Our exit poll has Donald Trump winning
Fie on you for being all realistic and such. Naturally, I must now respond with this.
[1] McCain nabs the nomination in 2000 and selects North Carolina Senator Liddy Dole as his running mate. Gore taps House Minority Leader Dick Gephardt to join him on the Democratic side and performs surprisingly well in the upper south. Nevertheless, with a margin of over 3 million votes, McCain carries the day.
[2] With war raging in Afghanistan and Libya, the former in response to 9/11 and the latter begun in order to neutralize Muammar Gaddafi's nuclear weapons program, McCain is able to leverage his foreign policy credentials to solidify his standing in the polls. Although Gephardt's choice of New Mexico Governor Bill Richardson as his running mate is initially hailed as a savy form of Hispanic outreach, the ticket is hit with accusations of financial impropriety on Richardson's part late in the campaign. As a consequence, voters opt not to change horses midstream and McCain is re-elected rather comfortably.
[3] The 2008 election features a tight contest between Vice President Elizabeth Dole and Senator Hillary Clinton. The two major party nominees vied for the mantle of first women president while the third party candidacies of Tom Tancredo and Tim Penny picked up surprising support among those concerned with radical terrorism and job outsourcing respectively. Although Dole would go on to lose the popular vote, thanks in part to loosing a large chunk of southerners to Tancredo (notably spoiling Kentucky for the GOP), her slim victory in the electoral college carried the day.
[4] President Dole ultimately inherited a poisoned chalice with her victory. The stock market crash rocked the nation shortly after her swearing in and the measures undertaken to combat the crisis were seen as woefully inadequate by the public. The Arab Spring*, which toppled Hosni Mubarak's Egypt, Saddam Hussein's Iraq, and Bashar Al Assad's Syria, and numerous smaller regimes, proved to be a major blow to Dole's supposed foreign policy credentials. Though the president managed to fend of a primary challenge from Texas Representative Ron Paul, her defeat to the Sanders/Feingold ticket was not a question of
if but by
how much. And it turns out, it was by alot.
[5] Note: Barack Obama remains in the Illinois Senate ITTL and Republican Peter Fitzgerald currently occupies Illinois' Class 3 U.S. Senate seat.