Le Bon Jack (Chapter one)
By 2015 Stephen Harper had been Prime Minister for a little more than nine years, making him the second longest serving conservative head of government behind his idol Sir John A. Macdonald. Like the many governments that had proceeded him the near decade in power had left his government scandal plagued and unpopular. Allegations of corruption, voter suppression, fraudulent expenses by certain conservative senators, the F-35 fighter jet boondoggle, accusations of muzzling scientists and journals, combined with a relatively weak budget suggested that the Tories had finally reached their expiration date with voters. Making matters worse, polling suggested that his main rival amongst the electorate was the personally popular Jack Layton. Riding a wave of voter discontent in 2011, Layton and his party had displaced the Liberal Party, once dubbed Canada’s “Natural Governing Party”, and formed Canada’s Official Opposition. Almost immediately after becoming Opposition Leader, the NDP leader was forced to temporarily step down from his post on July 28th in order to fight an aggressive form of cancer. Much to the relief of the country, and his supporters in particular, Layton was able to defy the odds and resume his role as leader in September. The Liberals, having been humiliated by the election results, found themselves searching for a solution that could lead them out from the political wilderness. Some party figures, including former Prime Minister Jean Chretien, suggested that the Liberals merge with the NDP, much as had been speculated throughout the 1990s. Such a notion proved unpopular with the party executive, who only reluctantly allowed Toronto MP Bob Rae to become interim leader when no other candidates were interested. To make matters worse, one of the party’s rising stars and potential leadership candidates, Justin Trudeau, privately made it clear that not only was he uninterested in the leadership, but with public service as well, indicating that he would not re-offer himself in the next election. Without a star candidate like Trudeau, the party membership would instead back Rae in the ensuing leadership election, who had distinguished himself in the interim despite having to contend with the likes of Stephen Harper and Jack Layton, arguably the strongest opposition leader in decades, during Question Period.
The Tories and the NDP repeatedly traded the polling lead in the years prior to the election, and for most of the campaign itself this didn’t change. Despite his many faults voters seemed to trust Prime Minister Harper on the economy, an issue he and his team exploited repeatedly in and out of the House of Commons. For every attack on the government’s ethics came a “Canada’s Economic Action Plan” announcement or an attack ad suggesting the NDP would destroy the country’s economy. However, voters seemed more willing to trust Jack Layton and the NDP on the issues of healthcare and honesty. Even before the writs were dropped it was clear that the ballot question would be between economic management and integrity.
While the Tories had hoped that an extra long election campaign would give voters the time to conclude their flirtation with the NDP, it proved to be the opposite. Jack Layton again proved to be Stephen Harper’s greatest challenger, laying one attack after another during the various leader’s debates. Even Bob Rae, who seemed sidelined by the media during the majority of the campaign, was able to land his own blows against the Prime Minister, pulling the Liberal’s polling numbers back into the 20s. Even the Conservative’s notion of a coalition government seemed less frightening, as a majority of NDP and Liberals voters routinely listed the other as their second choice, and during the initial years of 2011 and 2012 seemed to support the notion of a merger between the two parties. Yet the economy was an important issue to most voters, and for some across the country the notion of an NDP government was still too horrible to imagine, as in the case with some spots in Ontario and the West.
On Election Day the voters elected an NDP government, albeit a minority, the first in the country’s 148-year history. Those who wanted the Tories out but were unable to vote for the NDP, including many urban-located Red Tories disenfranchised with the Harper Government, took the Liberals off life support. While failing to form the Official Opposition, Bob Rae had doubled the party’s standing in Parliament and had in turn secured his position as leader. Stephen Harper meanwhile had also managed to pull off a comeback of sorts, forming the largest Official Opposition in Canadian history, falling but a few seats short of the NDP thanks in part to vote splitting in key ridings. However, as he had made clear to his party, defeat for the party meant that he would resign the leadership, a contest that would need to be held soon due to the unpredictability of a minority parliament. Canadians had given the NDP a tepid mandate to govern the country, and it seemed like Jack Layton was poised to usher in a new era of civility and accountability. Or so his media team would have the country believe.
Almost immediately the headaches began for the Layton Government. While he had spent ample time prepping his “Orange Crush” MPs, those who from the beginning of the 2011 campaign were not even remotely believed to have a chance at getting elected, to become a strong and capable opposition team, governing was completely different. Unlike the Tories and NDP, who had been elected with members at least somewhat familiar with governance, the NDP entered parliament with virtually zero experience, save for Tom Mulcair, the new Deputy Prime Minister and Justice Minister, and a handful of other former provincial politicos. The first year of the Layton government was plagued by numerous policy missteps, unusual and in most cases embarrassing staff hires, and in at least one instance a near diplomatic incident involving health minister Niki Ashton and foreign affairs minister Paul Dewar, both of whom seemingly offered a public endorsement of U.S. presidential candidate Bernie Sanders over former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Headlines in American newspapers of potential Canadian interference in Democratic Party primaries close to the U.S. – Canada border prompted an official declaration and assurance of neutrality by Prime Minister Layton in the House of Commons, echoing that of former Prime Minister Stephen Harper’s in 2008.
