Alternate Electoral Maps II

[Comrade Izaac]

Kind Of Where I see the United States going over the next couple of decades; Well, at least one of the ways it could go:

2020:

​

Fmr. Vice President Joesph R. "Joe" Biden (D-DE)/Senator Kyrsten Synmea (D-AZ)-68,903,788 PV (303 EV)
President Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Micheal R. "Mike" Pence (R-ID)-60,102,490 PV (233 EV)
Comedian Jimmy Dore (G-CA)/Activist Margret Flowers (G-MD)-1,013,456 PV (0 EV)
Other Scattered Third Parties and Independents-956,478 PV (0 EV)
​

2024:

​

President Joseph R. "Joe" Biden (D-DE)/Vice President Kyrsten Synmea (D-AZ)-67,304,102 PV
Senator Cory Gardner (R-CO)/Fmr. U.N Ambassador Nikki Haley (R-SC)-64,920,344 PV
Richmond Mayor Gayle McLaughlin (G-CA)/State Sen. Anita Stewart (G-FL)-1,504,921 PV
Other Scattered Third Parties and Independents-1,054,224 PV
​

2028:

Governor Adam Anderzejowski (R-IL)/Senator Timothy "Tim" Scott (R-SC)-70,882,603 PV
Vice President Kyrsten Synmea (D-AZ)/Governor Andrew Gillum (D-FL)-65,029,203 PV
State Sen. Anita Stewart (G/S-FL)/Milwaukee Mayor Angela Nicole Walker (G/S-WI)-1,620,238 PV
Other Scattered Third Parties and Independents-890,440,230 PV
​

2032:

President Adam Anderzejowski (R-IL)/Vice President Timothy "Tim" Scott (R-SC)-71,234,660 PV
Governor Coleman Young II (D-MI)/Governor John Bel Edwards (D-LA)-66,976,380 PV
Other Scattered Third Parties and Independents-1,903,290 PV
​

2036:

Senator Jamie Herrera-Butler (R-WA)/Governor Leah Vukmir (R-WI)-72,876,999 PV
Governor Jason Carter (D-GA)/Majority Speaker Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)-70,019,224 PV
Representative Elijah Manley (G-FL)/Activist Kyle Kulinski (G-NY)-2,109,890 PV
Fmr. Representative Zoltan Istavan (IV-CA)/Activist Arvin Vorha (IV-MD)-1,980,209 PV
Other Scattered Third Parties and Independents-540,902,600 PV
​

2040:

Governor Jumaane Williams (D-NY)/Senator Miranda Powers-Morell (D-SC)-75,402,459 PV
President Jamie Herrera Butler (R-WA)/Governor Leah Vukmir (R-WI)-71,276,220 PV
Other Scattered Third Parties and Independents-2,098,877 PV

​

 

[nofynofie]

Kind Of Where I see the United States going over the next couple of decades; Well, at least one of the ways it could go:

2020:

View attachment 410298​

Fmr. Vice President Joesph R. "Joe" Biden (D-DE)/Senator Kyrsten Synmea (D-AZ)-68,903,788 PV (303 EV)
President Donald J. Trump (R-NY)/Vice President Micheal R. "Mike" Pence (R-ID)-60,102,490 PV (233 EV)
Comedian Jimmy Dore (G-CA)/Activist Margret Flowers (G-MD)-1,013,456 PV (0 EV)
Other Scattered Third Parties and Independents-956,478 PV (0 EV)​

2024:

View attachment 410299 ​

President Joseph R. "Joe" Biden (D-DE)/Vice President Kyrsten Synmea (D-AZ)-67,304,102 PV
Senator Cory Gardner (R-CO)/Fmr. U.N Ambassador Nikki Haley (R-SC)-64,920,344 PV
Richmond Mayor Gayle McLaughlin (G-CA)/State Sen. Anita Stewart (G-FL)-1,504,921 PV
Other Scattered Third Parties and Independents-1,054,224 PV ​

2028:

