2018 Presidential Election

[FitzB]

Latest You Gov Polling from Sunday May 21st, 2023

UK Parliament Polling
Con 33%
Lab 32%
NPP 15%
Lib Dem 10%
SNP 3%
Green 2%
Soc Alliance 2%
Others 3%
Scotland
SNP 35%
Lab 26%
Con 24%
Lib Dem 9%
Soc Alliance 4%
Scot Green 2%
Based on the above figures, this would be the make up of the House of Commons
Con: 280
Lab: 276
SNP: 28
Lib Dem: 22
NPP: 21
NI: 18
PC: 3
Soc All: 1
Speaker: 1
*Result Conservatives 46 seats short of a majority (326)

That certainly has the potential to be an interesting result!

Where do the LibDems stand in this timeline? IRL the idea of them going into coalition with the Conservatives seems impossible after 2010, however based on the position of the other parties here it looks like they could potentially be kingmakers in coalition negotiations.

Lots to be played for of course, and I know we can’t always trust polling data, but it would be interesting to see how coalition negotiations shake out…

 

[lord caedus]

Republican filibuster resumes as Senate Democrats plan a return to committee work

Monday, May 22nd, 2023

The Senate returned to session on Monday and resumed the Republican filibuster of the American Health Care Protection Act (AHCPA), while Senate Democrats announced plans to re-start committee work on Wednesday.

When the Senate was gaveled back into session, Senator Tony Sutton (R-SD) resumed his speech on the Senate floor, discussing portions of the AHCPA regarding the act's sections that expand the number of essential services plans must cover before they can be sold. Republican senators had begun to read the bill, estimated to be nearly 800 pages in its entirety, on Friday evening, with Senate Minority Whip Max Lobell III (R-GA) expecting that the GOP could continue the filibuster into June just by reading each section of the bill and offering "a sentence or two of thought [or] a question."

"If the majority believes that it has the right to jam this gigantic bill down our throats, they better be prepared to sit there while we read it." Lobell said.

Senate Majority Whip Sarah O'Brien (D-VT) said the criticism over the bill's size was "pure posturing" from the Republicans.

"Senator Lobell knows that writing legislation is complicated, and requires a lot of words and definitions to become a good law...A bill that seeks to improve a huge chunk of our economy [health care] is also going to be very long and very complicated."

Over the weekend, the leadership of both the American Medical Association and AARP called on Republican senators to end the filibuster, and reiterated their organizations' support for the healthcare reform.

 

[Marky Bunny]

Where do the LibDems stand in this timeline? IRL the idea of them going into coalition with the Conservatives seems impossible after 2010, however based on the position of the other parties here it looks like they could potentially be kingmakers in coalition negotiations.

2010 never happened in our timeline (the elections changed because Mrs Thatcher was never toppled from power in November 1990 & she went with an election in June 1991).
The comparable election in our story timeline is 2004, which produced a hung parliament with the Conservatives the largest party on 293 seats, Labour 261 seats & Lib Dems on 62 seats. Unlike in OTL 2010 Ricky Meyer didn't try and hang on, (although as the sitting Government he had the right to try & form a government), when it was clear the Conservatives had gained more seats & more votes than him, he resigned on the Friday (Labour and the Lib Dems combined would have not given him a majority, he would of been 1 short of 324(646 seats then in the HOC). So Graty became PM, and asked the Lib Dems to provide support on a "confidence & supply" basis (as the DUP did in OTL in 2017, after May failed to win an outright majority).
The Lib Dems are "still the Lib Dems" if that makes sense, although they are moving up back from open support for a "United States of Europe".

 

[TrevorFromStarWars]

2010 never happened in our timeline
So the calendar went from 2009-2011?

 

[Marky Bunny]

2010 never happened in our timeline
So the calendar went from 2009-2011?

The 2010 General Election

 

[Marky Bunny]

Just some "housekeeping" regarding the UK General Election. Myself and @lord caedus know the final result and outcome (that was decided a few months ago). There will be debates which will be announced shortly. This election is the most detailed "fictional" UK election I have done. I have % swings for each seat, regional breakdown's etc, I have gone full "Peter Snow/Jeremy Vine"!!.

 

[Marky Bunny]

Tuesday May 23rd, 2023

General Election Preview

The decision of Prime-Minister Michael Duggan to go to Buckingham Palace and ask King Charles for a dissolution of Parliament and call a general election for June 29th certainly took everyone by surprise. The common prevailing wisdom among the press, the opposition and even Conservative MP's that the election would be held on the latest possible day, Thursday October 5th. The BBC understands other than a few key members of the PM's staff and inner cabinet knew about the decision until the Monday morning full cabinet meeting.