For the Tories the aftermath of the election had been bitter sweet. The glue that had kept their party together for so long, Stephen Harper, was now gone, and headlines and pundits predicted that the party would engage the ideological squabbles that had plagued them during the 90s. Almost immediately following Harper’s resignation it was clear that his political neighbour and mentee Jason Kenney, would be the frontrunner to replace him. Although there had been ample chatter that Kenney would abandon Ottawa for Albertan politics, the chaos of a minority parliament seemed to have proven to irresistible for the Calgarian MP to pass up, especially if it meant him becoming Prime Minister. With considerable support amongst Western MPs and fundraising cash, Kenney main opponent in the leadership election would be that of Maxime Bernier, the libertarian-leaning MP from Quebec. Kenney would go on and dispatch Bernier on the second ballot of the contest, rewarding him with the role of deputy leader in order to unify the party. However, Kennedy’s leadership proved somewhat damaging for the Tory brand, as the moderates, Red Tories, and city-dwelling voters viewed the new Tory chief as a continuation of Harper and the Conservative’s inability to acknowledge their mistakes during the last campaign, most noticeably Muslim-baiting through the hijab issue in Quebec. As well, the Tories found themselves in somewhat of a tough spot, as portraying themselves as the party of middle-class families proved difficult with a bachelor leader, especially against Jack Layton and the numerous “accidental” snapshots of him playing with his grandchildren.
Despite the perception that he was only a social conservative, Kenney used various opportunities to publicize his progressive credentials. Having previously served as Immigration Minister, the Tory leader’s connections to Canada’s multicultural community were well known, having undertaken numerous visits and photo-ops during his time in government, a trend that he continued as opposition leader. Marking a political first, Kenney also became the first conservative leader to march in the annual Gay Pride parade in Toronto, much to the chagrin of some of his more right-wing colleagues. He even took credit for the fact that his party had dropped its opposition to same-sex marriage, although political observers noted that it was in fact fellow Calgarian MP Michelle Rempel who spearheaded the change. Yet when it came to the topic of Syrian refugees, which the Canadian government had pledged to take in roughly 30,000 by the end of 2015, Kenney’s opposition highlighted what many voters described as the Tories “heartless” mentality.
By 2016 the NDP had managed to implement or begin the process of implementation for many of its campaign promises. Prime Minister Layton had informed U.S. President Barack Obama that Canada would immediately withdraw from both Syria and Iraq, as well as oppose the new Trans-Pacific Partnership. While many Canadians applauded the Layton government’s investment in aboriginal education, healthcare, and the promised doubling of the Canada Pension Plan and QPP benefits, the constant public spats with provincial Premiers had begun to cause the government headaches. With the only NDP governments being in Alberta, Manitoba (until the 2016 provincial election), the federal government found itself without any political allies. Tory and Liberal Premiers alike, in particular Saskatchewan’s Brad Wall and Ontario’s Kathleen Wynne, sought to strike a balance between opposing certain government policies, thus giving the NDP’s provincial counterparts the opportunity to create the narrative that only NDP provincial governments could work with an NDP Ottawa, and from bowing to the federal NDP’s every demand, which in turn would possibly grant their provincial branches credibility. In the end, as was expected, the conservative leaning Premiers proved unwilling to work with Ottawa on most issues while Liberals only did so when the situation benefited them.
Even before the campaign began the general consensus across the country was that Jack Layton would be re-elected. Polling showed that the NDP leader remained popular with the electorate, indeed significantly more than his own party, while the Conservatives and Liberals were dogged down by their own party heads. Despite his efforts Kenney entered the 2017 federal election perceived as the “Stephen Harper candidate”, while Bob Rae was considered by most Canadians to be capable, but “uninspiring”. As well, the Tory leader’s insistence on attacking the NDP’s “socialist” policies precipitated ridicule across the punditry and online commentators, with the Prime Minister’s spin team sending out television ads and leaflets comparing Kenney to the increasingly radical Republicans south of the boarder than conservatives in the mold of Brian Mulroney or even Peter MacKay. In a moment that alleviated some of the Tories’ misfortune, NDP MP Pat Martin suggested that Kenney was incapable of looking out for the best interests of Canadians families because he lacked one, prompting calls, including from Kenney himself, for an apology from both Martin and Layton, as well as the former's resignation as the NDP candidate for Winnipeg Centre. The incident would become one of Kenney’s leading charges against the NDP in his stump speeches.
