Alternate Electoral Maps

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Fed

Nanwe said:
That's what I'm wondering myself - after I wrote it that is. It could be both, I suppose depending on whether they want to signal that they are Christian democrats as an ideology, or Christian and democrats as a non-related political adjectives. That being said, it does appear on wiki that Demócrata Cristiano (as well as Social Cristiano) is more common in party names in general, including in Spain.

This allows me to rediscover the 1970s EDCEE (Christian Democratic Team of the Spanish State) party that existed in the political parties' soup letter that was the early Transition.
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I'd think the most natural sounding thing would be going the Italian route and simply calling the party Democracia Cristiana.
 
Tex Arkana

Tex Arkana

Can anyone guess what causes this map in 2020? (That's Atlas red, not Republican red)



genusmap.php
genusmap.php
 

Larry Young

Tex Arkana said:
Obviously, but can you guess what specific policies/disasters/etc.. cause Trump to lose so badly?
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Possibly the whole situation with Obamacare, along with an economic recession, foreign policy reverses in the Middle East, and failures by Trump to fulfill items on his agenda.
 
Tex Arkana

Tex Arkana

Larry Young said:
Possibly the whole situation with Obamacare, along with an economic recession, foreign policy reverses in the Middle East, and failures by Trump to fulfill items on his agenda.
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I was thinking that the AHCA is passed and 24 million people do lose their health insurance, and then on top of that, Trump blows up the deficit and starts another war (or two) in the middle east. also, just before election day in 2020 a tape comes out of him using racial slurs on the set of The Apprentice.
 

naraht

Tex Arkana said:
Can anyone guess what causes this map in 2020? (That's Atlas red, not Republican red)
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Well, it isn't a straight shift from 2016 since Trump beat Hillary in Kentucky by 29.84% and South Dakota by 29.79%.

So you need a roughly 15 point shift (+15D, -15R) with the shift being slightly more in the Southeast than the rest of the country. The only thing that springs to mind is that Trump cheats on his wife with Omarosa. (Which I count as being approximately equal to the chance that Barack Obama or Hillary Clinton would cheat on their spouses with Omarosa)
 
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Larry Young

Tex Arkana said:
I was thinking that the AHCA is passed and 24 million people do lose their health insurance, and then on top of that, Trump blows up the deficit and starts another war (or two) in the middle east. also, just before election day in 2020 a tape comes out of him using racial slurs on the set of The Apprentice.
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Interesting. I'm also thinking of coming up with another future timeline of the 21st century, similar to my one here: http://fiction.wikia.com/wiki/Basic_Outline_of_21st_Century_America, and I'm going to assume a one-term Trump Presidency.
 
Tex Arkana

Tex Arkana

Larry Young said:
Interesting. I'm also thinking of coming up with another future timeline of the 21st century, similar to my one here: http://fiction.wikia.com/wiki/Basic_Outline_of_21st_Century_America, and I'm going to assume a one-term Trump Presidency.
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I'm very intrigued, let me know if/when you finish it.

Also, as for my scenario, the only reason the Deep South (other than Georgia, which is of course much swingier than the rest of the Deep South) goes for the Democratic nominee is because of The Apprentice tape, which mobilizes Southern blacks to vote at an unprecedented rate. without that tape and with all the other disasters, I'd say Trump wins Alabama and maybe Mississippi too.
 

Larry Young

Tex Arkana said:
I'm very intrigued, let me know if/when you finish it.

Also, as for my scenario, the only reason the Deep South (other than Georgia, which is of course much swingier than the rest of the Deep South) goes for the Democratic nominee is because of The Apprentice tape, which mobilizes Southern blacks to vote at an unprecedented rate. without that tape and with all the other disasters, I'd say Trump wins Alabama and maybe Mississippi too.
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What about the Midwest? Or Western states in general? How much of the popular vote is garnered by Trump? Who do you envision his Democratic opponent being?
 
Tex Arkana

Tex Arkana

Larry Young said:
What about the Midwest? Or Western states in general? How much of the popular vote is garnered by Trump? Who do you envision his Democratic opponent being?
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Trump just bleeds support all over the country, in every region and state. The upper south swings hard against Trump due to all the people in coal country who now have no healthcare, the Rust Belt swings hard against Trump because those manufacturing jobs don't come back, the rest of the country swings massively to Democrats for similar reasons. Trump just does awfully across the board, getting 40% or less in some normally competitive states (Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire) and even losing deep red states like Alabama and Kentucky, albeit by razor thin margins. Trump wins 37% of the popular vote, Steve Bullock/Corey Booker win 59% and third parties pick up 4%.


The close states (decided by 5% or less) are:


*Alabama* - Bullock wins by .99%

*Idaho* - Bullock wins by 1%

*Utah* - Bullock wins by 1.3%

*Kentucky* - Bullock wins by 1.25%


*Tennessee* - Bullock wins by 2%


*South Dakota* - Trump wins by 3%

*Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Missouri are all won by Bullock by a margin of roughly 5%*.

The tipping-point state is Michigan, which Bullock wins 61-36.


Bullock performs exceptionally well in the West, winning California with 70% of the vote and winning Nevada, Oregon, Washington State, and his home state of Montana by double digit margins.
 

Larry Young

Tex Arkana said:
Trump just bleeds support all over the country, in every region and state. The upper south swings hard against Trump due to all the people in coal country who now have no healthcare, the Rust Belt swings hard against Trump because those manufacturing jobs don't come back, the rest of the country swings massively to Democrats for similar reasons. Trump just does awfully across the board, getting 40% or less in some normally competitive states (Virginia, Colorado, New Hampshire) and even losing deep red states like Alabama and Kentucky, albeit by razor thin margins. Trump wins 37% of the popular vote, Steve Bullock/Corey Booker win 59% and third parties pick up 4%.


The close states (decided by 5% or less) are:


*Alabama* - Bullock wins by .99%

*Idaho* - Bullock wins by 1%

*Utah* - Bullock wins by 1.3%

*Kentucky* - Bullock wins by 1.25%


*Tennessee* - Bullock wins by 2%


*South Dakota* - Trump wins by 3%

*Mississippi, Louisiana, Arkansas, and Missouri are all won by Bullock by a margin of roughly 5%*.

The tipping-point state is Michigan, which Bullock wins 61-36.


Bullock performs exceptionally well in the West, winning California with 70% of the vote and winning Nevada, Oregon, Washington State, and his home state of Montana by double digit margins.
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I wonder what the county map would look like for the Democrats in this scenario. I assume they would win a vast majority of counties, similar to Johnson in 1964.
 
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