Following the slightly better than expected local election results in England on May 4th, started the PM thinking of calling an election in June rather than waiting it out to the end. Following the boost of the Kings Coronation, most opinion had the Tories moving slightly ahead (although two have a narrow Labour lead), the parties internal polling had three point lead, which would have them short of an overall majority, but clearly close enough to 326 to stay in office. Last weekend, Duggan called over to Chequers, the official country residence of the Prime-Minister, members of his key team including the Party Chair, the Deputy PM, Home Secretary, Foreign Secretary and the Chancellor, to discuss going to the polls in June. It seems as well the talk of discontent in the Labour shadow cabinet may have helped the decision, along with the concerns of Jack Coll's health.

To secure an overall majority, a party must win at least 326 seats. If no party succeeds in doing so, the result will be a hung Parliament. This has happened only twice since 1945 (February 1974 & June 2004), The Conservatives have a majority of 16 seats, although the working majority is 23 seats when the Speaker of the House of Commons, three Deputy Speakers (two Labour and one Conservative) and the five Sinn Féin members (who follow a policy of abstentionism) are excluded.

Parliament will not be officially dissolved until Wednesday May 31st. MPs will have until close of business on Friday to get remaining legislation, that the parties can agree on, through Parliament - a process known as the "wash-up". Commons leader George Tamm said this would include all stages of the Finance Bill, which enacts the Budget, and further debate on the Digital Economy Bill, and crime and security legislation. The new house will sit for the first time on Tuesday July 11th.

 

[lord caedus]

Ryan says he's ready to "get back to work"

Tuesday, May 23rd, 2023

Senator Curtis Ryan (R-OR) told a Capitol Hill reporter that he's ready to "get back to work", and has been actively involved in negotiations with both the White House and Senate Democrats over undisclosed provisions in the American Health Care Protection Act.

Ryan, one of the few Senate Republicans who has openly stated his willingness to tackle healthcare reform during his time in Congress, said that he had voiced his support to end the filibuster within the GOP caucus before the Memorial Day weekend, saying he would support the introduction of a cloture motion tomorrow (Wednesday) to facilitate an end to the filibuster before the weekend. Per Senate rules, cloture motions "lie" for two days before being voted on, meaning a cloture motion introduced tomorrow would be voted on on Friday.

However, Ryan would have to gain at least 15 other senators willing to support a cloture motion, and only fellow Republican Daryl Lukins (OK) has signaled his willingness to sign on to a cloture motion. Majority Leader Jimmy Fitzsimmons (D-MA) declined to publicly support a cloture motion "at this time", but said that his position could change after meeting with the Senate Democratic caucus and White House officials.

Ryan, whose home state of Oregon went to President Seaborn by nearly 25 percent of the vote in November, is considered one of the most moderate Republicans in the Senate, and reportedly declined Republican leadership's requests to take part in the filibuster.

 

[lord caedus]

Noble says primary victory was a triumph over "the forces of darkness"

Thursday, May 25th, 2023

Former news anchor Amber Noble called her victory in Tuesday's Republican primary was a triumph of "normal, hard-working Americans" over what she called "the forces of darkness" within the Grand Old Party.

Noble, who won a close victory over Lieutenant Governor Cliff Connell by a margin of less than two percent (50.7 percent of the vote to Connell's 49.3 percent), stated her opinions in a radio interview on Salem Radio Network. The controversial former nightly news anchor said her victory was "proof that the [George] Soros media brainwashing" did not take hold, invoking a far-right, anti-Semitic conspiracy theories involving Soros, an Austrian-born Jewish financier who is known for his donations to progressive organizations.

Outgoing governor Walter Collins (R) publicly congratulated Noble on her primary win, although privately aides acknowledge that Collins worked tirelessly to oppose her nomination. Collins, a potential candidate for the Republican presidential nomination in 2026, is one of the most nationally-prominent moderate Republicans and won both of his races in the purplish state by large margins.

Noble will face two other women, state senate minority leader Kristin Pullman (D) and former Salem city council member Debbie Kelly (Socialist), making it a foregone conclusion that Oregon will elect its first female governor in November. Pullman, who is gay, would also be the state's first openly LGBT governor if she is elected. Current polls show a fairly divided race between Noble and Pullman, who unlike Noble easily overcame her nearest rivals to win the Democratic nomination.

-----------------------------​

Thursday, May 25th 2023

Republicans come under pressure with military appointments held up by filibuster

Washington, D.C. — Senate Republicans are facing political pressure from an unexpected place as a result of their ongoing filibuster of President Seaborn's health care proposal: the defense and national security community. The filibuster has stalled routine business in the Senate, which includes ratifying armed forces commissions and promotions, and the unknown impact on the Senate's calendar has some in the national security field concerned about how quickly the "world's greatest deliberative body" will cope with the growing backlog of missed committee hearings, nominations and bills that have passed the House.

"There's a real concern that if the Senate extends its filibuster too long, it will begin to effect some aspects of both the military and the national security apparatus," Nancy McNally, former UN ambassador and National Security Advisor, told NBS. "Military promotions or commissions have already been delayed, and that has an impact on those officers' pension sizes...if they have families, it throws a wrench into plans if they were supposed to be re-assigned to a new post and so on. It's a potential headache that the Pentagon wants to avoid if it can."

