Idk if Namibia was particularly interesting to the British tbh. East Africa was the one that they really wanted for their Cape to Cairo railway. Maybe, I could see UP getting a stripe of Namibia towards the North (Cause the South would doubtlessly be annexed by the Cape Colony) that wouldn’t be worth much in terms of land but he UP could use as a naval base to project influence in the Southern Atlantic.
Yeah, I'm picturing a small strip of land on the coast at best, with the south and interior of the colony predominantly under control of the Cape Colony. It'll lose importance very quickly as naval technology improves, but it is a prestige project and probably minor enough that the UP would be considered for it if they want it.
As for the US, I doubt they are that interested in all the far flung Pacific Islands. Their Western Coast is probably pretty sparsely populated given the lack of California Gold Rush, and they lack Hawaii, so I doubt they would consider the Pacific their zone of influence like OTL. They might want a few islands, but their aim here is not complete domination of the Pacific, so they don’t need all of them.
Right, butterflies from my own story lol. This is a fair point, but a similar thing holds true for the UP, since they have a very tenuous foothold on the Pacific as it is. You may see those far flung island colonies split between the French and the Japanese in that case, with maybe a few more going to Australia and New Zealand as well.
Btw, did the Spanish-American war happen here?
No, at least not in my notes; the incentives for the US don't line up quite the same way, and Cuba has other, closer, IMO better sources of support for its domestic independence movement. Cuba is an independent republic in the Colombian sphere, but with considerable American influence and investment in the island.
What I'm more conflicted on is the fate of the Philippines; it's practically guaranteed that Spain would lose control of it sooner than later even without the Spanish-American War. But without a Spanish-American War, there won't be a new colonial administration taking over for the Spanish. So would the Philippines become independent earlier?