First The Hill, Then The Bill - What if Bill Clinton had lost in 1982?
In November 1982, former Governor Bill Clinton failed to be elected to another term in the Governor’s seat for the second election in a row. He would later say in a 2015 interview that “in that moment I decided to not become some perennial candidate. The people had spoken; they did not want me.” A few months later, Bill Clinton accepted a high-paying job teaching at Little Rock University.
In 1984, former First Lady of Arkansas Hillary Clinton announced her run for state Attorney General. She at first faced heavy opposition, but with major support from the national Democratic Party establishment leaders, she outspent her opponent 3-to-1, leading to her narrowly winning in November. Two years later, Hillary Clinton was elected Governor of Arkansas by a 2% margin.
Four years later, Governor Hillary Clinton was the keynote speaker at the 1988 DNC, where her speech received a standing ovation. After winning re-election in the fall, she signed into law a bill to extend the gubernatorial term lengths from two years to four years in 1989 (effective after the 1990 election).
After being re-elected in 1990 by a landslide, Hilary Clinton announced her run for President of the United States in mid-1991. However, she was not taken seriously until her surprise win in Iowa, then coming in a close second behind then-frontrunner Paul Tsongas in New Hampshire. After several slip-ups by Tsongas and the Clinton campaign producing a slew of negative campaign ads suggesting Tsongas was “hiding the truth about his cancer diagnosis,” Clinton began to climb in the polls, and won many primaries due to the anti-Clinton vote being split between Tsongas, Jerry Brown and other candidates. In the end, Clinton clinched the required delegate number necessary to win the nomination in early May, though Brown remained in the primaries until the convention out of protest. For running mate, Clinton chose Bob Kerrey, whom had barely attacked her during the primaries while running for President himself earlier that year, over Senators Chris Dodd and John Kerry.
Enraged by Clinton’s “underhanded tactics” in the primaries and her “outrageous” campaign platform, Tsongas contacted independent candidate Ross Perot in early June; the Perot/Tsongas ticket was announced in late July, boosting Perot’s numbers even further – the race was stuck at a three-way tie for much of August 1992. However, Perot’s conspiratorial comments in September damaged their poll numbers. Furthermore, on October 25 (the October surprise), the Clinton campaign leaked Paul Tsongas’s medical records, revealing him to not be as healthy as he said he was; the cover-up scandal damaged Perot/Tsongas’s poll numbers even further.
On Election Day, due to the failing economy and Perot’s increasingly controversial comments (especially during the debates) being capitalized on, Clinton sailed to victory on an electoral near-landslide – without even winning over 50% of the vote. The closest state was Georgia.
Democratic: Gov. Hillary Clinton (AR)/US Sen. Bob Kerrey (NE) – 42.79% – 44,682,997 popular votes – 29 states and DC – 349 electoral votes
Republican: US Pres. George H. W. Bush (TX)/US V.P. Dan Quayle (IN) – 37.57% – 39,232,068 popular votes – 20 states – 185 electoral votes
Independent: Businessman Ross Perot (TX)/Former US Sen. Paul Tsongas (MA) – 19.21% – 20,059,836 popular votes – 1 state – 4 electoral votes
Libertarian: Former State Rep. Andre Marrou (AS)/Doctor Nancy Lord (NV) – 0.25% – 261,059 popular votes – 0 states – 0 electoral votes
All other candidates & votes – 0.18% – 187,963 votes – 0 states – 0 electoral votes
Hillary Clinton became America’s third-youngest President (at age 45) and America’s first female President ever on January 20, 1993. Later that year, her administration swiftly shifted to foreign policy on November 9, when the NYC World Trade Center was bombed, severely damaging the North Tower and leading to the deaths of 543 people. President Clinton responded to this by invading Afghanistan.
After much consideration, George W. Bush, the son of former President George H. W. Bush, announced in late 1993 his decision to not run for Governor in 1994. The Bush family instead focused fully on getting John Ellis “Jeb” Bush elected Governor of Florida, while George W. Bush remained in the baseball management business. In the summer of 1995, Hillary Clinton, dealing with sagging approval ratings due to her inability to pass healthcare reform, saw a boost in popularity upon Osama Bin Laden, a major player in the 11-9-93 Terrorist attacks, being successfully captured on the border of Pakistan. A one Cleo Fields of Louisiana capitalized on Hillary’s popularity over this and rode on the President’s coattails right into the governor’s seat. Meanwhile, Hillary Clinton immediately capitalized on her sudden support as well, and managed to pass a watered-down Health Care Reform bill (a.k.a., Clinton-care) through Congress in early 1996.
