Alternate Electoral Maps II

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I'm going to guess Manchin takes Oregon while Baker very narrowly takes Missouri and Ohio and thus the Presidency.
 
(I know this bears a resemblance to Baker vs Manchin and countless other similar scenarios, so apologies in advance for my lack of originality)

This is what I think the electoral map would look like in a realignment where the Republicans become socially liberal/fiscally conservative while the Democrats become socially conservative/fiscally liberal. This map represents a close race.


genusmap.php
 
My 2018 Gubernatorial Predictions:


genusmap.php



Safe Republican:

Alabama, Arkansas, Texas, Nebraska, Wyoming, Massachusetts, Vermont

Likely Republican:

Tennessee, South Carolina, Idaho, South Dakota, New Hampshire, Maryland

Lean Republican:

Kansas, Arizona, Ohio, Iowa, Alaska

Safe Democrat:

California, Illinois, New York, Pennsylvania, Hawaii

Likely Democrat:

New Mexico, Colorado, Oregon, Minnesota, Michigan, Rhode Island, Connecticut

Lean Democrat:

Maine, Georgia, Florida, Oklahoma, Wisconsin, Nevada
 
The New York Times just put out this piece analysing how counties are connected to eachother by looking at facebook friendships, coming up with some interesting info about how state boundaries and historical migrations still show up in Americans' social networks. There's an interesting feature where you can hover over a county and see which other counties are most connected to it, revealing some interesting dyamics in certain regions.
They also made some maps dividing the US into different regions with maximum social connectivity, so I used the Redraw website to see how their 50-state map would have voted.

Here's the map from the NYT:
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Here's what I made in Redraw:
2018-09-20 (5).png
2018-09-20 (4).png


The closest states:
AppalachiMaryPeake - 8 EVs - 47.8% Trump; 47.6% Clinton - 0.2% difference (4,723 voters)
Michigan - 16 EVs - 47.6% Trump; 47.3% Clinton - 0.3% difference (15,037 voters) - the tipping-point state
Wisconsin - 11 EVs - 47.1% Trump; 47.6% Clinton - 0.5% difference
Most-of-Georgia - 13 EVs - 48.8% Trump; 48.0% Clinton - 0.8% difference
Minnesota - 10 EVs - 45.3% Trump; 46.9% Clinton - 1.6% difference
New Mexizona - 15 EVs - 45.4% Trump; 47.9% Clinton - 2.5% difference
Upstate New York - 10 EVs - 49.3% Trump; 45.2% Clinton - 4.2% difference

The most Republican states:
Nebraska-Panhandle-and-a-bit-of-Colorado - 3 EVs - 75% Trump; 19.5% Clinton - 55.5% difference
Cumberland Gap - 5 EVs - 71.9% Trump; 24.0% Clinton - 47.9% difference
Deep Southern Appalachia - 3 EVs - 72.5% Trump; 24.8% Clinton - 47.7% difference
Wyoming - 3 EVs - 69.2% Trump; 23.3% Clinton - 45.9% difference
North Dakota - 3 EVs - 68.7% Trump; 23.8% Clinton - 44.9% difference
West Virginia - 4 EVs - 68.9% Trump; 26.4% Clinton - 42.6% difference

The most Democratic states:
Downstate New York - 20 EVs - 31.3% Trump; 65.9% Clinton - 34.7% difference
Hawaii - 4 EVs - 30.0% Trump; 62.2% Clinton - 32.2% difference
NoCal - 26 EVs - 31.9% Trump; 62.1% Clinton - 30.2% difference
SoCal - 26 EVs - 32.8% Trump; 61.9% Clinton - 29.0% difference
Virginia - 17 EVs - 37.3% Trump; 58.0% Clinton - 20.7% difference
New Jersey-Philadelphia - 21 EVs - 28.3% Trump; 58.5% Clinton - 20.2% difference
 
The New York Times just put out this piece analysing how counties are connected to eachother by looking at facebook friendships, coming up with some interesting info about how state boundaries and historical migrations still show up in Americans' social networks. There's an interesting feature where you can hover over a county and see which other counties are most connected to it, revealing some interesting dyamics in certain regions.
They also made some maps dividing the US into different regions with maximum social connectivity, so I used the Redraw website to see how their 50-state map would have voted.
Are the 3 missing electoral votes due to Nebraska/Maine or due to Washington DC disappearing?

If the second, readd DC, and get 5,000 more Baltimoreans to vote and it shifts to Hillary.
 
I'm surprised that Fairfield County, CT, isn't part of New York in this scenario.
I'm pretty shocked in general at the strength of state borders. It looks like Fairfield County's connections to the rest of Connecticut, and Connecticut's connections to Rhode Island and Western Mass. outweigh Fairfield's unexpectedly weak connections to New York City. Perhaps it has something to do with Fairfield being mostly commuters who work in the city but don't really build social ties there?

Are the 3 missing electoral votes due to Nebraska/Maine or due to Washington DC disappearing?

If the second, readd DC, and get 5,000 more Baltimoreans to vote and it shifts to Hillary.
Yeah, I deleted DC because I wanted it to be an exact copy of the initial map.
More people might vote in the new swing states like Maryland and Upstate New York, and Maryland would probably flip because of that, leaving a 2 EV gap... the exact number of faithless electors who defected from Trump OTL.
 
The New York Times just put out this piece analysing how counties are connected to eachother by looking at facebook friendships, coming up with some interesting info about how state boundaries and historical migrations still show up in Americans' social networks. There's an interesting feature where you can hover over a county and see which other counties are most connected to it, revealing some interesting dyamics in certain regions.
They also made some maps dividing the US into different regions with maximum social connectivity, so I used the Redraw website to see how their 50-state map would have voted.

Here's the map from the NYT:


Here's what I made in Redraw:

The closest states:
AppalachiMaryPeake - 8 EVs - 47.8% Trump; 47.6% Clinton - 0.2% difference (4,723 voters)

The most Democratic states:
Virginia - 17 EVs - 37.3% Trump; 58.0% Clinton - 20.7% difference
Wow... take out the DC suburbs from Maryland and the whole state turns red. That’s crazy. Also I like how in the Deep South, the state’s are basically the state lines, but in California there’s like four different states joining others states and so on just kinda interesting. Cool idea!
 
Wow... take out the DC suburbs from Maryland and the whole state turns red. That’s crazy. Also I like how in the Deep South, the state’s are basically the state lines, but in California there’s like four different states joining others states and so on just kinda interesting. Cool idea!
That's unclear to me. Given both the addition of Delaware and pieces of West Virginia, I'm not sure on the balance which way it goes. And I agree with the original poster. If this area is part of a swing state, there would likely be a lot of voters in Baltimore that would actually show up. There are significant parts of Maryland, particularly the city of Baltimore that had no close races on the ballot in 2016.
 
On October 28, 1819, an election was held in Alabama to elect two Upper Courtiers. Four candidates ran for election, but only two (dedicated Yorkists Walker and King) got enough traction to have any chance at victory. Unaffiliated candidate Crabb did fairly well, placing second in three northern counties, while Yorkist candidate Phillips only broke 7% of the vote in Autauga County. There was no vote held in Mobile due to Florida happening to be there at the time, nor was there any in Marengo due to the courthouse being occupied.

John W. Walker (Yorkist) - 48.08%
William R. King (Yorkist) - 39.33%

Thomas D. Crabb - 8.98%
George W. Phillips (Yorkist) - 3.61%

1819.png
 
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