View attachment 410303​

Governor Adam Anderzejowski (R-IL)/Senator Timothy "Tim" Scott (R-SC)-70,882,603 PV
Vice President Kyrsten Synmea (D-AZ)/Governor Andrew Gillum (D-FL)-65,029,203 PV
State Sen. Anita Stewart (G/S-FL)/Milwaukee Mayor Angela Nicole Walker (G/S-WI)-1,620,238 PV
Other Scattered Third Parties and Independents-890,440,230 PV​

2032:

View attachment 410305​

President Adam Anderzejowski (R-IL)/Vice President Timothy "Tim" Scott (R-SC)-71,234,660 PV
Governor Coleman Young II (D-MI)/Governor John Bel Edwards (D-LA)-66,976,380 PV
Other Scattered Third Parties and Independents-1,903,290 PV​

2036:

View attachment 410306​

Senator Jamie Herrera-Butler (R-WA)/Governor Leah Vukmir (R-WI)-72,876,999 PV
Governor Jason Carter (D-GA)/Majority Speaker Alexandria Ocasio-Cortez (D-NY)-70,019,224 PV
Representative Elijah Manley (G-FL)/Activist Kyle Kulinski (G-NY)-2,109,890 PV
Fmr. Representative Zoltan Istavan (IV-CA)/Activist Arvin Vorha (IV-MD)-1,980,209 PV
Other Scattered Third Parties and Independents-540,902,600 PV​

2040:

View attachment 410310​

Governor Jumaane Williams (D-NY)/Senator Miranda Powers-Morell (D-SC)-75,402,459 PV
President Jamie Herrera Butler (R-WA)/Governor Leah Vukmir (R-WI)-71,276,220 PV
Other Scattered Third Parties and Independents-2,098,877 PV

​

I like your maps, but I have a few issues.

Firstly, why Washington? The Rust belt and Maine will certainly become safe red much before Washington becomes even competitive.
Also, I think that states like Arizona and Nevada will be safe blue until 2030s. And I can't see states like KY, UT and SC going red.

I agree about Georgia, North Carolina and Mississippi. Growing black population will make these states likely/safe blue.

 

[nofynofie]

This is what the electoral map will look like in 2030/40s IMO (competitive).

*I know, numbers will change until then, but that's not the point

 

[Comrade Izaac]

Firstly, why Washington?

Washington went red solely because of the popularity of Jamie Herrera-Butler, who had managed to oust Senator Maria Cantwell in 2022, one of the Democrats few, but major losses that year. Herrera-Butler had subsequently put together a strong voting coalition comprised of Middle Class Whites in Seattle, urban Hispanics (a group that is increasingly voting with the new, moderate-on-immigration Republican Party), and young moderate-Republicans, who have allowed her to keep her seat since. When Senator Herrera-Butler ran for President, she retained this coalition, narrowally carrying the state, and this has since put Washington in the "lean" Republican column.

The Rust belt and Maine will certainly become safe red much before Washington becomes even competitive.

The Rust Belt, for the most part, is safe red. This is with the exception of Wisconsin and Michigan, who remain swing states due to a revived trade union movement. Maine, meanwhile, is still firmly in the hands of the Democrats. This is for a couple reasons, but the main one is the emergence of the so-called "Farmer-Labor" Movement, a coalition of rural, primarily white Progressives who stand opposed to the large agricultural robber-barrons that have been putting many independent farmers out of business through the creation of large automated drone-run farms; The FLM is strong all throughout the rural Midwest, Mid-Atlantic, and New England, but Maine in particular is a strong hold for the movement.

Also, I think that states like Arizona and Nevada will be safe blue until 2030s.

As I mentioned in relation to Washington, America's Hispanic population is slowly shifting rightwards as the years move on and the Republicans become far more liberal on the issue of immigration. This has allowed the Nevada and Arizona Republicans to make strong inroads among Hispanics in the South West, especially as many Democrats begin to shift towards a more... populist message on immigration.

And I can't see states like KY, UT and SC going red.

