AHC: Developed China

[EmperorBuaya]

Another of Alternate History Challenges of mine.

This time the challenge is to make a Post-1900 China developed into a First-World country, comparing to level of Japan, South Korea, Singapore or OTL Taiwan. It can be under the Qing Dynasty, Republic of China or even People's Republic of China.

 

[RousseauX]

Another of Alternate History Challenges of mine.

This time the challenge is to make a Post-1900 China developed into a First-World country, comparing to level of Japan, South Korea, Singapore or OTL Taiwan. It can be under the Qing Dynasty, Republic of China or even People's Republic of China.

major
Chinese cities and some coastal provinces are either there or close to there. Otl

 

[Abdominalz]

major
Chinese cities and some coastal provinces are either there or close to there. Otl

I agree, as a Brit living in Nanjing who had just been on a day trip to Suzhou Chinese cities in Jiangsu province are not that far behind Europe at all.

In fact, everything's so much more modern with everybody paying with their phones (using this app called WeChat) than in the west and the amount of new build skyscrapers is just insane. The High Speed trains are also so much better than in Europe.

However people's incomes are most definitely not first world yet, and the cost of living is so much lower. There are also many grungy old appartement blocks which dominate the city. Having said that, China is coming on very fast.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

See also
Superpower Empire: China by @Hendryk

 

[Gwachiko]

The obvious POD is to kill Mao in early 1950s thus you avoid The Great Leap Forward, the famines as well as the Cultural Revolution.

 

[PhilippeO]

why does everybody hate Mao ? without Mao's Cultural Revolution there might be no modern China.

it very difficult for society to jump for 'feudal' to 'modern' because existence of 'landlord class' who control economy and government. monopoly of wealth (usually land) and political asset (vote and government jobs) need to broken up to enable raise of healthy middle class and industrial progress. sometime it needed to be extremely violent and bloody.

Japan (WWII and America occupation), SK (Korean war and military dictatorship), Taiwan (massive immigration of mainlander and terror of Chiang rule), Singapore (eviction and war with Malaysia)and most Europe (Napoleon, 1844, WW) achieve it through national trauma and bloodshed too. and there indication that Mao is more thorough with his revolution, destroying old class. Enabling modern Chinese to rise 'rags to riches' with more empty opportunity above.

I am not endorsing massive scale class war, purge and massacres for economic progress. But to acknowledge modern China success without its historical past is unrealistic.

Note : America had lot of free land that enable to give people Capital without big societal violence (and even here it took Civil War to restridibute wealth, which slave is to planter class). and Scandinavia does appear to be exception.

 

[Nagisaki]

Mao's Cultural Revolution there might be no modern China.

It wasn't a revolution. It was a campaign on mass chaos and destruction of Chinese culture, in addition to being just Mao flexing his muscles. Remove Mao from the picture and allow China to open up early, and it would be much more prosperous today.

 

[samcster94]

It wasn't a revolution. It was a campaign on mass chaos and destruction of Chinese culture, in addition to being just Mao flexing his muscles. Remove Mao from the picture and allow China to open up early, and it would be much more prosperous today.

Deng was the real heir. He was a smarter man and removed much of what Mao did by economically reforming China.

 

[PhilippeO]

It wasn't a revolution. It was a campaign on mass chaos and destruction of Chinese culture, in addition to being just Mao flexing his muscles. Remove Mao from the picture and allow China to open up early, and it would be much more prosperous today.

.

But it eradicate most of landlord and elite class. without it opened up China might be too tightly controlled by olygarchy and local potentate like Indonesia, Philippines or Brazil. making Deng opening up failed, and turn into bureaucratic morass and corruption that foreign company can't enter.

Mao, in addition to his obviously evil actions, was also just horribly incompetent. He apparently wanted to outdo the U.S. and the USSR economically.

.

He is competent in 'breaking up past society'. His success enable his successor to rebuild society from ground up. A lot of country had founding father who only achievement was destroying old order (colonialist, monarchy, etc) and turn up horrible at build things. But second generation still need old order to be overthrown before they can build something new.

Meiji need Boshin War. Post war boom 50s need WWII. Japan miracle need WWII. etc.

 

[samcster94]

.

But it eradicate most of landlord and elite class. without it opened up China might be too tightly controlled by olygarchy and local potentate like Indonesia, Philippines or Brazil. making Deng opening up failed, and turn into bureaucratic morass and corruption that foreign company can't enter.

.

He is competent in 'breaking up past society'. His success enable his successor to rebuild society from ground up. A lot of country had founding father who only achievement was destroying old order (colonialist, monarchy, etc) and turn up horrible at build things. But second generation still need old order to be overthrown before they can build something new.

Meiji need Boshin War. Post war boom 50s need WWII. Japan miracle need WWII. etc.

Yeah, he did unify China from Chaos and helped kick the Japanese out, but his economic plans lead to millions dead and little actual growth. Also, he actually wasn't even in power half the time. Sometimes it was his wife and at other times it was other people(especially after the Great Leap Forward failed).

