PoD 1933-Kill FDR, avert Lend Lease.
1941-The Soviets destroy army group centre in 1941 outside Moscow (easily could have happened in OTL)
1943-Soviets roll all the way to the channel
1944-Soviets crush the rest of the axis and proceed to dominate the rest of Europe.
No Lend-Lease? Presumably American DoW vs. Germany either. Could the Soviets have performed anything like they did OTL without American trucks and other materiel, and Germany able to more or less ignore a starving Britain?
If America enters the war as OTL, wouldn't Britain and the USA simply launch Overlord earlier? Overlord was originally intended to be launched in '43 as Operation Roundup, which was itself an update of Operation Sledgehammer, a last-ditch invasion to be launched in '42 when it looked like the Germans might counterattack and finish off the Soviets (though in '42 there were legitimate concerns about whether they actually had the transports to pull it off).
There's also the consideration of what the Soviet Union could do with the Western European countries that had Allied-backed governments-in-exile. Surely Stalin would at the very least have to hand back control to the French, Belgian, and Dutch governments? It's also impossible for him to gain control over all of Europe (which I interpreted Tordenskjold to want) without attacking Spain or Portugal, the latter of which might well trigger a British DoW due to the Treaty of Windsor (assuming Stalin rolling his tanks through the Low Countries and France wouldn't produce the same effect).
A more minimalistic scenario would be: no American DoW but lend-lease to the Soviets and Britain. Britain is loaned transports and materiel to make a cross-channel invasion and successfully re-occupy France just as Berlin falls to the Red Army. De Gaulle returns to Europe. The Soviets are even worse shape than OTL (which wasn't anywhere near good enough to get into a slugging match in France) thanks to Germany throwing everything against them in the East, and agree that the Soviet sphere of influence ends at the Rhine. Stalin sets up Communism-friendly puppet governments across all of Eastern and Central Europe, with only the Czech and Polish governments-in-exile reinstated. A few years later, Stalin holds referendums on whether the Danish (Norwegian, surely?), German, and Austrian states wish to be integrated into the Union as SSRs.