This, you are correct about, in my opinion. In TTL's 2040 election, South Carolina and Kentucky were within two-percent, with the Southern Republicans desperately clinging on for life in order to keep ahold of the last Conservative strongholds in Dixie; The Democrats are riding their tail, though, and by the next election South Carolina will go blue and Kentucky shouldn't be so far behind. Utah is a different story. The state is currently in the very awkward postion of being a deeply religious state in a country where the population of religious people (of all faiths, but Christian, Mormon, and Islamic faiths in particular) is dropping faster than a rock. For this reason, Utah's conservatives have been doing everything they possibly can to keep Utah a bastion of religious conservatism, and have turned Utah into a pusedo-legal theocracy with mormon values emphasised in almost every part of society the Republicans can manage.

I agree about Georgia, North Carolina and Mississippi. Growing black population will make these states likely/safe blue.

Indeed. Although, the growing African-American population isn't the primary reason for the South's new blue tint (though it certainly is a factor); That would be the ever increasing negative effects of climate change. Climate Change has become a major problem at this point, with the American government only recently taking drastic action as things have gotten apocalyptic. Coast lines are shrinking, streets are constantly flooding, and dangerous weather conditions are worsening. The world saw the first category seven Hurricane in 2026, Hurricane Micheal, which tore through the Southern coast, leaving a wake of destruction in it's path. In the Fourteen years since Hurricane Micheal, the effects of climate change have displaced hundreds of thousands, destroyed parts of the Southern economy, and left millions in debt from property and personal damage. Many Southerners blame the lukewarm efforts of former President Anderzejowski to combat climate change as the reason for the South's ruin and such, millions of poor, rural, and displaced Southerners (particularly whites and blacks) have gotten firmly on-board with the new Progressive Democratic platform in hopes that the economic and environmental polices of the Democrats will be able to revive the Southern economy and help the region resist against climate issues.

The African-American population spark is just the cherry on top of the Democratic sunday.

 

[Comrade Izaac]

The South's issue with climate change is also part of the reason why the Greens are doing so well, despite the left-wards shift of the Democratic Party. The Greens' only two national legislators, Representative Daisy Miles and Lt. Governor Tris Baxter, are both from Florida, while the Greens have dozens of seats in the state legislatures of Florida, Mississippi, Georgia, Alabama, and Louisiana.

 

[Tex Arkana]

This is what the electoral map will look like in 2030/40s IMO (competitive).
View attachment 410333

*I know, numbers will change until then, but that's not the point

I think the problem with most of these future predictions is that they take current trends and extrapolate them into infinity, despite the fact that literally anything could happen between now and the 2040s. For one, I don't think the GOP can continue to go down a Trumpist route for too much longer considering the US will be majority-minority by 2045 and college educated whites are slowly becoming more and more Democratic. And that makes taking current trends and extrapolating them that far pretty useless, as I think both parties will have changed pretty significantly by that time barring some unforeseen circumstances.

 

[Keeganc2020]

[
i believe republicans could very well become a white entho nationalist male dominated reactionary party centered on cultural values ... and it can keep winning by Gerrymandering, suppressing the votes of democratic leaning groups and continuing an alliance with the Right Wing doneer class.

 

[leecannon_]

Miranda Powers-Morell

Do you mean Many Powers-Norell, and if so, yes please

 

[leecannon_]

SC going red.

If by that you mean becoming more democratic I could. SC is growing quick with a large minority and outsider population like Arizona. I could see SC becoming a lot less safe in the future

 

[Bad Company]

[
i believe republicans could very well become a white entho nationalist male dominated reactionary party centered on cultural values ... and it can keep winning by Gerrymandering, suppressing the votes of democratic leaning groups and continuing an alliance with the Right Wing doneer class.

This argument would be perfect if there was never any generational or demographic change, if coalitions remained completely static, and if the groups in question just decided to do nothing about it.

Of course, such arguments ignore all such factors, and thus have little merit.

 

[Keeganc2020]

[/QUOTE]
I’m well aware of the demographic shifts , but a lot depends on how white hispanics, English speaking Non Spanish speaking , and 2,3 etc generation hispanics idenifity as white or as part of a “ unified “ class of people of color. Also I don’t think republicans will have to pivote toward the center untill at lest the 2040’s, they might have trouble winning the popular vote but the EC will be in play for decades and the Senate will tilit conservative and white for decades as will the house ... so our electoral map might just be frozen which highly regional parties only instead of a north south dynamic you have an east west coast one with Illinois thrown in and a comparative south west and south East. Or really both the rust belt and sun belt could remain comparative but grow increasingly in elastic... the whole nation could become like Florida very competitive but always very close but with parts going predictably one way or the other.

