9,246 votes| A timeline with a lot of wikiboxes

[Gentleman Biaggi]

In the 1976 election incumbent Gerald Ford barley squeaked away with a victory. He only won Ohio and Hawaii by 9,246 votes combined. The Ford campaign celebrated their close victory and prepared for the next four years.

 

[Gentleman Biaggi]

In Ford’s first year inflation continued to rise. He was beginning to seem incompetent when it came to the economy. Because of this the Democrats made gains in congress as the Republicans had screwed up the economy in many people’s minds.

However the house was very different. The Democrats lost 15 seats to the Republicans. Luckily they still held a majority.

 

[Gentleman Biaggi]

Ronald Reagan had finally decided that he was not going to run in 1980. Yes, he had almost beaten Ford in the 1976 primaries and he knew that he could probably win the Republican primaries this time. But the Republican party was in bad shape. President Ford had become the face of the Energy Crisis, the Hostage Crisis, and a terrible economy. He knew the Republicans weren't being elected in 1980. So he stayed out of the race.

 

[Archibald]

Gerald Ford barley squeaked (Fromme)

 

[Deleted member 9338]

I wonder if the Hostage Crises will butterfly away?

 

[Gentleman Biaggi]

I wonder if the Hostage Crises will butterfly away?

I mentioned that as one of the reasons why Reagan didn't run.

 

[Gentleman Biaggi]

(Here are the 1980 presidential candidates)
Democrats:
Ted Kennedy
Jerry Brown
Gary Hart
Cliff Finch
Walter Mondale
Scoop Jackson
Edmund Muskie
Lyndon LaRouche
Republicans
George Bush
Bob Dole
Jack Kemp
Howard Baker
John B. Anderson

 

[Oppo]

Ted Kennedy
Jerry Brown
Gary Hart
Cliff Finch
Lyndon LaRouche

I'd think quite a few more people would run. Hugh Carey and Reuben Askew (@Yes intensifies) would be good choices. William Proxmire could be sort of the Democratic Ron Paul, and if you want a military guy, Daniel James Chappie would be a stellar candidate.

 

[Yes]

Hugh Carey and Reuben Askew (@Yes intensifies) would be good choices. William Proxmire could be sort of the Democratic Ron Paul, and if you want a military guy, Daniel James Chappie would be a stellar candidate.

Speak the magic words and he will appear... I really like your bringing up "Chappie" James, with just a few twists he could be a great out-of-the-box guy. I think Fritz Mondale runs (he's still HHH's heir even though he never quite filled The Hump's boots) because ITTL he's remembered as the good thing about Carter's campaign (much like Lloyd Bentsen after '88 IOTL.) It's possible that Scoop Jackson can't resist unless someone has already promised him the Pentagon in return for endorsement. Ed Muskie definitely, he was worn out with the Senate by 1980 and it's his last shot. It's quite possible Dick Lamm and Lloyd Bentsen dip their toes in. If somehow Carey doesn't run Brendan Byrne might jump in, but I see Carey running. Moonbeam Jerry you mentioned -- it's a little soon for Hart but he'd be happy to put himself forward for veep Frank Church, Birch Bayh (who was dealing with either a dead or dying wife by then, Marvella's breast cancer was too persistent for a decade to butterfly), and John Glenn were like Hart all busy trying to get reelected to the Senate that cycle. But one of them might decide to go for the big prize. On the Republican side I would definitely add John Connally -- if Bill Clements has still been busy in DC with Ford's second term, Connally may have taken his spot in the '78 TX gubernatorial (when the Texas Dems were in a civil war and sitting governor Dolph Briscoe got primaried from the left) and become the first Texas governor elected to represent two different parties. Nice spot from which to run given all his cash -- with Reagan out he would try to cut Bush out of the leading right-wing fundraisers in-state, they had a rivalry going back to the Sixties, and then try to Mitt Romney the field (outspend and out-"inevitable"). Phil Crane probably still makes his vanity run 'cause if there's one thing Crane has in spades it's vanity. There's even a chance there are some openings on the left in the GOP with Reagan out, more folks than just Anderson (John Chaffee? Lowell Weicker? Mac Mathias?) trying to revive the left of the party before it's ground under. And he's out of office but Jim Buckley might see where things take him. Likewise Reagan's best buddy in Congress, Senator Paul Laxalt who might be able to rally Reagan's team of advisers around him. Lots of great possibilities.

