An Unapologetic Dem-Wank:
Lose a Battle to Win the War.
Barack Obama and the Seven Dwarfs
After the midterms, McCain seemed to be doomed for sure. His approval rating was so low there was speculation that he might not even run for reelection, and 2012 seemed to be a surefire win for the Democrats. Numerous Democrats were looking at running, with some rumors that even defeated 2008 nominee Hillary Clinton might run. After all, she had won the popular vote. Her running mate Evan Bayh was also believed to be preparing for a second Presidential campaign. Others suggested Wisconsin Senator Russ Feingold or Montana Governor Brian Schweitzer, populists popular in the bad economy. Ohio Governor Ted Strickland was widely seen as another option, having won reelection in a crucial swing state. One potential candidate who many Democratic leaders were afraid would run was businessman Donald Trump, who had spent the Spring of 2011 making increasingly outrageous attacks against the McCain Administration, suggesting that McCain was not eligible because he was born in Panama, that the Republicans rigged the 2008 election, and that McCain was allowing Osama bin Laden to remain alive as an excuse to keep the wars going.
However, towering over the field was Illinois Senator Barack Obama. Having only narrowly lost to Hillary Clinton in 2008, he had enormous name recognition while still being young and fresh. With four more years as Senator under his belt, he was more experienced, and he had spent the last four years building up allies in Congress and outside of Congress. Obama had led the fight to pass many popular bills, such as the repeal of Don't Ask, Don't Tell (which McCain vetoed) and another economic relief package (which McCain signed, to the anger of the right in his party). Obama had led pretty consistently in the polls since 2009, and even before he announced he led in fundraising and in unconfirmed endorsements. He was strong enough that Clinton decided against another run, and Feingold, Strickland, and many other candidates opted out of running as well.
When U.S. Navy Seals killed Osama bin Laden on May 1, McCain saw a boost of popularity. Foreign policy had become a major topic as a series of revolutions swept the Middle East and North Africa, with McCain vowing to protect those fighting for democracy. McCain, always focused on foreign and defense policy, was more at home speaking to Americans about these issues than economic policy, and saw a possible opening to turn the trajectory of his administration around. Bin Laden's death also ruined Donald Trump's chances of running; the businessman had managed to get second place in many polls in April, but with the death of bin Laden his conspiracy theories seemed like a joke and he collapsed in the polls, and decided against running for the Democratic nomination soon after.
In the end, while Obama managed to clear the field to an extent, he could not do so all the way, and seven major challengers emerged.
Evan Bayh, the 2008 Vice Presidential nominee, a two-term governor and three-term Senator, was encouraged to run by many moderates and midwesterners who thought Obama, who'd endorsed marriage equality before running for reelection in 2010, was too liberal to win as big a victory as he could.
Alan Grayson, two-term Congressman from Florida who attracted a large share of Donald Trump's former supporters as a radical willing to insult Republicans and the President.
Dennis Kucinich, the congressman and the choice for left-wing anti-war voters.
Martin O'Malley, the fairly standard governor of Maryland, running with a decent platform but without a clear constituency.
Bill Richardson, the former governor of New Mexico, had been cleared of accusations of corruption in 2009, but felt that he needed to prove his doubters wrong by running for office one more time. He had support in the west and among some Hispanic groups.
Brian Schweitzer, the western rural populist, was popular among western Democrats, pro-gun Democrats, as well as economic populists attracted to his single-payer healthcare proposal.
Finally, Jim Webb, running as a conservative Democrat, announcing that 2010 signaled the possibility to "bring the South home". Stressed his military credentials as the one person who would not look bad next to McCain.
Could any of these challengers actually pose a significant threat to Obama?