 (about the time China joined the Entente in OTL). With a much smaller and weaker Entente, perhaps China would not join the war, and this might have some interesting butterflies.
Potential effects:
- China staying neutral would make the sting of losing Tsingtao less burdensome; Yuan Shikai had already accepted this, and without any participation in the war or Wilsonian promises about "self-determination" China wouldn't really have much reason to feel "betrayed" by not getting it. The Anhui Clique pushed China into the war in OTL, with the goal of acquiring the former German concessions, but then agreed to give them to Japan as planned in exchange for loans. The failure to gain anything from the conflict discredited them and vindicated their rivals (the Zhili and the KMT) who had opposed entry into the war.
- Perhaps a neutral US would be more willing to provide loans to China instead of Japan; in OTL the Anhui only turned to Japan for cash and army advisers because the western powers were too busy with the war, so maybe they wouldn't upset people by appearing too pro-Japanese.
- The war and the loans provided the means and excuse for the Anhui to build up an army to forcibly reunite China, which prompted their Zhili and Fengtian rivals (along with many provincial warlords who defected to them) to form an alliance and take them down.
- Finally, the decision to enter the war at all caused massive instability and exacerbated the divisions of China. The Anhui Clique leader, Duan Qirui, had to coerce the National Assembly into declaring war, and even then he met with opposition. Notably Sun Yat-Sen's Guangzhou Government condemned the entry into the conflict, and they received money from Germany for this (which they used to recruit more warlord allies in the south).
Now, it's entirely possible that some of this would've happened anyway; China was divided and unstable as it was, Japan had already been expanding its influence (Twenty-One Demands), and Sun and the Zhili would still be there to oppose the Anhui. Perhaps the May 4th Movements and the downfall of the Anhui are inevitable, but are any of these butterflies likely? And if so, what would their China look like? Would they be able to crush the warlords as they intended or would they be forced to compromise? What kind of government would they create? Duan Qirui favored an elitist regime (as opposed to a dictatorship or democracy) and wasn't big on constitutionalism. Also, the president of China from October 1918 to June of 1922 was a monarchist who saw a Qing Restoration as inevitable, which is why he had Reginald Johnston begin tutoring Puyi; is it possible this could lead to a regime change?
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