Here's something I drew up a while back, thought I might try to make a little series out of it.
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Our wee Country
The 2043 general election proved to be a watershed moment in Northern Irish politics, with the small nation electing an ethnic minority First Minister, the first in Northern Ireland's nearly 130 year history. Adam Chong, a third generation immigrant of Hong Kong origin had been the surprise victor in the Social Democratic Party's leadership election in 2038, after long serving SDP leader Jack Whittaker opted to stand down after a health scare in the spring of 2038. Chong, who had served as Minister of Social Development in the last powersharing administration was a popular choice for the SDP, owing to his relatively high profile (by DSD standards) and successful tenure at the Department of Social Development. Chong was also aided by the weakness of the serving National Union government, led by the serving First Minister, Richard Haig. Haig's majority National Unionist government, which had been formed by a merger between moderate Unionist and Nationalist elements after the collapse of the formerly dominant DUP and Sinn Fein parties in the wake of the Crisis of 2017; had encountered a variety of problems during its first unrestrained period in government. While questions concerning the 'National Question' had been put to bed by the Compromise of '22, when Northern Ireland had been granted autonomy and dominion status by the Corbyn government; the basic fabric of the party was to cause multiple issues. In actuality a large big tent coalition which included metropolitan socially liberal Unionists, rural conservative Unionists, conservative Nationalists and left-leaning elements from both former communities, the party had generally been united by a shared opposition to the former pre-Crisis duopoly.
Outstanding social issues, which had persisted for decades due to the maintenance of the archaic 'Petition of Concern' mechanism in the National Assembly, which in enabled thirty MNAs (Members of the National Assembly) a direct veto over any legislation they opposed; further disagreements over continued membership of the European Union and the maintenance of agriculture subsidies would ensure that the government fell in the polls. By election year - 2043 - the NUs were in effect being propped up by the votes of various sympathetic opposition MNAs, who didn't much like the idea of the SDP in government. Nonetheless Haig opted to put his government out of its misery and asked the Governor General, Dr. John McCloskey, to dissolve the National Assembly and call a new general election. The result in terms of party size was never in any real doubt, the National Unionists in effect were assured first place in terms of seats, much like Fianna Fail had been until 2011. Still the surge by Chong and the SDP in the polls caught many off guard. On election night even some seasoned pundits were startled when Chong's SDP manage to come within a handful of seats of outperforming the National Unionists. The natural third place Clann na nGaedheal (formed by culturally conservative Republicans and Nationalists soon after the Compromise of '22) under its seasoned leader Eoin Doyle, retained third place, as the Ulster Nationalist & populist Ulster First party underperformed on its polling, owing to the awkwardness of its leader Ron Peters on the campaign trail. The testimonial Unionist Party, maintained its 8 seats in the National Assembly, owing to its exceedingly stable 'fossilised' electorate of just over 6%. Various independents won seats, while the radical socialist Solidarity party won a surprise victory in the last seat in Queen's University Belfast.
While Chong had scored a near upset, he was still in a relatively weak position, being over twenty seats short of a majority. Initially going to Ulster First, owing to the parties' overlapping fiscal policies, Chong was rebuffed by the UF leadership, who were eager to lick their wounds and recuperate in opposition. Chong managed to gain the support of the majority of Independent MNAs, as well as Solidarity's sole MNA - Jack Clark, who demanded reforms to parliamentary procedure to remove the Petition of Concern, institute progressive social reforms and rollback various spending cuts brought in under the Haig Executive. With the Unionists refusing to join any government as a point of principle, and the National Unionists not wishing to aid their mortal enemies, the SDP managed to form a confidence and supply arrangement with the nominally right-leaning Clann na nGaedheal. The deal between the two parties, which rested on the implementation of an 'Irish Language Act' (which would give equal footing to Irish with English in Northern Ireland) and increases in agricultural subsidies and programmes, was agreed nearly a fortnight after the general election. In the vote on the Executive's 'Programme for Government' (in effect an equivalent to the Queen's Speech at Westminster), some western Ulster First MNAs supported the Executive's proposals. Things looked certainly rosy as Chong was invested as First Minister.
The first major issue in the National Assembly was the much heralded Irish Language Act. A passionate and often ill tempered debate would ensue, with Doyle and the CnnG strongly fighting for their central plank position of the past twenty years, while the Unionists, in particular their leader Charlie Glass QC, would mock and attack the bill as 'silly', 'frivolous', and 'unnecessary'. Glass in particular would cause a stir when he mocked the bill as promoting "a silly, dead Leprechaun language used by the Fenians opposite to subjugate and humiliate the Protestant Unionist Loyalist peoples of Ulster", he then proceeded to throw Tayto crisp packets at the CnnG Assembly team, in an attempt to show the 'money' being 'wasted' by the bill. The furious Doyle and Clann Assembly team raised a point of order and tried to get Glass removed from the chamber. When the Speaker refused, the Clann MNAs would march from the chamber for the rest of the second reading of the bill. All the while a red faced Chung sat motionless in the First Minister's chair. Despite the hectic scenes at Stormont, the bill would pass with the support of half of the National Unionists and Ulster First parties. Chong's government would lack this level of success on its next venture - reforming the Petition of Concern. Many socially conservative MNAs, in particular on the Clann and Ulster First benches (Ulster First having been founded in favour of federalism in order to prevent Westminster interfering with social and cultural issues in NI), were strongly opposed to removing the PoC - seeing it as their very lifeline in preventing the "radical agenda of social Marxists", to quote Glass once again, "from being loosed upon Ulster. In the end a hodgepodge coalition of conservative & rural National Unionists, Ulster First-ers, Clannsmen and Unionists defeated the Chong Executive's proposals. As a result of "missing an open goal", Clark and Solidarity would bow out of supporting the Social Democratic government, making Chong's government even weaker.
