Alternate Electoral Maps II

[Tex Arkana]

A project I'm working on - this will be a county map for if the election had been held at the peak of Clinton's convention bump, based on a uniform swing from 2012.

The finalized version. the closest states are South Carolina (D), Missouri (R), Utah (R), Indiana (R), Kansas (D) and Texas (R). Clinton wins about 1000 counties, improving on Obama 2012 in every state except for New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Delaware. Clinton wins the national popular vote by 12.3% and wins the most votes in U.S history (roughly 75.2 Million). The final breakdown is roughly:

Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 50% Popular Vote ~ 438 Electoral Votes
Donald Trump/Mike Pence 38% Popular Vote ~ 100 Electoral Votes
Gary Johnson/William Weld 10% Popular Vote ~ 0 Electoral Votes
All Others (Green, Constitution, Prohibition, Mountain, etc) 2% Popular Vote ~ 0 Electoral Votes

 

[history nerd]

View attachment 327846
Third Party Presidential Elections, in all elections where there were third parties.

I've done these maps before and got some very different results in some areas. What happened in 08 for instance?

 

[prime-minister]

Alternate 2017 UK Election held on same day as local elections

The election on the 4th May 2017 effectively marked the beginning of a period of Conservative dominance in British politics stretching into the foreseeable future. The party claimed 401 seats, 46% of the national popular vote (the highest for any government since 1970) and a majority of 152, the largest for a Conservative government since 1935 (and the largest for a Conservative government governing alone since 1924).
Labour, meanwhile, crashed to just 180 seats, their worst result since 1935, with 30% of the popular vote, zero improvement on Ed Miliband's embarrassing performance 2 years prior, whilst the Tories won 18 seats in Scotland (their highest tally there since 1979) and Labour were reduced to 18 seats (only 1 ahead of the Tories) in Wales.
The specific results proved even more humiliating for the opposition parties; for the first time in the county's history, the Tories won every seat in Cumbria (unseating Lib Dem leader Tim Farron in the process), and Labour lost several seats which had been loyal to them for close to a century or longer, such as Bassetlaw, Bishop Auckland, Chesterfield, Dagenham, Mansfield and most shockingly Bolsover, where Dennis Skinner was so shocked by his defeat he did not even speak at the count.

Before the last results were in, a miserable Jeremy Corbyn had resigned, and Labour had rapidly defended into even more vicious infighting, with supporters blaming his opponents for dragging the party down and critics claiming Corbyn's policies had butchered the party. Only one thing was certain: Theresa May's government would define Britain's future for decades to come.

(AKA what I expected the actual result to be, with the POD just being that she followed tradition and set the election to coincide with the local elections)

 

[Upvoteanthology]

Here's something, I guess.

 

[True Grit]

The finalized version. the closest states are South Carolina (D), Missouri (R), Utah (R), Indiana (R), Kansas (D) and Texas (R). Clinton wins about 1000 counties, improving on Obama 2012 in every state except for New York, New Jersey, Connecticut, and Delaware. Clinton wins the national popular vote by 12.3% and wins the most votes in U.S history (roughly 75.2 Million). The final breakdown is roughly:

Hillary Clinton/Tim Kaine 50% Popular Vote ~ 438 Electoral Votes
Donald Trump/Mike Pence 38% Popular Vote ~ 100 Electoral Votes
Gary Johnson/William Weld 10% Popular Vote ~ 0 Electoral Votes
All Others (Green, Constitution, Prohibition, Mountain, etc) 2% Popular Vote ~ 0 Electoral Votes

Clinton wins Kansas and South Carolina before Texas?

 

[shiftygiant]

Alternate 2017 UK Election held on same day as local elections

The election on the 4th May 2017 effectively marked the beginning of a period of Conservative dominance in British politics stretching into the foreseeable future. The party claimed 401 seats, 46% of the national popular vote (the highest for any government since 1970) and a majority of 152, the largest for a Conservative government since 1935 (and the largest for a Conservative government governing alone since 1924).
Labour, meanwhile, crashed to just 180 seats, their worst result since 1935, with 30% of the popular vote, zero improvement on Ed Miliband's embarrassing performance 2 years prior, whilst the Tories won 18 seats in Scotland (their highest tally there since 1979) and Labour were reduced to 18 seats (only 1 ahead of the Tories) in Wales.
The specific results proved even more humiliating for the opposition parties; for the first time in the county's history, the Tories won every seat in Cumbria (unseating Lib Dem leader Tim Farron in the process), and Labour lost several seats which had been loyal to them for close to a century or longer, such as Bassetlaw, Bishop Auckland, Chesterfield, Dagenham, Mansfield and most shockingly Bolsover, where Dennis Skinner was so shocked by his defeat he did not even speak at the count.