 

[Tex Arkana]

This argument would be perfect if there was never any generational or demographic change, if coalitions remained completely static, and if the groups in question just decided to do nothing about it.

Of course, such arguments ignore all such factors, and thus have little merit.

Exactly this. Predicting election results that far out is pretty silly to begin with. Imagine telling someone in the 80s that in an election in the near future, the Republican would win West Virginia with nearly 70% of the vote and the Democrat would win California by 30%. A whole hell of a lot can happen between now and the 2040s, we shouldn't be surprised if by that point Utah is Safe D and Vermont is Safe R. Also, the idea that an openly white nationalist party can ever win elections, especially in a future where the US is more diverse and well educated than ever, is absurd. If the GOP did start nominating open white nationalists they'd certainly get blown out in states like Texas and Florida, and without those two states they would have absolutely no path to victory regardless of how other states change by then. I personally believe that in the future, if it wants to be a competitive national party, the GOP will have to drop the racial rhetoric and become socially moderate-to-liberal while being economically conservative, but more in the mold of David Cameron than US Libertarians.

 

[nofynofie]

I personally believe that in the future, if it wants to be a competitive national party, the GOP will have to drop the racial rhetoric and become socially moderate-to-liberal while being economically conservative, but more in the mold of David Cameron than US Libertarians.

They should appeal more to Hispanics as they are the most conservative minority. Whites + Hispanics could ensure them victory. That way, they could still be a conservative party and stay competitive.

In that case, the map would look like this:

But I agree with you that we can't know what will happen.

 

[Tex Arkana]

They should appeal more to Hispanics as they are the most conservative minority. Whites + Hispanics could ensure them victory. That way, they could still be a conservative party and stay competitive.

In that case, the map would look like this:


View attachment 410505

But I agree with you that we can't know what will happen.

If the GOP really wanted to win over Hispanics, they could become socially conservative and fiscally liberal... But the donor class would never let that happen.

 

[Oryxslayer]

That feeling when people try to calculate future electoral coalitions without calcing future electoral votes.

 

[nofynofie]

But the donor class would never let that happen.

The US politics summarized in one sentence.

Anyway, more liberal immigration policy would also help. But yeah, you are right, they should become economically at least moderate if they want to win Hispanics.

 

[DPKdebator]

That feeling when people try to calculate future electoral coalitions without calcing future electoral votes.

I think that would be even harder to predict than the electoral map. There's an endless amount of factors at play here... if you went back to 1996 and told someone that Virginia would become a lean Democratic state after liberal northerners flood the metro Washington area, they'd look at you funny.

 

[Tex Arkana]

You guess the context. It's a 2020 scenario and it's not a primary result.

2024

President Tex Arkana (I/D-VA)/Vice President Stacey Abrams (I/D-GA) 60% popular vote, 487 electoral votes
Senator Tom Cotton (R-AR)/Governor Pete Ricketts (R-NE) 50 electoral votes, 37% popular vote
Unpledged Democratic 1 electoral vote, 2% popular vote

*The modern Democratic Party was reduced to minor party status due to the personal popularity of Independent President Tex Arkana, as such the two merged into the Independent Democratic Party of America.

 

[Keeganc2020]

Components of the modern Democratic Primary

Tan states “ beer track” populist white majority left liberal

Purple states “ wine Track” establishment, diverse Moderate to far left

Green states overwhelmingly black, conservative to far left.

Blue States King makers battle ground.

 

[leecannon_]

View attachment 410583 Components of the modern Democratic Primary

Tan states “ beer track” populist white majority left liberal

Purple states “ wine Track” establishment, diverse Moderate to far left

Green states overwhelmingly black, conservative to far left.

Blue States King makers battle ground.

I would put Illinois into the Blue as it has elements of all three types of voters, like New York