The National Unionists had met in Bangor to elect their new leader. Out of a crowded field the party elected the charismatic Armagh-based former Agriculture Minister Robert Clancy to become its new leader. Clancy, a moderate conservative in the National Unionist Assembly team had been one of the few National Unionists to remain popular with the media and sections of the public in the wake of the Haig government's decline. Unlike Haig and the party's interim leader Sara Hammond, Clancy was more than happy to deliberately wreck and disrupt the Chong government and its agenda, using every parliamentary trick at his disposal. While opting to take a 'don't-hit-the-beehive' approach to social issues, Clancy shifted the party towards the centre on economics, in order to help win back suburban Northern Ireland, who had flocked to Chong at the last general election. Clancy would alarm many with his combative and rather aggressive rhetoric, vowing to "stop the usurpation of the constitution" at a rally in Botanic Gardens. Clancy would even pen an open letter to the Governor General, demanding that he instruct Chong to dissolve parliament and hold a new general election, if Chong did not oblige, Clancy urged the GovGen to sack him and replace him with a Social Democrat who would. The Governor General, knowing what the response to such an action would be, politely declined Clancy's offer.
Clancy next turned his attention to the 2045 budget. Prior to his election there had been a general agreement between the NU and SDP leadership that the NU would 'pair' MNAs to ensure the budget would go through. This would not continue under Clancy, who blocked the budget for several days before allowing it to pass - but only after various the proposed renationalisation of Translink was abandoned. Ulster First would also elect a new leader, after the resignation/putsch of the party's lameduck leader. In his place the party would elect Padraigin Mac an tSaoi (Patricia MacEntee) as its new leader. Mac an tSaoi, a former Belfast Telegraph columnist and traditionalist Catholic had been dubbed in the press as the 'Northern Irish Trump' owing to her rhetoric and stances - in particular her attacks on the Irish traveller community. Advocating for drastic reduction in immigration, protectionist trade policies and dragging the party firmly to the hard right culturally, Mac an tSaoi succeeded in replicating the party in her controversial image. Reviled by those in the media to her left (i.e. much of the commentariat), 'the Blonde Bitch' (a nickname she would relish) was remarkably popular in formerly strongly conservative Unionist areas (ironic considering her Irish Nationalist heritage), in particular to the south and east of Lough Neigh. She would notably announce her intention to contest the nominally safe Social Democrat seat of Belfast Victoria - a move which would prompt the incumbent MNA to refuse to stand again despite SDP Central Office begging him to do so. Solidarity would also see a shift in its leadership, with the party congress electing MNA Jack Clark by acclamation in 2046. Clark's victory represented a shift towards the libertarian socialist and Eurosceptic faction of the party, which had formerly been in the minority until his election as leader.
By 2046 the SDP Executive had run into a variety of problems. The first being the whittling away of its already slender majority by defections and co-options, which had made the passing of even the most inoffensive of legislation, virtually impossible. The second was the issue of Europe. Ever since the deal over 'Brexit' in the late 2010s, Northern Ireland had been a quagmire on the north western border of the EU. In the Union by necessity, but still seen as a conservative backwater. Chong's attempts to try and gain greater European funding and grants had all resulted in him returning to Belfast humiliated, even with the support of British Prime Minister Nick Boles and Taoiseach Catherine Ardagh. It exposed the divisions within the SDP, between Eurosceptic and pro-European factions. Despite being nominally supported by pro-EU elements in the National Unionists, the Clann and the Pro-EU Ulster First, Chong still appeared weak on the subject. Whatmore it fed into the perception of Chong as an inexperienced and slightly arrogant individual, who put his own personal agenda before the good of his party or country. Indeed the 'boy wonder' was relentlessly mocked by the likes of the satirical website 'The Ulster Fry' among other publications. By May 2047 Chong decided to request a dissolution and the calling of a general election.
The 2047 general election would prove to be one of the most interesting in Northern Ireland's history - in particular due to the single leaders debate held by BBC Ulster a week before the election. Chong, Clancy and Mac an tSaoi were all seasoned debaters, Clark was an able and crowd pleasing speaker, while Doyle and Glass were of the old kind of Ulster politicos. The debate would notably feature Chong sat in the middle, getting caught in between Clancy's, Mac an tSaoi's and Clark's jibes. Off on the right Doyle and Glass sparred with each other, while everyone else generally looked on. The debate seemed to confirm that election night would be interesting. Indeed it would be.
Clancy managed to increase on Haig's showing four years prior, but failed to win a majority, shocking some of the commentariat in the process. Chong and the SDP naturally fell down, but the size of the decline, losing nearly around a third of its existing seats, was unexpected. Ulster First effectively doubled their showing from the prior parliament, while Clann na Gaedheal managed to scalp two western Social Democrats. The Unionists, true to form remained static and held their eight seats, much to Glass' pleasure. Solidarity would see its Assembly team swell to four MNAs, many of them constituency MNAs from Belfast. Several Independent MNAs would also be elected. Clancy's investiture as First Minister is expected, but his desired coalition partner is thus far unknown, with Ulster First and Clann na nGaedheal suggested as possible picks; some commentators suggest the Loyalist-leaning Clancy could be the one to coax the Unionists out of their self-imposed exile and to finally enter into government. This is still all up in the air as of the current time.
Whichever one you're looking for*" into the Wikipedia search bar.
