Alternate Electoral Maps II

[Calthrina950]

I may have asked this before, but how does Leach win TX, UT, ND, SD, MT, etc before VA?

Do you mean how does Rutherford win those states before VA? Keep in mind that of the states where Leach wins the white vote, all but Alabama and Mississippi are still carried by Rutherford, due to minority voters (Hispanics and Native Americans in the West, Hispanics in Florida, African-Americans throughout the South).

 

[killertahu22]

Do you mean how does Rutherford win those states before VA? Keep in mind that of the states where Leach wins the white vote, all but Alabama and Mississippi are still carried by Rutherford, due to minority voters (Hispanics and Native Americans in the West, Hispanics in Florida, African-Americans throughout the South).

Yeah, I meant Rutherford my bad.

 

[Tex Arkana]

Well, I don't think it is that simple.

The shift of West Virginia from Blue to Red was not just about cultural values. It was partly because of the Dems shift toward neoliberal centrism.

Robert Byrd kept getting re-elected because he was always trying to get money for his state, but the national Democratic Party proved unresponsive toward the problems facing the people of West Virginia.

Trump's election was because he was the only candidate who talked about the problems facing the state: the coal mining industry collapsing, and their jobs going overseas. Hillary and the rest of the Democratic Party really abandoned the working class and took it for granted, in favor of identity politics.

Ojeda isn't some coastal elite, but a man who, truly grasps the problems that face the people in Appalachia. If he were to run, he could rightly point out how the GOP has done little as well, and how coal is still vanishing.

If he chooses his message to be about the economy and the struggles of working Americans, he could easily win back West Virginia.

I'm not an expert, but in my opinion, there are only two real reasons that West Virginia has become so Republican - coal and social issues. If it was because of Democrats going down a "neoliberal" route, then surely Bill Clinton wouldn't have won the state by 15% in 1996. I believe the reason Gore lost the state in 2000 is because he was seen as anti-coal by a lot of West Virginians, although there were still enough diehard Democrats in the state to keep it fairly competitive for Gore. Then we get to the "Coastal Elitism" of John Kerry in 2004 and he loses it by double digits, in 2008 I think Obama had two issues that caused him to do very slightly worse than Kerry in the state - the same appearance of being a "Coastal Elite" to rural voters, and also, unfortunately, his race. And then in 2012 Romney of course went with the line that Obama was waging a "war on coal" and that year Obama became the first Democrat in history not to win a single county in West Virginia in a Presidential election. Then in 2016 Hillary only made matters worse with her gaffe about putting coal miners out of business in addition to her (perceived) elitism and running as Obama's third term, which is why Trump won the state by a larger margin than even Abraham Lincoln or LBJ did. Overall, at the Presidential level, I think we'd have to see a populist who also happens to be socially moderate vs. a centrist Republican like Phil Scott or Larry Hogan for West Virginia to go Democratic for President anytime soon, and that would require a realignment.

 

[MorganKingsley]

Nader in 2000?

I will catch up until 1900, then Nader. I will look into which candidates meet this case in the pre 1900 years, seeing as there are some of those after that

 

[Calthrina950]

Yeah, I meant Rutherford my bad.

I think you did ask the question before, and I responded that the partisan leans of these states are different in this timeline. UT, ND, and SD are Likely Republican, but can give way in landslides, such as this one. TX is a tossup to Lean Democratic state (and in this scenario, goes Democratic in a landslide), while MT is a Tossup to Tilt Democratic state. Virginia is a Lean Republican state, like it was prior to 2008.

 

[Bookmark1995]

I'm not an expert, but in my opinion, there are only two real reasons that West Virginia has become so Republican - coal and social issues. If it was because of Democrats going down a "neoliberal" route, then surely Bill Clinton wouldn't have won the state by 15% in 1996. I believe the reason Gore lost the state in 2000 is because he was seen as anti-coal by a lot of West Virginians, although there were still enough diehard Democrats in the state to keep it fairly competitive for Gore. Then we get to the "Coastal Elitism" of John Kerry in 2004 and he loses it by double digits, in 2008 I think Obama had two issues that caused him to do very slightly worse than Kerry in the state - the same appearance of being a "Coastal Elite" to rural voters, and also, unfortunately, his race. And then in 2012 Romney of course went with the line that Obama was waging a "war on coal" and that year Obama became the first Democrat in history not to win a single county in West Virginia in a Presidential election. Then in 2016 Hillary only made matters worse with her gaffe about putting coal miners out of business in addition to her (perceived) elitism and running as Obama's third term, which is why Trump won the state by a larger margin than even Abraham Lincoln or LBJ did. Overall, at the Presidential level, I think we'd have to see a populist who also happens to be socially moderate vs. a centrist Republican like Phil Scott or Larry Hogan for West Virginia to go Democratic for President anytime soon, and that would require a realignment.