The bill, however, was criticized by many on the far left of the political spectrum. A leading voice against the bill was former Governor L. Douglas Wilder of Virginia. Saying “the democratic party has failed us,” he joined the Green Party. In 1996, Green Party nominee Ralph Nader got Wilder to be his running mate; the ticket was criticized as being too bottom-heavy only by some, as Nader was more vocal on the campaign trail than Wilder.
The 1996 Republican primaries saw a narrow field of candidates, dominated mainly by businessman Steve Forbes, former Governor Lamar Alexander, freshman US Senator Mike Huckabee, and Bob Dole. Dole easily won over main challenger Huckabee in the end. In an attempt to boost his failing campaign, Huckabee at one point even promised to pick fellow US Senator Rick Santorum to be his running mate if he won the nomination. However, Huckabee dropped out of the race only 12 days after announcing this. Dole who chose New Jersey Governor Christie Whitman to be his running mate in order to neutralize the potential gender issue – which didn’t work.
Clinton predictably won re-election by a wide margin. Perot, who ran again on the newly-established Reform Party ticket, performed much better than expected. This was helped by his running mate, centrist Governor Angus King of Maine, who seemed even more popular at times than Perot himself, at least in the state of Maine. Several states came down to the wire. Nader's strong second-place performance in Maine led the Greens to an electoral victory in one of the state's districts. Republicans and Democrats called for recounts in the states, shocked by coming in third and fourth place in the state.
Democratic: US Pres. Hillary Clinton (AR)/US V.P. Bob Kerrey (NE) – 47.67% – 45,895,548 popular votes – 33 states, DC and NE-03 – 396 electoral votes
Republican: US Sen. Bob Dole (KS)/Gov. Christie Whitman (NJ) – 39.38% – 37,914,132 popular votes – 17 states – 138 electoral votes
Reform: Businessman Ross Perot (TX)/Gov. Angus King (ME) – 8.67% – 8,347,271 popular votes – 1 state – 3 electoral votes
Green: Advocate Ralph Nader (CN)/Former Gov. Douglas Wilder (VA) – 3.70% – 3,562,272 popular votes – 0 states – 1 electoral vote
Libertarian: Investment Analyst Harry Browne (TN)/Psychologist Jo Jorgensen (SC) – 0.36% – 346,599 popular votes – 0 states – 0 electoral votes
All other candidates & votes – 0.22% – 211,813 popular votes – 0 states – 0 electoral votes
Despite her old friend William Weld serving as her newest Secretary of State, President Hillary Clinton’s second term was also chaotic. Not only did she have to deal with the Afghan War growing increasingly unpopular at home, but she also had to deal with her husband, First Gentleman Bill Clinton, whom was caught on camera hugging assistant press secretary Monica Lewinsky in what was labelled “a very appropriate way” in late 1997. Rumors began to develop, and by mid-1998, seven women had stepped forward claiming to have had various sexual encounters with the First Gentleman. Hillary Clinton’s second-term agenda came into even further trouble when the Republicans grabbed control of both the House and the Senate in the 1998 midterm elections. However, not every republican celebrated in November 1998. Governor Jeb Bush of Florida, for instance, narrowly lost re-election at that point in time, ending his plans to run for President in 2000. Instead, he set his sights on the US Senate seat in 2000.
In early 1999, Mayor Rudy Giuliani’s swift response to a bombing of a major bank was hailed and lauded, but he declined to run for President in 2000. Meanwhile, Colin Powell was urged to run for President by former Secretary Dick Cheney, political strategist Karl Rove, and the entire Bush family. After much deliberation, he announcing his run in September 1999. John McCain endorsed him later that year. Powell immediately became the front runner, and won the nomination over Lamar Alexander, Orrin Hatch, Alan Keyes, Gary Bauer and some smaller candidates. For running mate, he chose Democrat-turned-Republican US Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell of Colorado in the hopes of achieving some cross-party appeal.
For the Democrats, Vice-President Bob Kerrey easily won the nomination over two minor challengers. For running mate, Kerrey considered Louisiana Governor Cleo Fields, Congressman John Lewis, Senator Paul Wellstone and close ally and friend Bill Bradley. However, he surprised political analysts by choosing Larry Echo-Hawk (Governor of Idaho since 1995) instead. Kerrey later said that he chose Echo-Hawk to unite the ticket and for the Governor’s “strong leadership skills” concerning the environment and “protection of freedom” in his home state. It was also reported to be an attempt to neutralize Powell picking a Native-American to be his running mate.