 

[Pyramus]

I agree, as a Brit living in Nanjing who had just been on a day trip to Suzhou Chinese cities in Jiangsu province are not that far behind Europe at all.

In fact, everything's so much more modern with everybody paying with their phones (using this app called WeChat) than in the west and the amount of new build skyscrapers is just insane. The High Speed trains are also so much better than in Europe.

However people's incomes are most definitely not first world yet, and the cost of living is so much lower. There are also many grungy old appartement blocks which dominate the city. Having said that, China is coming on very fast.

Rember though, for every shiny metropolis on the coast, there's a thousand hamlets inland where the standered of living is comparable to Sub-Saharan Africa. The development of China is extremely asymmetric.

 

[IntellectuallyHonestRhino]

I agree, as a Brit living in Nanjing who had just been on a day trip to Suzhou Chinese cities in Jiangsu province are not that far behind Europe at all.

In fact, everything's so much more modern with everybody paying with their phones (using this app called WeChat) than in the west and the amount of new build skyscrapers is just insane. The High Speed trains are also so much better than in Europe.

However people's incomes are most definitely not first world yet, and the cost of living is so much lower. There are also many grungy old appartement blocks which dominate the city. Having said that, China is coming on very fast.

Parts of China. Some provinces are becoming Switzerland and some are like Ghana.

 

[RousseauX]

The problem I think with the idea of a non-Communist China being same as South Korea or Taiwan is that neither has a big interior to develop

The population of Jiangsu province alone is basically South Korea+ Taiwan put together and has a gdp per capita of $27,000 in real terms which is almost identitical to SK (also around $27,000) today. So insofar you are talking about places which look geographically like Taiwan or Korea (coastal), it's already developed up to their standard OTL.

Would a non-Communist government really do all that much for a poor, underdeveloped interior away from major river trans portion? I'm not so sure.

It's entirely possible a capitalist China from 1949 would end up looking a lot like today's China: rich, first world coastal provinces along with second/third world interior provinces.

E: holy crap great map I found

 

[David T]

why does everybody hate Mao ? without Mao's Cultural Revolution there might be no modern China.

The PRC's economic growth in the first seven years of the 1950's was phenomenal. Granted, some of this represented recovery from years of foreign and civil war , and the rates of growth probably could not be sustained. But I still think the PRC would have grown a lot more rapidly without the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution.

 

[PhilippeO]

in my opinion, without Mao's war on intellectual and landlord, local landlord is likely to reestablish their dominance in local politics (even under communist government) and eventually strangle growth with local corruption and limiting poor advancement and entrepreneurship. making China more similar to Indonesia and Philippines rather than Taiwan and SK.

certainly that could be wrong assessment (on Mao's contribution in destroying landlord and on landlord effect in subsequent economic growth). But I think that's best explanations for why East Asia is more economically successful than South East Asia.

 

[Nagisaki]

But I still think the PRC would have grown a lot more rapidly without the Great Leap Backward and the Cultural Revolution.

ftfy

 

[Kalga]

The PRC's economic growth in the first seven years of the 1950's was phenomenal. Granted, some of this represented recovery from years of foreign and civil war , and the rates of growth probably could not be sustained. But I still think the PRC would have grown a lot more rapidly without the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution.

Also don't forget the flood of Soviet aid, which of course stopped with the Sino-Soviet Split of 1960...

 

[samcster94]

The PRC's economic growth in the first seven years of the 1950's was phenomenal. Granted, some of this represented recovery from years of foreign and civil war , and the rates of growth probably could not be sustained. But I still think the PRC would have grown a lot more rapidly without the Great Leap Forward and the Cultural Revolution.

Exactly. Mao had delusions of grandeur and he also was obsessed with Qin Shi Huang, the first emperor of the short lived Qin dynasty(this was the guy who built the Terra Cotta Army for his tomb).

 

[CalBear]

in my opinion, without Mao's war on intellectual and landlord, local landlord is likely to reestablish their dominance in local politics (even under communist government) and eventually strangle growth with local corruption and limiting poor advancement and entrepreneurship. making China more similar to Indonesia and Philippines rather than Taiwan and SK.

certainly that could be wrong assessment (on Mao's contribution in destroying landlord and on landlord effect in subsequent economic growth). But I think that's best explanations for why East Asia is more economically successful than South East Asia.

Wow.

Don't support purges in Post # 6 (a post that was wobbler on the kick/ban threshold) and then you post this jewel.

2.5 MILLION people were tortured and executed for no reason except being who the were, and this is just the tip of the spear.

I have 45 million reasons to Ban you. Pick one.

We divorce you.

To Coventry with you.

 

[samcster94]

Wow.

Don't support purges in Post # 6 (a post that was wobbler on the kick/ban threshold) and then you post this jewel.

2.5 MILLION people were tortured and executed for no reason except being who the were, and this is just the tip of the spear.

I have 45 million reasons to Ban you. Pick one.

We divorce you.

To Coventry with you.

Defending Mao is just a terrible idea. Don't even get started on why, as he was so obviously evil.