RLVs part 1
Archibald
Banned
TWO COMPANIES TAKE RADICALLY DIFFERENT APPROACHES TO LAUNCHER REUSABILITY
Two companies actively working on reusable launch vehicles recently described their strategies, with one starting in small increments of reusability and the other beginning with a fully formed - if untested - spaceplane. Both companies - Boeing and Martin Marietta - said the goal is to reduce launch costs by developing reusable hardware. U.S. and European government officials said they remain believers, if not currently big investors, in the two systems but stressed that the past 20 years of rocket history is littered with designs and flight vehicles — including the U.S. space shuttle — that never met the economic promise of reusable systems. George Mueller the former NASA deputy associate administrator for exploration systems development, whose background includes work on both shuttles, said reusability presents more engineering and physics challenges than anyone expects. Mueller also stressed the importance of economic considerations. He said the Space Shuttle program likely would not have survived the changed expectations in the commercial launch market in any event. The vehicle was developed, then scrapped, in the early 1970s at a time of what proved to be wildly optimistic projections of commercial launch demand.
Martin Marietta strategy with Gaia is a rather simple, low risk approach. Starts from plain old expendable (ELV) Titan tooling; use proven XLR-105 (the Atlas sustainer) H-1 and later F-1 engines, always on the same growth pattern – one, then five, then nine. If reusability is needed down the line, then go for the brute force approach: stretch the core by the amount of fuel it takes to hover and land vertically likes a helicopter. And yes, superboosters are planned over the long term, perhaps with a methane variant of the F-1A to support Mars missions. What matters as of today is to takeover the ELV market from Ariane, Delta, Atlas, eventually with reusability to lower cost further.
Mueller recalled an earlier joint effort to reuse large rocket boosters - namely, for the long forgotten space shuttle.
“The reusable first stages at the start of our studies were just cylinders with engines and little wings,” Mueller said. “Three years later, they had become complete 747s in terms of size, with four engines on each of them. Our main problem was the impact reusability has on the design of the launcher. Safety factors have to be higher, and you need around 30 percent more propellant in the first stage to fly the stage back to the launch site.”
Mueller said NASA concluded that a reusable first stage could save about 10 percent in costs for a fully expendable rocket if the reusable vehicle flew 50 times per year and the engines could be used nine times on the rocket’s boosters before being used a 10th time as an expendable engine on the rocket’s second stage.
“Then we would save 10 percent — plus or minus 15 percent,” Mueller said. “We have more to learn.”
Robert Zubrin, Martin Marietta vice president for commercial sales and business development, said Martin is proceeding in small steps by adding legs to the first stage of the company’s currently expendable Titan II to test maneuvering, while continuing parallel testing through the company’s Grasshopper program. Grasshopper will be evolving into the Gaia program, aimed at developing a partially reusable Titan boosters. Martin Marietta told its customers that the company’s commercial Titan launch prices, already considered low when compared with other launch service providers, should drop further once the first stage is made reusable. Zubrin said it is too soon to estimate how many flights per year would be required of the Titan II with a reusable first stage to generate the savings Martin Marietta hopes to realize.
Zubrin is rapidly climbing echelons of Martin Marietta hierarchy, although he handwave away any ambitions.
"I'm anything but a good manager or leader. I have the wrong character for that, plus my heart is on Mars, not on Earth. I'd rather have my hand on Viking or Titan engineering rather than making a large amount of money as CEO."
Yet there is no doubt that Zubrin ebullient character is shaking out Martin Marietta creativity. The company is no longer one of those "lumbering aerospace giants" space cadets loath so much. Zubrin discussed some rough numbers.