Nader of the Green Party ran for the second “and final” time, choose Winona La Duke (a state senator from Minnesota since 1998) to be his running mate. However, a major game-changer for the 2000 election was the candidacy of Jesse Ventura. In 1999, Ventura, the Governor of Minnesota and self-professed “socially liberal and fiscally conservative” member of the Reform party, was convinced to run for President by his friend Donald Trump, after Ventura failed to persuade Trump himself to run. However, due to multiple internal disputes, Ventura broke with the Reform party and ran for the Libertarian nomination instead. Ventura, saying “this seems to be the cool thing to do right now,” chose a Native-American to be his running mate as well: controversial activist Russell Means of New Mexico. Thus, the election was noteworthy for the peculiarity of all the top-four running mates being of Native-American descent, bringing the issues of Native Americans into the mainstream political discussion.
In early October, Kerrey saw a huge dip in his poll numbers over a controversy that sprouted up concerning his actions in Vietnam. While he publicly expressed guilt over participating in an attack on a village consisting mainly of women and children, the fact that it had never been discussed before connected him further to the increasingly-unpopular Clinton administration and their own alleged cover-ups, and Powell and Ventura were able to successfully cast Kerrey as dishonest as a result of this October surprise. Kerrey’s voice momentarily breaking while emotionally discussing the matter later that month also made him appear weak as well.
On election night, pundits were shocked by how well the Ventura/Means ticket performed, receiving the highest number of electoral votes for a third-party candidate since Teddy Roosevelt’s third-party bid for a nonconsecutive third term in 1912. This wasn’t the only shock the Libertarians made that night, though – in Montana, Libertarian Stan Jones actually won the US Senate seat by a mere 37% to Democratic candidate Brian Schweitzer’s 34% and Republican candidate Judy Martz’s 28%.
Republican: Former US Joint Chiefs of Staff Chairman Colin Powell (NY)/US Senator Ben Nighthorse Campbell (CO) – 43.27% – 45,608,797 P.V.s – 27 states – 286 electoral votes
Democratic: US V.P. Bob Kerrey (KS)/Governor Larry J. Echo-Hawk (ID) – 37.74% – 39,779,894 popular votes – 16 states and DC – 221 electoral votes
Libertarian: Gov. Jesse Ventura (MN)/Activist Russell Means (NM) – 11.16% – 11,763,212 popular votes – 7 states – 31 electoral votes
Green: Advocate Ralph Nader (CN)/State Sen. Winona La Duke (MN) – 5.01% – 5,280,797 popular votes – 0 states – 0 electoral votes
Reform: Former W.H. Communications Director Pat Buchanan (VA)/Former Gov. Lowell Weicker (CN) – 2.64% – 2,782,695 popular votes – 0 states – 0 electoral votes
All other candidates & votes – 0.18% – 189,729 popular votes – 0 states – 0 electoral votes
Three other US Senate seats were noteworthy as well: In Vermont, Bernie Sanders (I) narrowly won in a three-way race over incumbent Jim Jeffords. In New York, John F. Kennedy Jr. (who was pressed into running due to there being virtually nobody else to run for the democratic nomination who could win over presumed Republican nominee Rudy Giuliani) won over Rick Lazio (Giuliani ended up dropping out to instead run for another term as Mayor after his supporters urged him to stay on after another car bomb struck the city), thus making Kennedy “the reluctant Senator.” And finally, Jeb Bush was elected in Florida.
President Powell increased military operations in Afghanistan until the last major holdout of al Qaeda collapsed in 2002. In 2003, Secretary of Defense Dick Cheney claimed that Iraq was working on developing nuclear weapons. However, Powell refused to invade the country without “indisputable proof.” When a car bomb killed 21 people in Miami in November, Powell called for a massive investigation into whom caused it, a tightening of orders and airport security measures, and for the UN to increase inspection depths in Iraq. This led to Saddam Hussein, “smelling the breath of Powell’s oil-and-money-hungry cabinet breathing down my neck,” as he once put it, allowing further inspections and increasing civilian rights, “within reason, of course.” Cheney left the Powell administration in 2004, claiming his heart was causing severe health issues.