Before the last results were in, a miserable Jeremy Corbyn had resigned, and Labour had rapidly defended into even more vicious infighting, with supporters blaming his opponents for dragging the party down and critics claiming Corbyn's policies had butchered the party. Only one thing was certain: Theresa May's government would define Britain's future for decades to come.

(AKA what I expected the actual result to be, with the POD just being that she followed tradition and set the election to coincide with the local elections)

View attachment 330678

If it becomes a Tory landslide, I would assume that there would be a lot more orange on the map as tactical voters don't go to Labour as IOTL, smelling the blood in the water, and more Labour facing marginals flip (like Manchester Withington) or hold (Shefflied Hallam), as do other places (such as, for the sake of example, Portsmouth South) if the situation really is that dire.

The Tories leapfrogging in a few seats isn't impossible, but I would expect them to have lost a few as well along the way.

 

[Steve Brinson]

Here's something, I guess.

​

A liberal Texas? I approve.
(One question - why is South Texas conservative and Trans-Pecos liberal? I would think that the Rio Grande Valley would be one of the most solidly liberal areas, certainly outweighing the conservative Anglo areas, and I can't see the Trans-Pecos going anywhere to the left of it.)

 

[Upvoteanthology]

A liberal Texas? I approve.
(One question - why is South Texas conservative and Trans-Pecos liberal? I would think that the Rio Grande Valley would be one of the most solidly liberal areas, certainly outweighing the conservative Anglo areas, and I can't see the Trans-Pecos going anywhere to the left of it.)

Alright, I'll fix that. I don't really know much about Texas.

 

[Osk]

East Florida Gubernatorial Election - 1908 (Forgotten No More)

Round One
Billy Powell IV (Federalist) 28.79%
Andrew Jackson Pettigrew (Workers) 25.81%
Billy Powell IV (Native Caucus) 16.37%
William Goodall (Floridian American) 14.98%
William S. Jennings (Constitution) 14.05%

Round Two
Billy Powell IV (Federalist) 58.67%
Andrew Jackson Pettigrew (Workers) 41.33%

​

 

[Riley Uhr]

Kansas (D)

Press X to doubt

 

[Alex Richards]

If it becomes a Tory landslide, I would assume that there would be a lot more orange on the map as tactical voters don't go to Labour as IOTL, smelling the blood in the water, and more Labour facing marginals flip (like Manchester Withington) or hold (Shefflied Hallam), as do other places (such as, for the sake of example, Portsmouth South) if the situation really is that dire.

The Tories leapfrogging in a few seats isn't impossible, but I would expect them to have lost a few as well along the way.

Also, looking at the council results there's still a decent chance that Norman Lamb holds on and even that Oxford West and Abingdon still goes Lib Dem- both were nominal victories on the OTL local election results and in the latter case we'd probably see some of the campaigning in other parts of Oxfordshire dialled down to focus all efforts on the constituency and divisions in OXWAB.

 

[shiftygiant]

Also, looking at the council results there's still a decent chance that Norman Lamb holds on and even that Oxford West and Abingdon still goes Lib Dem- both were nominal victories on the OTL local election results and in the latter case we'd probably see some of the campaigning in other parts of Oxfordshire dialled down to focus all efforts on the constituency and divisions in OXWAB.

If I'm wrong, do correct me, but there was also quite a strong LibDem vote in Westmoreland- whilst I don't know what that would look like on a constituency level, I would have assumed it would translate to a hold.

 

[Alex Richards]

If I'm wrong, do correct me, but there was also quite a strong LibDem vote in Westmoreland- whilst I don't know what that would look like on a constituency level, I would have assumed it would translate to a hold.

