AHC: Japan GDP surpass America GDP

[General Tirpitz]

I think one issue I have been lately pondering related to discussion like these is the assumption that the US represents some sort of gold standard of economic development when it comes GDP per capita measures. This means that when we think some country having 2x or 3x of America's per capita GDP, the discussion very easily assumes that it's almost impossible. The US certainly has lots of advantages which make it easier for it to maintain its position as the top of global economy than it would be some other country but I am just wondering if that assumption is made to easily. In this particular WI, we are talking about 76 years of Japanese and American economic history and I don't think it is that difficult to come up with events or decisions which might have hurt the US while benefitting Japan, with the benefit of hindsight we have. This has led me to take somewhat a controversial stance that it is probably possibly to create a non-unrealistic scenario, even if not like one, where Japan reaches the US GDP and is able to maintain its edge for few years.

Apple goes bankrupt in 1997 and Japan becomes the new Silicon Valley. In the 90s, Japan was considered a high-tech innovator, but subsequently fell behind the US. For example, in the 2000s, Japan was producing cell phones that were very advanced, but generally only sold to a domestic market. Perhaps without Apple, they may be tempted to enter the global market.

Speaking of hindsight, this is one of those issues. Although Nippon Telephone was privatized in 1985 to increase compatition in telecom markets, the Ministry of Post (maybe out of inertia) continued to defend its position in Japanese markets. This in part contributed to higher prices in communication technologies (like internet and cell phone plans) and very likely stiffled innovation there during the 1990's.

 

[Workable Goblin]

I think one issue I have been lately pondering related to discussion like these is the assumption that the US represents some sort of gold standard of economic development when it comes GDP per capita measures. This means that when we think some country having 2x or 3x of America's per capita GDP, the discussion very easily assumes that it's almost impossible.

Well, it's certainly very difficult. The only countries that get anywhere close to that IOTL are much smaller than the United States and have some kind of special reason for their prosperity, usually being petro-states or, in the case of Luxembourg and Singapore, city-states without a hinterland to drag per-capita GDP numbers down. Even then, Luxembourg only has about twice the per-capita GDP of the United States by IMF numbers. So it's very difficult to see how a large country like Japan could possibly have two or three times the U.S. GDP without much, much deeper changes than just tinkering with post-WWII growth figures. Like, if the United States falls into a cycle of civil war, military coups, and sluggish development in the 19th century, without ever expanding past its 1783 boundaries, that could do it, but then you're mostly ruining the United States instead of boosting Japan.

 

[General Tirpitz]

Well, it's certainly very difficult. The only countries that get anywhere close to that IOTL are much smaller than the United States and have some kind of special reason for their prosperity, usually being petro-states or, in the case of Luxembourg and Singapore, city-states without a hinterland to drag per-capita GDP numbers down. Even then, Luxembourg only has about twice the per-capita GDP of the United States by IMF numbers. So it's very difficult to see how a large country like Japan could possibly have two or three times the U.S. GDP without much, much deeper changes than just tinkering with post-WWII growth figures. Like, if the United States falls into a cycle of civil war, military coups, and sluggish development in the 19th century, without ever expanding past its 1783 boundaries, that could do it, but then you're mostly ruining the United States instead of boosting Japan.

That's certainly true. I should note that although this is something I have been pondering lately, I agree with you. It's more about meta thinking about what sort of assumptions we make about economic development in ATLs and not necessarily just about this particular WI, even if I have been often also thinking it too.