In 2002, three gubernatorial races were closely watched. In Arkansas, former First Gentleman Bill Clinton was elected Governor despite continued accusations of extramarital affairs. In New York, Andrew Cuomo was easily elected to the Governor’s seat held by his father Mario, and was considered a possible candidate for President in 2008. In Maine, a four-way popular vote split led to the election of Patricia LaMarche, the nation’s first Green governor. Four years later, the US would get its second Green governor: Anthony Pollina of Vermont. These and many other Green statewide wins – plus several US Congressional wins – were credited to the Green’s federal funding coupling (as Nader won over 5% in the 2000 election) with the increase in disapproval of “the Washington establishment” due to economic issues worsening as the 2000s decade continued.
With Powell enjoying high approval ratings, his only opponent in the primaries was Lincoln Chafee, whom did not even win his home state of Rhode Island. On the Democratic side, John Kerry, Howard Dean, Al Sharpton, and even the early frontrunner, US Senator Al Gore all lost in the primaries to Cleo C. Fields of Louisiana. Fields (elected Governor in 1995 and re-elected in 1999) was born into severe poverty in 1962 Louisiana, and was laughed at by his elementary school classmates and even teacher upon his declaration that one day he would be President. Fields managed to get four of those classmates to apologize and endorse him at the 2004 DNC.
Meanwhile, the Libertarians nominated the party’s sole US Senator for President. Jones was visually notable for having developed a bluish-grey skin, an effect of argyria, which he developed by consuming home-made colloidal silver over fears of antibiotic shortages following the Y2K Problem (which, of course, did not come to pass). The skin discoloration led to him being called “Senator Smurf” by both critics and supporters. Despite running a very serious campaign, he was largely discarded as a whole as a joke candidate, getting mainly the support of the alt-right.
Powell was seen as the victor of the first and third debates between Powell, Fields and Jones.
Most polls showed Powell in the lead, and the end results were not too surprising. Jones’ extensive media coverage, and popularity in his home state, was enough for him to just barely win over 5%, ensuring continued federal support for the Libertarian Party.
Republican: US President Colin Powell (NY)/US V.P. Ben Nighthorse Campbell (CO) – 50.71% – 62,015,716 popular votes – 29 states – 282 electoral votes
Democratic: Former Governor Cleo Fields (LA)/Former Governor Howard Dean (VT) – 41.23% – 50,422,165 popular votes – 20 states and DC – 253 electoral votes
Libertarian: US Senator Stan Jones (MT)/Activist Carla Howell (MA) – 5.09% – 6,224,805 popular votes – 1 state – 3 electoral votes
Green: US Representative Dennis Kucinich (OH)/State Representative David Cobb (TX) – 2.58% – 3,155,206 popular votes – 0 states – 0 electoral votes
Constitution: Radio Host Michael Peroutka (MD)/Radio Host Chuck Baldwin (FL) – 0.14% – 171,213 popular votes – 0 states – 0 electoral votes
All other candidates & votes – 0.25% – 305,737 popular votes – 0 states – 0 electoral votes
Several important political events occurred during Powell’s second term. In September 2006, just over three years after being proposed by Senator Orrin Hatch, the Equal Opportunity to Govern Amendment was narrowly approval with some bipartisan support. Democrats gained significant ground in the 2006 midterms, but some Republican victories caught much attention. Rudy Giuliani ran against Governor Andrew Cuomo and won by the smallest of margins, made even smaller after a Democrat-led recount produced more votes for Rudy and more unqualifiable votes for Cuomo. Andrew Cuomo later tried to “pull a Jeb” and run for the US Senate in 2008, but lost in the primaries and then retired from politics all together; he now runs Chase Bank and is worth millions. Two other Republican victories were found in the states of Wyoming and Colorado: in Wyoming, Liz Cheney, daughter Dick Cheney, was elected to the US Congress, and in Colorado, Liz’s sister, Mary Cheney, was elected to the US Congress as well.
On March 16, 2007, a US plane leaving from La Guardia was the victim of a terrorist attack. The fireball was caught on camera by tourists, and the footage was repeatedly shown on the news. Ultimately, Powell responded by invading Syria in July 2007, as a former employee of the Assad administration claimed responsibility for the attack “to avenge our fallen brothers in Afghanistan.”
Meanwhile, John McCain won the nomination over several candidates, but things did but not look good for the Republicans that year. With the economy in a dip, the Democrats were back in control of the house, and they saw several candidates run. However, only one had the charisma and energy to win over the youths, the connections to win over the rich, and the nostalgic value to win over the elderly – Senator Jack Kennedy Junior. However, when it came to the national stage, Kennedy suffered – he did poorly in the final debate and made several gaffes in October.