I think it would have translated to a hold yes, but things depend rather on the campaign.

I mean if we're in the situation of 'Corbyn's utterly plummeting towards rock bottom and it's turning into 'desperately trying to stop the Tories' then those 2,000 odd extra Labour voters compared to 2015 (some Lib Dems I presume?) may well shift to backing Tim to try and save the seat. Ditto for Richmond Park.

It's the sort of situation where 'Yeah Tim's a bit crap but have you seen Jezza?' could come to the fore.

Because really I think this situation requires that Jezza's campaign goes utterly, utterly awful.

 

[Tex Arkana]

Clinton wins Kansas and South Carolina before Texas?

Yes, because this is based on polls and Five Thirty Eight's forecasts, polls around that time showed that South Carolina and Kansas were closer than Texas.

 

[prime-minister]

If it becomes a Tory landslide, I would assume that there would be a lot more orange on the map as tactical voters don't go to Labour as IOTL, smelling the blood in the water, and more Labour facing marginals flip (like Manchester Withington) or hold (Shefflied Hallam), as do other places (such as, for the sake of example, Portsmouth South) if the situation really is that dire.

The Tories leapfrogging in a few seats isn't impossible, but I would expect them to have lost a few as well along the way.

I was partly going on the last poll before the local elections, which is where the 46 Tory- 30 Labour figure comes from. Throughout the campaign, the polls indicated far fewer people jumping from Labour to Lib Dem than from Labour to Tory, which is what my results reflect.

 

[shiftygiant]

I was partly going on the last poll before the local elections, which is where the 46 Tory- 30 Labour figure comes from. Throughout the campaign, the polls indicated far fewer people jumping from Labour to Lib Dem than from Labour to Tory, which is what my results reflect.

When you write poll, did you use a seating model from before the local elections that was predicting the GE seats, or did you put the polling numbers into the EC? Because whilst I will say that the EC is fine for the broad scope of the two parties, when it comes to third parties it gets very dodgy due to the nature of the model, which presumes a uniform swing. Fine for the two parties, but again for the minor parties it becomes problematic.

And which campaign- local or GE? Because I would argue that less people voted tactically for the LibDems in the latter because of the relative strength of the Labour campaign to the weakness of the Conservative and Liberal campaigns to the power of the increasingly reductive nature of the 'narrative' that began to form in the last few weeks. Whilst far fewer people jumped to the LibDems in the end, and polls showed this through the campaign, at the same time if Labour is campaigning badly enough they remained static to 2015 whilst the Tories go from strength to Strength, then it would imply that there has been a much weaker campaign on Labour's part and Labour was unable to get the showings in the seats they won and the narrative that we saw IoTL would be related more to the weakness of Labour in the face of the Tories, which would result in a larger tactical vote due to the perception of Labour's weakness but a fear of wanting to "keep the Tories out". You would be seeing more yellow from Labour facing marginals that were 'in game' until the final week, such as those lost in 2015 that went to Labour and were held by Labour this election, or were leapfrogged by the strong Labour showings in 2017 (as well as Nick and Greg keeping their seats).

 

[Riley Uhr]

and most shockingly Bolsover, where Dennis Skinner was so shocked by his defeat he did not even speak at the count.

That Makes me Physically Uncomfterable

 

[AltFuture]

2016

Joe Manchin (D-WV) / John Bel Edwards (D-LA) - 405 EV (~55% PV)
Donald Trump (R-NY) / Chris Christie (R-NJ) - 133 EV (~43% PV)

(In this world Trump more liberal on social issues)

 

[Reagent]

Made this for Atlas:
(@DPKdebator you might find this of interest)

 

[Tex Arkana]

2016

Joe Manchin (D-WV) / John Bel Edwards (D-LA) - 405 EV (~55% PV)
Donald Trump (R-NY) / Chris Christie (R-NJ) - 133 EV (~43% PV)
View attachment 330975

(In this world Trump more liberal on social issues)

I'm curious, does the Democratic ticket win the South in the way that traditional Democrats like Carter or Bill Clinton did, running up the score in rural areas + the Black Belt, or does the ticket take more of an Obama approach, running up the score in populous counties + the Black Belt?