AHQ: Maximum power and size of the following countries

[John7755 يوحنا]

The question; what would be the maximum and feasible size and power of the following countries with a POD in 1860. What exactly would be the criterion fro each to achieve these powers.

-Brazil

-Argentina

-Bolivia

-Paraguay

-Chile

-Uruguay

-Peru

In essence, how many different balances of power can we achieve in the central and southern sections of South America.

 

[Analytical Engine]

Bolivia would need to either avoid or win the War of the Pacific, in order to keep its coastline, and not lose Acre. Also, they could control all of the disputed area with Paraguay.

Peru could potentially gain more of Ecuador than it did IOTL.

Brazil's borders with Colombia and Venezuela could be delineated more favourably towards it.

Argentina or Chile could secure more of Patagonia than they did IOTL, at the expense of the other.

Chile might have ended up taking a small piece of Peru's coast during the War of the Pacific if they were luckier.

Uruguay might be able to capitalise on instability in Brazil and/or Argentina, particularly if bits fall off either.

Argentina and/or Brazil could gain more territory from Paraguay than IOTL.

As to power, well, that depends on a lot of things.

If you maintain political and economic stability, any of those countries could be more powerful compared to OTL. Especially Argentina and Brazil.

Possibly the alliance between Peru and Bolivia could be maintained.

 

[Lenwe]

Paraguay If Avoid the War of the Triple Alliance, that is pretty easy to do, all thinks considered. Could probably maintain and all their claims in Argentina and Brasil, To know in Argentina Province of Formosa and Province of Misiones, and in Brasil the south of Matto Grosso do sul, with the river Blanco and Ivenhema as frontier.

Uruguay with a Lot, a lot, of Luck could support the Republica Riograndesa in their independence war, and get some form of Custom Union, but that one is really unlikely

Chile could not Lose their Claim over la Patagonia, if Argentina don´t threat with war during the Pacific War, or more likely, Chile recognize that the Argentinean Threat were as simple bluff as Argentina was still during their civil war period, and don´t have enough soldiers to Launch a campaign against Chile Without the risk of a General Mapuche Revolt, or more likely, can´t fight a general insurrection like the one that happened in Buenos Aires Revolt of 1880

Peru-Bolivia could be maintained

Bolivia could not lose so many wars

 

[John7755 يوحنا]

Paraguay If Avoid the War of the Triple Alliance, that is pretty easy to do, all thinks considered. Could probably maintain and all their claims in Argentina and Brasil, To know in Argentina Province of Formosa and Province of Misiones, and in Brasil the south of Matto Grosso do sul, with the river Blanco and Ivenhema as frontier.

Uruguay with a Lot, a lot, of Luck could support the Republica Riograndesa in their independence war, and get some form of Custom Union, but that one is really unlikely

Chile could not Lose their Claim over la Patagonia, if Argentina don´t threat with war during the Pacific War, or more likely, Chile recognize that the Argentinean Threat were as simple bluff as Argentina was still during their civil war period, and don´t have enough soldiers to Launch a campaign against Chile Without the risk of a General Mapuche Revolt, or more likely, can´t fight a general insurrection like the one that happened in Buenos Aires Revolt of 1880

Peru-Bolivia could be maintained

Bolivia could not lose so many wars

How would Paraguay be able to take land from Brazil whenever Argentina could threaten them from the south?

 

[GauchoBadger]

How would Paraguay be able to take land from Brazil whenever Argentina could threaten them from the south?

Transportation of Brazilian and Argentine armies was always poor during the Paraguayan War. Roads through which the armies could march were scarce, and, in their place, there was a lot of forest. There were few waterways Brazil could use to transport its armies towards Paraguay. Brown water navies were crucial in this war -- once Paraguay lost its own (mainly at the Battle of Riachuelo), it lost the initiative, but was still capable of waging some very effective defensive guerrilla warfare for six years on end.

 

[Lenwe]

How would Paraguay be able to take land from Brazil whenever Argentina could threaten them from the south?

They don't, they just don't lose it, before The war of the Triple alliance that land were de Facto Paraguayan, as neither Brasil or Argentina have people living there. After The war, Paraguay ended so decimated, that 10 years later when Argentina and Brasil colonized those Lands they we're unhinabited. (1879 for Argentina, 1870 for Brasil)

 

[Arkenfolm]

After 1860, Uruguay probably can't grow much in size (outside of those small territorial disputes with Brazil being settled in its favour), but it can certainly grow in power. If the later parts of the Argentine Civil Wars are worse than OTL, and Uruguay can end its own civil war much earlier than OTL, then you might have a base for making Uruguay more powerful (Montevideo would be much more important TTL for instance). I think a Uruguay with twice the population (which would make it about as densely populated as the US--6-8 million people) and a slightly higher GDP per capita (perhaps comparable to Southern Europe--25-30,000) is feasible. So that's a GDP of 150-240 billion today, which at the higher end would put Uruguay in the top 50 largest economies globally, between Egypt and Finland. If the same proportion of Uruguay's population lives in Greater Montevideo (it might spread out a bit more TTL), then Greater Montevideo would be in the top thirty largest metropolitan areas in the Americas with about 4.5 million people, which would likely attract even more development than the city has OTL.

They don't, they just don't lose it, before The war of the Triple alliance that land were de Facto Paraguayan, as neither Brasil or Argentina have people living there. After The war, Paraguay ended so decimated, that 10 years later when Argentina and Brasil colonized those Lands they we're unhinabited. (1879 for Argentina, 1870 for Brasil)

Wasn't that land claimed by both countries in question anyway? Even if Paraguay comes out with bigger borders than OTL, how are they going to get the entirety of their claims? Are they really going to start a war over some extra land for cattle and yerba mate?