In the end, as the Syrian War only 16 months old and the nation was divided on where or not it would be a positive thing or not, Kennedy lost the popular vote …but won the electoral vote. With protests breaking out in conservative areas, McCain called for peace in his concession speech, for which Jack Jr. was grateful. The popularity of both Kennedy and McCain shriveled up support for the Libertarian and Green party candidates, leading to neither of them winning over 5% of the vote. Their candidates just barely clung to the Libertarian and Green state strongholds, namely Maine and Alaska, respectively, though the Greens considered the additional pickup of Vermont to be a major victory for them nonetheless.
Democratic: US Sen. John F. Kennedy Jr. (NY)/Gov. Bill Richardson (NM) – 45.94% – 60,325,567 popular votes – 21 states and DC – 301 electoral votes
Republican: US Sen. John McCain (AZ)/US Sen. Olympia Snowe (ME) – 45.95% – 60,338,591 popular votes – 24 states – 219 electoral votes
Libertarian: Former US Sen. Mike Gravel (AS)/Former US Rep. Bob Barr (GA) – 3.82% – 5,016,189 popular votes – 3 states – 11 electoral votes
Green: Gov. Patricia LaMarche (ME)/Gov. Anthony Pollina (VT) – 4.02% – 5,278,815 popular votes – 2 states – 7 electoral votes
Constitution: Radio Host Chuck Baldwin (FL)/US Army Lieutenant Darrell Castle (TN) – 0.13% – 170,712 popular votes – 0 states – 0 electoral votes
All other candidates & votes – 0.12% – 157,578 popular votes – 0 states – 0 electoral votes
Kennedy appointed Bill Clinton to be his Secretary of State, and then later appointed US Senator Barack Obama to the US Supreme Court.
In early 2009, Kennedy removed American troops from Syria in exchange for a UN-led coalition of troops from multiple nations, leading to the removal of Bashar al-Assad from power in 2010. In February 2010, the Equal Opportunity to Govern Amendment (first proposed in July 2003) was finally ratified by enough states to become law, finally allowing foreign-born citizens to be eligible for the Presidency (however, Schwarzenegger declined to run in 2012 against Kennedy, saying “he’s a close friend and cousin-in-law”).
In mid-2010, Vice-President Bill Richardson finally had to resign over being investigated for improper business dealings he conducted while Governor of his home state, a resignation that many remarked was eerily similar to Vice-President Spiro Agnew’s. Kennedy replaced Richardson with former Governor Gary Locke. However, Locke declined to run for a full term, and Kennedy nominated US Navy Admiral-turned Secretary of Defense James G. Stavridis to be his third VP at the 2012 DNC. However, the US political events of 2009 and 2010 paled when compared to the US political events of 2011 and 2012.
The 2012 election cycle was a shocker. Many early watchers of the election cycle expected US Senator Jeb Bush would win the nomination easily – until Governor Rudy Giuliani jumped onto the scene. Giuliani ran on a shockingly xenophobic platform calling for an incredibly strict immigration policy, militarization of the US-Mexican border or even a wall to be built across the border “if necessary, and it likely is,” an increase in US military involvement abroad, a banning of immigration from muslim-majority countries, and an expansion of the powers of the FBI, CIA, and NSA on the grounds of national security. He was prompted to run over his “disgust” of the Richardson Scandal; others state he was still shell-shocked from the many terrorist attacks he had to deal with while Mayor and then Governor. His firece rhetoric lead to him becoming the frontrunner by January; Giuliani narrowly won in the primaries over US Senator Jeb Bush, John Kasich, Marco Rubio and 14 other candidates. The Rudy-Jeb feud was fierce and negative, with Governor Giuliani even making personal attacks against the Bush family. Despite this, Governor Giuliani maintained a strong cult following and clinched the nomination in late May. Many thought that was it for the Bush dynasty.
But it wasn’t. The slew of insults against him and his family members led George W. Bush, now the Commissioner for Major League Baseball, to resign from that position shortly before the RNC in order to run an independent campaign for President. Giulani soon found nearly all Republican donors and many republican politicians backing “the Alt-Right Alternative.” But the drama did not stop there. The Cheney family was divided on the Republican split between George Bush – an establishment figure – and Rudy Giuliani – a racist, sexist, homophobic neocon. Cheney’s conservative daughter Liz supported Giuliani, while the more liberal daughter Mary supported Bush. An amazing turn of events occurred when Bush and Giuliani picked each respective Cheney daughter to be their running mates, which backfired severely – it highlighted how badly divided the Republicans were. Dick Cheney remained silent on the issue, but reportedly supported George W. Bush out of respect for George H. W. Bush despite his “favorite” daughter supporting Giuliani.