Pundits agreed that while the NDP had proven themselves capable of governing the country, some of their more left-wing members still caused some worry amongst the electorate, especially those who were willing to dip into more aggressive rhetoric when discussing the Conservatives. The Liberals, who had hoped to once again become the alternative to those unwilling to support either extremes, found themselves relegated to strongholds in Atlantic Canada, who had a history of propping up damaged legacy parties, as in the case of the Progressive Conservatives during the 1997 election. With the Tories secure in the prairies and in most cases Alberta, whose provincial government had become deeply unpopular since their election two years’ prior, the Liberals in the Atlantic and the NDP in BC and Quebec, the ever important battleground of Ontario, in particular the GTA, became the major focus for the three major party campaigns. Unfortunately for the Conservatives, with ads featuring a younger Kenney as an anti-abortion activist during his University years, virtually destroyed the party’s chances in more moderate to centre-left leaning urban, metropolitan regions like Vancouver, Toronto, Montreal, and Ottawa.
Canadians re-elected the NDP to power, again with a minority government, despite polling numbers that suggested the party was on the cusp of forming its first ever majority. Yet unlike the previous parliament Jack Layton could clearly command the confidence of parliament without constant worry from the Conservatives, who had lost more than a dozen seats and their own leader, who announced his resignation the morning following Election Day. For the Liberals the results were, unsurprisingly, a disappointment. Not only had they failed to make expected gains in places like Montreal and Toronto, they had in fact lost seats. As for Bob Rae himself, his resignation was made all the more embarrassing once it became clear that he, like Michael Ignatieff six years earlier, had narrowly lost his own seat, in this case by a mere 238 votes. Jack Layton now found himself with a strong minority government with leaderless opposition, guaranteeing the NDP’s reign in Ottawa would at least last a few more years.
For much of his time as Prime Minister, Jack Layton could boast that he had good relations with most of the world leaders. A long-time advocate of President Obama, the two men enjoyed a close personal relationship despite their disagreements on trade and foreign policy. The Prime Minister had refused many of the President’s attempts to get his government to sign on to the TPP, and the NDP’s anti-war flank of the party was strong enough to provoke Canada’s limited withdrawal from Syria and Iraq, albeit with some bombings and training in order to appease allies. Regarding Great Britain relations were somewhat more strained. While he was personally on good terms with David Cameron, despite their political differences, he had a more difficult time with his successor Theresa May, who had been reported as considering Layton a Canadian version of her Labour opponent, Jeremy Corbyn. As well, it was a well known fact that some within the NDP held strong republican views, further causing some friction between Her Majesty’s two governments. Yet Layton’s most contentious relationship came with Obama’s successor, former Secretary of State Hillary Clinton. Considered by those in Layton’s circle as a wall street wolf in progressive clothing, the Canadian Prime Minister was in turn viewed by the Clinton (II) White House as a Bernie Sanders-esque politician with a smug inferiority complex. A previous incident involving Ministers Paul Dewar and Niki Ashton had created the perception that the Layton government had attempted to aid the Bernie Sanders campaign, an extremely dangerous faux pau when the leader of the free world was a woman who could politically bludgeon her opponents to death without ever being in the room with them. Threats of reevaluating NAFTA, ironically and issue that Layton had previously advocated for, jeopardized the long-crafted notion that the NDP could manage the economy. The NDP’s continued limited engagement in conflicts in the Middle East, while somewhat popular amongst a chunk of the electorate, had further strained Layton’s relationship with his British and American counterparts. Making matters worse was the fact that his second-in-command, Justice Minister Tom Mulcair, had begun soliciting members for their support for a future leadership contest, further fueled by rumours that Layton, who would be 71 by the tentatively schedule 2021 federal election. This in turn had begun to undermine Layton in certain circles within his own party.
Meanwhile for the Tories the resignation of Jason Kenney had opened up a flood of potential candidates, stretching from various corners of the country. On the political right, former House Speaker Andrew Scheer offered to put a kinder, gentler face on the Harper-Kenney approach. Joining him in a similar fashion were former MP Brad Trost, and former cabinet minister Tony Clement, who many argued was campaigning on the belief that “third time the charm”. On the moderate and red tory wings stood a collection of Ontario and Quebec MPs, including Lisa Raitt, Gerard Deltell, Scott Reid, Erin O’Toole, Michael Chong, and Maxime Bernier. The crowded field eventually whittled down to Scheer and O’Toole, with the former Veteran’s Affairs minister edging him out. However, Scheer’s, and to a greater extent even Kenney’s defeat failed to quell the conservative-wing of the party, who viewed the Ontario MP with great distrust, unofficially anointing Brad Trost as his unofficial critic of ideological affairs. Pundits noted that when the Tories remained divided, they lost elections, a tradition that the NDP and the Liberals hoped would continue.