 

[Lenwe]

Wasn't that land claimed by both countries in question anyway? Even if Paraguay comes out with bigger borders than OTL, how are they going to get the entirety of their claims? Are they really going to start a war over some extra land for cattle and yerba mate?

Of course they Will start a war over yerba mate they áre Paraguayan.
And Is not some extra land for cattle Is prime land for cattle, one of The best land for cattle in Brazil. And the position of the land Is strategically located near The Gran pantanal(think The Louisiana bajou) so could control Good part of the región sweet water sources.
And they don't need to maintian it all, only more than OTL

 

[Wendell]

I don't think you get a maximum Peru or Bolivia without unifying them.

 

[David II]

Make Chile keeping Tacna and maybe up to Arequipa, also keeping Patagonia or at least a great percentage of it. You could also make Chile going west and taking some other islands of the Pacific, but it'll need to keep France and the UK to stay away for a while to give Chile some time before those two powers come to the lake

 

[Lenwe]

For a Bigger Bolivia, well that is easy, ley them win a war, as far as I know they never win a war.

Independence war, they Lost it against The liberations armies of Bolívar, La plata and Chile, as Bolivia was firmly royalist.

War of the Confederation, they Lost againts Chile and Peruvian independentist

War of Perú- Bolivia, ended in a draw

War of Acre, they Lost against Brazil.

War Hispano-sudamericana technically they won, but they were co-beligerants and don't fight Any battle.

War of the Pacific, they Lost against Chile, again.

War of the Chaco, they Lost against Paraguay.
Make them don't be such a chew hoy and You gonna end With a bigger stronger Bolivia, Is dificult make them more weak

 

[Marc]

An amusing thought:
It's quite arguable that only by the happenstance of history (rather than geopolitical destiny) that many, most, of Latin America's nations exist in their current configuration at all - that is, that there aren't say at least twice as many countries in existence.
Argentina is an elegant example of that, it almost, quite rationally, became two separate states: The Province of Buenos Aires, and the rest of the country.

 

[Lenwe]

An amusing thought:
It's quite arguable that only by the happenstance of history (rather than geopolitical destiny) that many, most, of Latin America's nations exist in their current configuration at all - that is to say, that there aren't say at least twice as many countries in existence.
Argentina is an elegant example of that, it almost, quite rationally, became two separate states: The Province of Buenos Aires, and the rest of the country.

That is true, in fact The only countries I don't know how to break, Made smaller or bigger yes, break No, Is Chile,Paraguay Uruguay and Ecuador, all The other áre easily breakeable, Argentina in four Countries easy, Bolivia in two, Perú in two or three, Brazil in four to eigth, Colombia in two or three, Venezuela in two or three.
The thing that is lacking to do this Is people.

 

[Wendell]

That is true, in fact The only countries I don't know how to break, Made smaller or bigger yes, break No, Is Chile,Paraguay Uruguay and Ecuador, all The other áre easily breakeable, Argentina in four Countries easy, Bolivia in two, Perú in two or three, Brazil in four to eigth, Colombia in two or three, Venezuela in two or three.
The thing that is lacking to do this Is people.

Why isn't Chile really divisible?

 

[Lenwe]

Why isn't Chile really divisible?

Because I don´t know how, the distance between the sea and the mountain is at most 200 km.
in the north have a few, easily controlable, cultivable valleys because only there are water.
In the south after Santiago , the land open in a central Valley Between the Andes and the Coast mountain range, that is not easily defensible, and constrained between said mountain ranges
You could break the Country geographically around the valley of Santiago, but as Santiago was, and is, the center economic, political, cultural and the most populated region of the country a good case could be made that Chile as we know today is the result of Santiago doing a colonization of the rest of the country. So my point that I could make it Bigger or Smaller, but I don´t know how to break the country

 

[Diego]

That is true, in fact The only countries I don't know how to break, Made smaller or bigger yes, break No, Is Chile,Paraguay Uruguay and Ecuador, all The other áre easily breakeable, Argentina in four Countries easy, Bolivia in two, Perú in two or three, Brazil in four to eigth, Colombia in two or three, Venezuela in two or three.
The thing that is lacking to do this Is people.

I would agree with you if the divergence was before 1830, but after 1860 I think that it is harder to divide those countries, or at least divide them so many times.

 

[Lenwe]

I would agree with you if the divergence was before 1830, but after 1860 I think that it is harder to divide those countries, or at least divide them so many times.

Well You could, The European divided and create a lot of countries after The WW1, but to do it, You need more people living in those parts, and the underpopulation of the continent continúes until today
.

 

[The Avenger]

The question; what would be the maximum and feasible size and power of the following countries with a POD in 1860. What exactly would be the criterion fro each to achieve these powers.

-Brazil

-Argentina

-Bolivia

-Paraguay

-Chile

-Uruguay

-Peru

In essence, how many different balances of power can we achieve in the central and southern sections of South America.

Argentina could get the Gran Chaco region if President Hayes--or, in an alt-TL, President Tilden--decides that its claim to this territory is stronger than that of Paraguay.

 

[Lenwe]

Argentina could get the Gran Chaco region if President Hayes--or, in an alt-TL, President Tilden--decides that its claim to this territory is stronger than that of Paraguay.

But in that case, this mean a war between Argentina and Bolivia No?

 

[The Avenger]

But in that case, this mean a war between Argentina and Bolivia No?

Possibly. I don't see Bolivia winning due to its much smaller population, though.