You make a good point.

Simply put, the twin issues of coal and culture gradually pushed West Virginians away.

But still, things could change dramatically if Trump's own administration goes belly up.

 

[Tex Arkana]

You make a good point.

Simply put, the twin issues of coal and culture gradually pushed West Virginians away.

But still, things could change dramatically if Trump's own administration goes belly up.

I don't think West Virginia is in any danger of flipping in 2020 unless Trump's approval ratings are Mary Fallin-level, but it should swing D at least a little in 2020 unless the Democrats really nominate a godawful candidate. With Trump off the ballot I'd expect it to go from R+42 to more like R+25-30 in a close election.

 

[Bookmark1995]

I don't think West Virginia is in any danger of flipping in 2020 unless Trump's approval ratings are Mary Fallin-level, but it should swing D at least a little in 2020 unless the Democrats really nominate a godawful candidate. With Trump off the ballot I'd expect it to go from R+42 to more like R+25-30 in a close election.

No. It would only flip IF a West Virginian got on the ballot.

 

[MorganKingsley]

1916 if Wilson won his home state of New Jersey

Woodrow Wilson - 476 electoral votes / 55.2 percent popular vote
Charles Huges - 55 electoral votes / 40.1 percent popular vote

 

[MorganKingsley]

1912 if Taft won his home state of Ohio

Woodrow Wilson - 276 electoral votes / 34.09 percent popular vote
William Taft - 180 electoral votes / 30.67 percent popular vote
Theodore Roosevelt - 75 electoral votes / 27.4 percent popular vote
Eugene Debs - 0 electoral votes / 6 percent popular vote

 

[MorganKingsley]

1912 if Roosevelt won his home state of New York

Theodore Roosevelt - 306 electoral votes / 36.4 percent popular vote
Woodrow Wilson - 221 electoral votes / 32.84 percent
William Taft - 4 electoral votes / 23.17 percent popular vote
Eugene Debs - 0 electoral votes / 6 percent popular vote

I was honestly expecting that victory to be way bigger. Even in a Roosevelt victory, Wilson still gives it a good run for their money. If Wilson won New York in this case, Wilson would have won the election regardless of the popular vote. That is how close it actually is in this case

 

[MorganKingsley]

1904 if Parker won his home state of New York

Theodore Roosevelt - 275 electoral votes / 50.42 percent popular vote
Alton Parker - 201 electoral votes / 43.59 percent popular vote

Despite losing the election, Parker is considered to put up one hell of a fight despite impossible odds and some thought for a early couple hours on election night that he might be able to pull off an upset after all.

 

[MorganKingsley]

1900 if Bryan had won his home state of Nebraska

William McKinley - 281 electoral votes / 49.89 percent popular vote
William Jennings Bryan - 166 electoral votes / 47.27 percent popular vote.

 

[MorganKingsley]

1892 if Harrison won his home state of Indiana

Grover Cleveland - 247 electoral votes / 45.37 percent popular vote
Benjamin Harrison - 174 electoral votes / 43.66 percent popular vote
James Weaver - 23 electoral votes / 8.51 percent popular vote

 

[MorganKingsley]

1880 if Hancock won his home state of Pennsylvania

Winfield Hancock - 244 electoral votes / 50.5 percent popular vote
James Garfield - 125 electoral votes / 46.02 percent popular vote

 

[MorganKingsley]

1872 if Greeley won his home state of New York

Ulysses S Grant - 205 electoral votes / 52.1 percent popular vote
Horace Greeley - 147 electoral votes / 47.3 percent popular vote

 

[Mumby]

I think for completeness's sake, Debs wins Indiana is needed.

 

[Wendell]

With Reagan a such a presence, everybody forgets that Winfield Scott Hancock's corpse also ran in 1980.

 

[Gian]

Need some other hints:

 

[Tex Arkana]

Need some other hints:

Well, since it appears that Rubio is winning the black vote, I'm going to again assume this is from a timeline where a Republican President passes civil rights legislation in the 60's and the Dixiecrat backlash has a lasting effect on the Democratic Party.