"In order to get the price per pound low enough to start seeing serious demand elasticity and profitability, most analyses say you need ~50flts/yr/airframe. But in order to have a robust system, you need at least 3 airframes so that if one has a failure or needs to be taken down for an overhaul or serious repair, you can keep flying with the other two. Now you're up to needing 100-150 flights/yr3- But in order to have a robust industry, you really need 2-3 serious players, so that if any one of them has to ground their fleet for a while due to a serious problem, the industry goes on. Basically to get a robust RLV industry, you need demand in the ~300-500 flights per year range. Even just to get to a single-company with a semi-robust fleet, you need 100-150flts/yr. That's a lot. Existing markets won't do that and new markets take time to come online. And there are the technical questions of not just can you recover the vehicle and refly it at great expense, but can you a) do it with a short enough turnaround time to get to the 50flts/yr rate you need to make the economics work, b) can you reach that turn rate without sacrificing safety, and c) can you do that without requiring such a big standing army that the economics never close. I personally think all three of those are likely feasible, but can understand why reasonable people might disagree. I'm very confident that Martin Marietta will very well have the financial capacity to do a "build it and see if they come" with Gaia. In order to get to a high enough flight rate to enable a good industry with at least 2-3 good players, each with multiple vehicles, you're talking about needing several hundred flights per year. I don't think you're going to get there with F9R. At least we seems to have found a great approach to get into basic reusability starting from an expendable vehicle.
Boeing Orion, meanwhile, is a single-stage-to-orbit rocket designed to take payloads into low Earth orbit before returning to the same aircraft-type landing strip from where it took off. Orion project manager Andy Hepler said focusing on flight rate is only one way of solving the economics problems around reusable rockets. Boeing, he said, is coming at the market from another angle.
“People ask us: ‘With only 60-70 total launches per year, how can you justify spending admittedly much more than what is needed for a rocket like ELVIS — two or three times as much?’” Hepler said, referring to NASA-military’s proposed $5 billion future launcher now in design.
Hepler said Boeing proposes to adapt commercial airline industry practices, where Boeing obviously sell plans to multiple airlines that use the same airports. Under this model, he said, even nations whose governments would launch only once or twice a year might find it valuable to purchase an Orion and then share spaceport costs.
“It is much easier to buy a spaceplane for somewhere between $500 million and $1 billion than to develop your own system,” Hepler said. “If you can get sales of around 30 planes, then the business model closes and this can be developed using private funding. If there are fewer, then you are looking at some form of public-private partnership, and this is what we are going to talk to NASA about.”
Two companies actively working on reusable launch vehicles recently described their strategies, with one starting in small increments of reusability and the other beginning with a fully formed - if untested - spaceplane. Both companies - Boeing and Martin Marietta - said the goal is to reduce launch costs by developing reusable hardware. U.S. and European government officials said they remain believers, if not currently big investors, in the two systems but stressed that the past 20 years of rocket history is littered with designs and flight vehicles — including the U.S. space shuttle — that never met the economic promise of reusable systems. George Mueller the former NASA deputy associate administrator for exploration systems development, whose background includes work on both shuttles, said reusability presents more engineering and physics challenges than anyone expects. Mueller also stressed the importance of economic considerations. He said the Space Shuttle program likely would not have survived the changed expectations in the commercial launch market in any event. The vehicle was developed, then scrapped, in the early 1970s at a time of what proved to be wildly optimistic projections of commercial launch demand.
Martin Marietta strategy with Gaia is a rather simple, low risk approach. Starts from plain old expendable (ELV) Titan tooling; use proven XLR-105 (the Atlas sustainer) H-1 and later F-1 engines, always on the same growth pattern – one, then five, then nine. If reusability is needed down the line, then go for the brute force approach: stretch the core by the amount of fuel it takes to hover and land vertically likes a helicopter. And yes, superboosters are planned over the long term, perhaps with a methane variant of the F-1A to support Mars missions. What matters as of today is to takeover the ELV market from Ariane, Delta, Atlas, eventually with reusability to lower cost further.
Mueller recalled an earlier joint effort to reuse large rocket boosters - namely, for the long forgotten space shuttle.
“The reusable first stages at the start of our studies were just cylinders with engines and little wings,” Mueller said. “Three years later, they had become complete 747s in terms of size, with four engines on each of them. Our main problem was the impact reusability has on the design of the launcher. Safety factors have to be higher, and you need around 30 percent more propellant in the first stage to fly the stage back to the launch site.”