And @Oppo, if anybody can find me a site where you can make your own campaign stickers/buttons, imma print some Carey/Askew gear, it's going to be a thing...

 

[David T]

In the 1976 election incumbent Gerald Ford barley squeaked away with a victory. He only won Ohio and Hawaii by 9,246 votes combined. The Ford campaign celebrated their close victory and prepared for the next four years.

Nitpick: This assumes that the WA "faithless elector" who voted for Reagan in OTL would vote for Ford if his vote was necessary. This is very probable, but personally I would prefer OH and MS (rather than OH and HI) to remove any possibility he could be decisive. (It's also actually a little more likely, since Ford in OTL lost HI by 2.5 percentage points, but MS by only 1.9 http://psephos.adam-carr.net/countries/u/usa/pres/1976.txt) Admittedly, that has the disadvantage that the number of votes that have to be changed nationally goes all the way up to. . . 12,790!

 

[Gentleman Biaggi]

Speak the magic words and he will appear... I really like your bringing up "Chappie" James, with just a few twists he could be a great out-of-the-box guy. I think Fritz Mondale runs (he's still HHH's heir even though he never quite filled The Hump's boots) because ITTL he's remembered as the good thing about Carter's campaign (much like Lloyd Bentsen after '88 IOTL.) It's possible that Scoop Jackson can't resist unless someone has already promised him the Pentagon in return for endorsement. Ed Muskie definitely, he was worn out with the Senate by 1980 and it's his last shot. It's quite possible Dick Lamm and Lloyd Bentsen dip their toes in. If somehow Carey doesn't run Brendan Byrne might jump in, but I see Carey running. Moonbeam Jerry you mentioned -- it's a little soon for Hart but he'd be happy to put himself forward for veep Frank Church, Birch Bayh (who was dealing with either a dead or dying wife by then, Marvella's breast cancer was too persistent for a decade to butterfly), and John Glenn were like Hart all busy trying to get reelected to the Senate that cycle. But one of them might decide to go for the big prize. On the Republican side I would definitely add John Connally -- if Bill Clements has still been busy in DC with Ford's second term, Connally may have taken his spot in the '78 TX gubernatorial (when the Texas Dems were in a civil war and sitting governor Dolph Briscoe got primaried from the left) and become the first Texas governor elected to represent two different parties. Nice spot from which to run given all his cash -- with Reagan out he would try to cut Bush out of the leading right-wing fundraisers in-state, they had a rivalry going back to the Sixties, and then try to Mitt Romney the field (outspend and out-"inevitable"). Phil Crane probably still makes his vanity run 'cause if there's one thing Crane has in spades it's vanity. There's even a chance there are some openings on the left in the GOP with Reagan out, more folks than just Anderson (John Chaffee? Lowell Weicker? Mac Mathias?) trying to revive the left of the party before it's ground under. And he's out of office but Jim Buckley might see where things take him. Likewise Reagan's best buddy in Congress, Senator Paul Laxalt who might be able to rally Reagan's team of advisers around him. Lots of great possibilities.

And @Oppo, if anybody can find me a site where you can make your own campaign stickers/buttons, imma print some Carey/Askew gear, it's going to be a thing...

I actually was going to put Walter Mondale in the '80 primaries but I forgot and I'll put Muskie and Jackson in.

 

[Gentleman Biaggi]

Iowa Caucuses

In the polls Walter Mondale and George Bush were leading in Iowa. Mondale was winning because he was from a border state and Bush because he was emerging as the best option in the Republican field. However Bob Dole and Gary Hart had reportedly done some vigorous campaigning in Iowa...


Democrats
Walter Mondale: 30%

Edmund Muskie: 20%

Ted Kennedy: 18%

Scoop Jackson: 14%

Cliff Finch: 10%

Jerry Brown: 6%

Gary Hart: 3%

Lyndon Larouche: 1%


Republicans

Bob Dole: 26%

George Bush: 25%

Howard Baker: 20%

John B. Anderson: 19%

Jack Kemp: 10%


In a shocker Vice-President Dole barely beat Bush in Iowa. Bush’s campaign was shocked.

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

I don't think Muskie runs for President after the 1972 debacle.

I've read that Teddy Kennedy was not really that interested in becoming President, but was pushed into challenging Carter by the Democratic establishment.

