Although the Conservative Party held only a Minority after the 2008 Canadian Election, it was expected by everyone across the political spectrum that they would remain in power. Little did they know what was about to happen.
On December 1, 2008, just over 6 weeks after the election, the 2nd Place Liberals signed an agreement with the Third placed Bloc Québécois and Fourth placed New Democrats. Under the agreement, the Liberals and the New Democrats would enter a Formal Coalition Government, and the Bloc, while not formally a part of the government, agreed to support the Government on Confidence votes. This agreement was the first of its kind in Canada, not just in the sense of being the first time a Second Placed party had tried some kind of Coalition to take power, but also in the sense that this was the first time a party had done a formal coalition at all. Despite Stephen Harper's proroguing of Parliament, the coalition forces stuck together, and Harper's Government lost a confidence upon Parliament's re-opening.
It was something of an irony that the man who put the coalition together, Stéphane Dion, would only be Prime Minister for a dozen weeks or so, having already promised to resign as Liberal leader before the coalition was agreed to. The date of the Liberal Leadership election was to be May 2, 2009, and there would ultimately be only one candidate: Michael Ignatieff. Ignatieff was sworn in as Canada's 24th Prime Minister on May 14 and began the hard task of governing a nation in the aftermath of a massive economic crisis.
Harper now had failed to win a Majority twice against a weak Liberal Party, and had under-performed in all 3 of his elections as Tory Leader. Thus, it was only to be expected when the news began to talk of a coup against his leadership began to emerge. Initially, Harper promised to stay on and lead the Conservatives into the next election, but as soon as it became clear just how many MPs wanted him gone, he resigned.
The ensuing Tory Leadership contest was mainly a two horse race between Jim Prentice and Jim Flaherty (there were other candidates of course, but those 2 were the only 2 that had a real chance of winning). Flaherty was the preferred candidate of the Right-Wing of the Party and those who felt Harper had been unjustly forced out. Prentice meanwhile, had the support of the more moderate factions in the party, and those who felt that a more moderate leader would give the Conservatives a better result in the next election. Ultimately, on the night of June 16, Prentice narrowly edged out Flaherty, and became the next leader of a party in an advantageous position well ahead of the Liberals in the polls.
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If the Liberals had hoped their government's new popularity would improve with time, they were sorely mistaken. The Tory line of the coalition being undemocratic and illegitimate was effective when the coalition was first formed, and that didn't change once it was in power. The Liberals were not helped by Ignatieff coming off as cold and distant to many Canadians. But the 2 main things that hurt the Liberals were much, much bigger then anything regarding Michael Ignatieff's personal engagement style. The Canadian Government was racked with the one thing markets and investors loathe above all: Uncertainty. This meant the Canadian Economy suffered through an incredibly slow recovery from the crash, which obviously did the Liberals no favours.
The other thing that seriously hurt the Liberals was the fundamental incompetence of their coalition. Ignatieff had little experience in Government, and he would have had a hard enough time with a Majority in good times, let alone a coalition in the aftermath of global financial crisis. There was constant infighting among the Cabinet, especially from the New Democrats who were none too pleased with Ignatieff's more conservative tendencies.
In these circumstances, no one should have been shocked when the coalition fell ahead of it's June 2011 expiration date. With the 2 coalition parties growing further and further apart, NDP leader Jack Layton presented a long list of demands to Ignatieff in exchange for his party's continued support. Ignatieff refused. Thus, the New Democrats walked out of the coalition, and the Bloc too announced they would no longer support the government unconditionally on confidence votes. This caused the already fragile Canadian economy to do ever worse with the additional instability this generated. Thus, it was no surprise when the Conservatives introduced a vote of Confidence in early December 2009. With the New Democrats and Bloc in favor of the motion, the government fell and a new election was set for January 15.
The ensuing Campaign was rather unremarkable. All the parties ran pretty much the campaigns one would expect. The Conservatives attacked the Liberals for "subverting the will of the voters" and for the weak economy at the time. Interestingly enough, the Tories made strong appeals in Quebec, seeking to exploit the sense of betrayal many traditional federalist Liberal voters felt after the Liberals "went into bed" with the Bloc. The Liberals meanwhile, had only one thing the really could do, what with their record being so bad: Fearmonger. The Liberals ran ads concerning just how bad things would be under a Prime Minister Jim Prentice. They did attack him as a Social Conservative too, as they did with Harper, but these charges were a lot less effective this time around with Prentice's well known history as a Red Tory and his vote for Same-Sex marriage. The Bloc ran yet another "Quebec First" nationalist campaign, as they had done since 1993, and the NDP ran a social democratic campaign, running on universal pharmacare, free childcare, and sweeping changes to the tax code.
Despite all this, no one paid close attention to the campaign, because the results of the election were from the beginning a foregone conclusion. With the Tories led by a popular moderate leader and the government unpopular, it was a foregone conclusion the Conservatives would win.
Right?
Right.
It was a massacre. The Conservatives took broke Brian Mulroney's 1984 record of 211 seats by winning 217. The landslide started in Atlantic Canada. The Conservatives won 3 of 4 seats in PEI where before they had only a single seat, and in New Brunswick, the Liberals were cut down to the historically safe Liberal seat of Beauséjour. Things didn't get any better for the Liberals in Quebec. It appeared the Conservative strategy of appealing to traditionally Liberal federalist voters and presenting themselves as the true Anti-Bloc option worked. The Tories picked up Pierre Trudeau's old seat of Mount Royal, and province wide took 28 seats to the Liberal's 4. So great were the gains the Tories had made that they actually narrowly won the province wide popular vote, although the Bloc still won 13 more seats. Things still didn't get any better for the Liberals in Ontario. Prime Minister Ignatieff lost his own seat to the Conservatives, and Province wide the Liberals took only 11 seats (only just ahead of the NDP's 10 seats) to the Conservative's 83. In the West, the scale of the Liberal collapse was on a scale the likes of which had never been seen before. The Liberals took exactly 0 seats West of Ontario. Not even the ancesterally Liberal Francophone seats in Winnipeg delivered for the Grits.
At the end of the night, the Liberals were reduced to only 25 seats, well below their previous worst every performance of 40 in 1984. To make things worse, they finished Third for the first time in their history, having previously always been Government or Opposition. But now, they were far below the Bloc's 41 seats, and were only one seat above the 24 seats the NDP had won.
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Jesus that was way more writing then I was expecting to have to do. But I kept having to go back to set something up for the election to the point where I basically made a TL Length post.