In November, George W. Bush just barely won more electoral votes then Giuliani. However, neither of them managed to take down the incumbent President; the Republican split was enough to give “Jack Junior” an electoral landslide. The Libertarian and Green candidates, meanwhile, underperformed after being excluded from the Kennedy-Bush-Giuliani debates and overall not being taken seriously as candidates despite their large presence/support found online.
Democratic: US President Jack Kennedy Jr. (NY)/former Secretary of Defense James G. Stavridis (VA) – 45.03% – 58,127,161 popular votes – 31 states and DC – 384 electoral votes
Independent: Former MLB Commissioner George W. Bush (TX)/US Rep. Mary Cheney (CO) – 23.01% – 29,702,556 popular votes – 8 states – 76 electoral votes
Republican: Governor Rudy Giuliani (NY)/US Rep. Liz Cheney (WY) – 25.69% – 33,162,042 popular votes – 10 states – 74 electoral votes
Libertarian: US Rep. Ron Paul (TX)/Former US Rep. Tom Campbell (CA) – 3.15% – 4,066,191 popular votes – 1 state – 3 electoral votes
Green: Comedian Roseanne Barr (HA)/Richmond Mayor Gayle McLaughlin (CA) – 2.94% – 3,795,160 popular votes – 0 states – 1 electoral vote
Constitution: Former US Rep. Virgil Goode (VA)/Former Party Chairman Jim Clymer (PA) – 0.07% – 90,361 popular votes – 0 states – 0 electoral votes
All other candidates & votes – 0.11% – 141,994 popular votes – 0 states – 0 electoral votes
Remembering all of the trouble his friend Jesse Ventura had gone through in 2000, and having seen all of the headache his friend Rudy Giuliani had gone through in 2012 (which arguably cost him re-election in 2014 to state assemblywoman Zephyr Teachout), Donald Trump decided against running for President in 2016. Instead, another celebrity-politician ran: former Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger. In a field of 11 other Republicans, the Arnold easily secured the nomination by April. The Democratic primaries, however, were much more hostile. Bill Clinton, the US Secretary of State from 2009 to 2013 and the establishment favorite, narrowly won the nomination over Al Gore, the progressive alternative (and US Senator since 1985, having been elected in 1984, 1990, 1996, 2002, 2008, and 2014). For running mate, Schwarzenegger hesitantly chose Republican Rand Paul over John Kasich, in order to siphon votes away from the Libertarians (though some joked it also allowed for less letters on bumper stickers and other merchandise).
The Schwarzenegger/Paul ticket managed to energize enough of the vote to win over Bill Clinton in November, an election result expected by many, though the popular and electoral margins were much closer than expected. The Constitution Party nominee tried to woo in the lingering Giuliani supporters, but failed miserably to get even close 5% of the vote.
Republican: Former Gov. Arnold Schwarzenegger (CA)/US Sen. Rand Paul (FL) – 46.75% – 62,698,293 popular votes – 30 states - 296 electoral votes
Democratic: Former US Sec. of State Bill Clinton (AR)/US Sen. Cory Booker (NJ) – 43.19% – 57,923,835 popular votes – 19 states - 239 electoral votes
Libertarian: US Sen. Gary Johnson (NM)/Former US Sec. of State Bill Weld (MA) – 4.01% – 5,377,971 popular votes – 1 state – 3 electoral votes
Green: Former Governor Jill Stein (MA)/Former Lt. Governor Nina Turner (OH) – 4.84% – 6,491,124 popular votes – 0 states – 0 electoral votes
Constitution: US Rep. Michelle Bachmann (MN)/Former US Rep. Tom Tancredo (CO) – 1.05% – 1,408,197 popular votes – 0 states – 0 electoral votes
All other candidates & votes – 0.16% – 214,582 popular votes – 0 states – 0 electoral votes
Kasich became Secretary of State. Schwarzenegger currently has high approval ratings. With 2020 still three years away, early preference polls show that the leading candidate for the Demcoratic nomination is former Governor Jennifer Granholm, while the Greens may nominate Tony Pollina, the former Governor of Vermont. Governor of Indiana Rupert Boneham and US Congressman from Missouri Austin Petersen will likely run for the Libertarian nomination. Schwarzenegger is unlikely to have any major primary opposition.
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