Don't know if that is true, but he passed up obvious opportunities to run IOTL. Yeah, Chappaquiddick, but I've noticed that the people who kept bringing that up to me were all rock-ribbed Republicans, and it faded over time. Kennedy was expected to run and be one of the top two candidates in 1984, along with Mondale, for instance, and didn't.

 

[Gentleman Biaggi]

New Hampshire


After his failure in the Iowa Caucus Gary Hart dropped out. In the New Hampshire primaries Ted Kennedy and George Bush were in the lead in the polls.


Democrats

Ted Kennedy: 33%
Edmund Muskie: 28%

Scoop Jackson: 20%

Cliff Finch: 10%

Jerry Brown: 8%

Lyndon LaRouche: 1%


Republicans

George Bush: 32%

Jack Kemp: 29%

Bob Dole: 21%

Howard Baker: 10%

John B. Anderson: 9%


(In Puerto Rico Edmund Muskie, Scoop Jackson, and Jack Kemp all don't compete so that they can campaign in New Hampshire. George Bush and Ted Kennedy win the Puerto Rico primary.)

 

[Gentleman Biaggi]

(I’m lazy so here’s all the primaries)


Massachusetts

Democrats: Ted Kennedy

Republican: Jack Kemp


Vermont

Democrats: Ted Kennedy

Republicans: George Bush


(Jerry Brown, Scoop Jackson, Edmund Muskie, Cliff Finch, Howard Baker, and John B. Anderson all drop out.)



South Carolina

Democrats: Ted Kennedy

Republicans: Bob Dole


Alabama

Democrats: Ted Kennedy

Republicans: Bob Dole


Florida

Democrats: Ted Kennedy

Republicans: Bob Dole


Georgia

Democrats: Ted Kennedy

Republicans: George Bush


(Jack Kemp and Walter Mondale drop out, Ted Kennedy becomes the presumptive Democratic nominee)


Illinois

Republicans: Bob Dole


Connecticut

Republicans: George Bush


Kansas

Republicans: Bob Dole


Wisconsin

Republicans: Bob Dole


Louisiana

Republicans: George Bush


Pennsylvania

Republicans: Dole


Texas

Republicans: Bush


D.C

Republicans: Dole


Indiana

Republicans: Dole


North Carolina

Republicans: Dole


Tennessee

Republicans: Dole


Maryland

Republicans: Dole


Nebraska

Republicans: Dole


(George Bush would drop out, making Dole the Republican nominee.)

 

[Theoretical_TJ]

Dole is very interesting here, but is going to be the victim of Ford's flubbing. I'm not sure who'd be willing to be the sacrificial VP lamb in this likely roast. Assuming the Democrats run away with this election, it sets the table for a Kemp-Bush slugfest in the RNC in 1984.

Teddy's not a moderate choice on the Dem side and he's got Chappaquiddick on his hands and Dole is a conservative-moderate bridge candidate. I could see moderate Lloyd Bentsen being a potential frontrunner for Kennedy's VP (assuming the direct parallels to JFK-LBJ aren't too traumatizing/eerie).

 

[Gentleman Biaggi]

Ted Kennedy selected Minnesota Senator Walter Mondale as his vice president to gain Midwestern votes. Bob Dole would select Meldrim Thomson Jr. to gain Northeastern votes. However the Republicans were already suffering because of Ford's economic failures. The Democratic ticket continuously attacked Dole on this. The Democrats would then crush the Republicans in the election.

 

[Gentleman Biaggi]

Ted Kennedy had just given a speech to supporters on March 30th 1981. A day that would live in infamy. Kennedy waved to his supporters. All of a sudden Kennedy heard a loud crack! Kennedy crumpled to the ground. The secret service would instantly go after the shooter. Others rushed to Kennedy. But they all came to the same conclusion. The president was dead.

 

[Gentleman Biaggi]

The inauguration of Walter Mondale
Walter Mondale couldn't believe it. He was the president of the United States of America. He had always wanted the job. But not like this. Not after the death of a president.

"Today I stand as your president. Not by choice but because president Kennedy was just killed. As president of the United States I will do everything in my power to continue Ted Kennedy's dream for America. Thank you and good night." -President Walter Mondale, 1981

 

[Historyman 14]

Why you killed Ted Kennedy! We have to destroy the USSR!