AHC: No War of 1812 (and have DeWitt Clinton Win the Election of 1812)

[korea]

Pretty much as the title says. IOTL the War of 1812 had a good chance of being averted since the British had already decided to remove their trade restrictions, but the news arrived too late. Your primary challenge is to avoid the War of 1812, and your secondary challenge is to make DeWitt Clinton President in the 1812 election (a close election IOTL; the flip of Pennsylvania would have given the victory to Clinton).

 

[TRH]

Unfortunately I think the war going badly was the only reason Clinton was remotely competitive in 1812 IOTL. Otherwise, the general electoral weakness of the Federalists was too much to overcome.

 

[korea]

Unfortunately I think the war going badly was the only reason Clinton was remotely competitive in 1812 IOTL. Otherwise, the general electoral weakness of the Federalists was too much to overcome.

I'm thinking of writing a timeline in which the war of 1812 never happens (or it happens anyway but it results in Madison becoming less popular) and Clinton becomes President. What would be the most realistic, practical way of accomplishing this?

 

[TRH]

I'm thinking of writing a timeline in which the war of 1812 never happens (or it happens anyway but it results in Madison becoming less popular) and Clinton becomes President. What would be the most realistic, practical way of accomplishing this?

I think Madison needs to die. Then Clinton could have a chance at carrying the Democratic nomination in 1812 since VP George Clinton was old and on death’s door himself. But otherwise, the wall is too steep. While it’s true that Clinton could have won IOTL by carrying PA, he lost the state by over 15 points despite Madison being extremely unpopular. You’re not overcoming that, not when Madison had so little good news to campaign on already.

Likewise, there were a lot of delegates absent from the caucus that nominated the DR presidential candidate. But the majority were still there and unanimously chose Madison. Some elections are closer than they seem. 1812 wasn’t one of them.