With Bob Rae gone many Liberals sought out the white knight that had spurned them years previously, Justin Trudeau. Young, charismatic, able to connect with voters on a personal level, came with the right last name and from the right province, the son of Canada’s 15th Prime Minister checked all the boxes necessary for a potential comeback. The problem was that he didn’t want it. Since retiring from politics Trudeau had returned to teaching, and any political comeback for him would involve municipal politics at best, where he could better stay in tune with his community. There was even talk that Trudeau might challenge Mayor Denis Coderre come 2021. Without him all eyes turned to the “imitation leather” candidate, Dominic LeBlanc. Young, charismatic, somewhat able to connect with voters, his father was a former cabinet minister and Governor General, LeBlanc checked enough boxes to become the next Liberal leader, albeit not the one that many had hoped for. Still, his coronation as leader provided the Liberals a small bump in the polls, enough so to further threaten Jack Layton’s hold on the Prime Minister’s Office.
Which turned out shorter than was thought. Years of stress had left its mark on Layton. Having already narrowly beaten cancer in 2011, the demands of being Prime Minister had placed further strain on his health, to the point that his doctors advised a slower agenda for the NDP leader or his life could be placed in jeopardy. Hoping to avoid becoming the third Prime Minister to die in office, Layton privately confirmed to caucus his intent on retiring after the next election. This decision, however, proved insufficient for some party members, namely those who believed they had a better chance at achieving the government’s re-election. Subtle rumours began to spread regarding the Prime Minister’s health, and as such his capability to continue on in office. Rumours about those rumours suggested that Mulcair’s office was behind the leaks. Although nothing could be proven publically, privately a civil war erupted between the PMO and the JMO, to the point that neither Layton nor Mulcair could be in the same room as the other. Whispers had gotten loud enough that by 2018 Layton had planned to hold a press conference and address the health rumours head on, surrounded by his cabinet and his doctors, and confirm his impending retirement halfway through his potential next mandate. Yet, as if the universe itself had caught wind of his plans, the press conference never happened. While attending the G7 in Munich the Prime Minister suffered a heart attack, which in turn threw the government into chaos back home. While Deputy Prime Minister Peter Julian was technically in charge of the government as dictated by an agreement voted upon by caucus, most MPs turned to Justice Minister Tom Mulcair, who relished the opportunity to calm the country while appearing as Prime Ministerial as possible. While observers later noted that it was unlikely that Mulcair wished any real harm towards the Prime Minister, an opportunity is an opportunity in the world of politics. Confusion mounted as questions were raised as who would succeed Layton should he die, with little information coming from the government. Fortunately for Julian the Prime Minister survived his ordeal, an instead of announcing his impending retirement he announced his immediate retirement following the election of a successor, with a leadership election quickly scheduled for 2019.
From the outset the frontrunner was Mulcair. He had amassed the donors, the support amongst MPs, and was set to moderate the NDP to a point where a majority was finally possible. No other challengers seemed willing to place their names forward, lest they risk a timely change in power, with Nathan Cullen, Niki Ashton, Paul Dewar, Rebecca Blaikie, and Alexandre Boulerice all bowing out. But then, an announcement that threatened to tear the NDP apart even further. Olivia Chow, Layton’s wife and Transport Minister announced her intention to seek the leadership and continue her husbands good work. Perhaps the bitterest leadership campaign since the Chretien-Martin feuds ended in the closest result in Canadian history, with Chow defeating Mulcair by a margin of only 12 votes. The NDP had a new leader, and the country braced itself for its second female Prime Minister, joining America and the United Kingdom, and it’s first of Chinese ethnicity.
So first off huge thanks to
@LeinadB93 for helping out with the maps. As you all know he does absolutely fantastic if not perfect work, and was kind enough to lend me some support. Also special thanks to
@True Grit and
@RogueBeaver for providing some assistance with the details, giving me a few ideas, and hearing me out while I spewed crazy, nonsensical ideas. I've got one more chapter of this planned, so I hope you all stay tuned.
And of course if there are any outstanding errors, please let me know and I'll try and correct them as soon as possible. I am admittedly rusty, and I've never really been good at the whole "write-up" part of TLs.