Mueller said NASA concluded that a reusable first stage could save about 10 percent in costs for a fully expendable rocket if the reusable vehicle flew 50 times per year and the engines could be used nine times on the rocket’s boosters before being used a 10th time as an expendable engine on the rocket’s second stage.
“Then we would save 10 percent — plus or minus 15 percent,” Mueller said. “We have more to learn.”
Robert Zubrin, Martin Marietta vice president for commercial sales and business development, said Martin is proceeding in small steps by adding legs to the first stage of the company’s currently expendable Titan II to test maneuvering, while continuing parallel testing through the company’s Grasshopper program. Grasshopper will be evolving into the Gaia program, aimed at developing a partially reusable Titan boosters. Martin Marietta told its customers that the company’s commercial Titan launch prices, already considered low when compared with other launch service providers, should drop further once the first stage is made reusable. Zubrin said it is too soon to estimate how many flights per year would be required of the Titan II with a reusable first stage to generate the savings Martin Marietta hopes to realize.
Zubrin is rapidly climbing echelons of Martin Marietta hierarchy, although he handwave away any ambitions.
"I'm anything but a good manager or leader. I have the wrong character for that, plus my heart is on Mars, not on Earth. I'd rather have my hand on Viking or Titan engineering rather than making a large amount of money as CEO."
Yet there is no doubt that Zubrin ebullient character is shaking out Martin Marietta creativity. The company is no longer one of those "lumbering aerospace giants" space cadets loath so much. Zubrin discussed some rough numbers.
"In order to get the price per pound low enough to start seeing serious demand elasticity and profitability, most analyses say you need ~50flts/yr/airframe. But in order to have a robust system, you need at least 3 airframes so that if one has a failure or needs to be taken down for an overhaul or serious repair, you can keep flying with the other two. Now you're up to needing 100-150 flights/yr3- But in order to have a robust industry, you really need 2-3 serious players, so that if any one of them has to ground their fleet for a while due to a serious problem, the industry goes on. Basically to get a robust RLV industry, you need demand in the ~300-500 flights per year range. Even just to get to a single-company with a semi-robust fleet, you need 100-150flts/yr. That's a lot. Existing markets won't do that and new markets take time to come online. And there are the technical questions of not just can you recover the vehicle and refly it at great expense, but can you a) do it with a short enough turnaround time to get to the 50flts/yr rate you need to make the economics work, b) can you reach that turn rate without sacrificing safety, and c) can you do that without requiring such a big standing army that the economics never close. I personally think all three of those are likely feasible, but can understand why reasonable people might disagree. I'm very confident that Martin Marietta will very well have the financial capacity to do a "build it and see if they come" with Gaia. In order to get to a high enough flight rate to enable a good industry with at least 2-3 good players, each with multiple vehicles, you're talking about needing several hundred flights per year. I don't think you're going to get there with F9R. At least we seems to have found a great approach to get into basic reusability starting from an expendable vehicle.
Boeing Orion, meanwhile, is a single-stage-to-orbit rocket designed to take payloads into low Earth orbit before returning to the same aircraft-type landing strip from where it took off. Orion project manager Andy Hepler said focusing on flight rate is only one way of solving the economics problems around reusable rockets. Boeing, he said, is coming at the market from another angle.
“People ask us: ‘With only 60-70 total launches per year, how can you justify spending admittedly much more than what is needed for a rocket like ELVIS — two or three times as much?’” Hepler said, referring to NASA-military’s proposed $5 billion future launcher now in design.
Hepler said Boeing proposes to adapt commercial airline industry practices, where Boeing obviously sell plans to multiple airlines that use the same airports. Under this model, he said, even nations whose governments would launch only once or twice a year might find it valuable to purchase an Orion and then share spaceport costs.
“It is much easier to buy a spaceplane for somewhere between $500 million and $1 billion than to develop your own system,” Hepler said. “If you can get sales of around 30 planes, then the business model closes and this can be developed using private funding. If there are fewer, then you are looking at some form of public-private partnership, and this is what we are going to talk to NASA about.”