Senator Herman Morton (R-WY), the ranking member of the Senate Armed Services Committee, disputed this characterization, saying the fears were "overblown" and that most of the blocked military commissions will be quickly waved through once the filibuster ends. Morton is also the third-most senior Senate Republican, and is the most senior Republican to take part in the filibuster, speaking for five hours on Wednesday before letting Matt Chantler (R-ND) take over maintaining the filibuster.

 

[RRusso1982]

Let me guess. Amber Noble is based on Kari Lake.

 

[Marky Bunny]

Let me guess. Amber Noble is based on Kari Lake.

Inspiration. Just say I have her to reflect the views of OTL GOP party at the present time. The show did this with Rob Ritchie -George W. Bush, and the same with Arnold Vinick-John McCain.

 

[Marky Bunny]

Saturday May 27th, 2023

Broadcasters and political parties agree three TV debates

The three main broadcasters, BBC, ITV and Sky TV have agreed with the political parties, formats and dates for three TV debates. There will be three major debates, plus three separate debates in Wales, Scotland and Northern Ireland.

• First Debate: Thursday June 8th: ITV "The Big Eight": Leaders of Con, Lab, Lib Dem, NPP, SNP, Soc All, Green, PC
• Second Debate: Thursday June 15th: SKY News: "The Big Four" Leaders of Con, Lab, Lib Dem, NPP
• Third Debate: Sunday June 25th: BBC: "The Big Two" Head to head debate between Michael Duggan and Jack Coll

 

[lord caedus]

For some reason, I remembered this and that it's been a long time (oh god three years) since it was updated.

Outside of the Supreme Court, all I did was take the OTL sitting judges' day of nomination and sort them into a TTL presidency. When I was re-doing the count, I realized I had missed one of TTL Bush's appointees while he was Acting President. I also folded the "other" judges into the "district" category.

Court/Pres.	REAGAN	NEWMAN	LASSITER	BARTLET	SANTOS	WALKEN	SEABORN	vacancies
SUPREME	0	0	1 (11.1%)	3 (33.3%)	1 (11.1%)	3 (33.3%)	1 (11.1%)	0
CIRCUIT	4 (2.3%)	5 (2.8%)	6 (3.4%)	26 (14.6%)	13 (17.3%)	60 (33.7%)	57 (32.2%)	7 (3.9%)
DISTRICT	5* (0.7%)	2 (0.3%)	27 (4.0%)	68 (10.0%)	60 (8.9%)	240 (35.5%)	212 (31.3%)	63 (9.3%)
TOTAL	9 (1.0%)	7 (0.8%)	34 (3.9%)	97 (11.2%)	74 (8.6%)	303 (35.1%)	270 (31.3%)	70 (8.1%)

*- Three of the district court judges were nominated by Acting President George P. Bush

By partisan affiliation:

Republican (Reagan, Lassiter, Walken): 346 (40.0%)​

Democratic (Newman, Bartlet, Santos, Seaborn): 448 (51.9%)​

vacancies: 70 (8.1%)​

The last Carter appointee retired in 2021, so Reagan is the earliest-serving president (and last OTL one) to still have judges he appointed to those positions sitting ITTL's federal judiciary.

In terms of the Circuit Court (Court of Appeals), the Democrats holding the presidency for 16 of the last 24 years has meant that seven of the 13 have a majority of judges appointed by Democratic presidents. Five (the 1st, 7th, 10th, 11th & Federal Circuits) are split or, owing to vacancies, mean no one party has appointed a majority. Only one circuit (the 5th) has a majority of its judges appointed by Republican presidents.

The Supreme Court also now has a majority of its justices appointed by Democratic presidents with Rachel Carmine (a Lassiter appointee) having been swapped for Olivia Emmett Franklin (Seaborn). However, since one of those Democratic appointees was conservative bloc leader Christopher Mulready, and with Carmine being a member of the court's moderate-liberal wing when she retired, the court is still roughly where it was when Seaborn took office.

 

[RRusso1982]

You know what would be good? If you get a chance, could you put of one of those posts, the 10 mostikely 2026 candidates on each side? You had done that from time to time in the past

 

[lord caedus]

Last day of Senate filibuster before Memorial Day marked by exhaustion, frayed tempers

Saturday, May 27th, 2023

Exhausted senators from both parties wrapped up the tenth day of the filibuster over the American Health Care Protection Act at midnight in Washington, and the stress of the Republican effort saw tempers frayed in a body that prides itself on its collegiality.

An agitated Tim Burrell (D-NY) got in a verbal altercation with Davis Roberts (R-TX) when the Texas senator was passing him in a hallway, allegedly over Roberts' insinuations that the AHPCA would "render it impossible" for union-provided healthcare plans to continue their coverage. Burrell, a former NYPD officer, reportedly told Roberts he was a "fucking liar" and the two men had to be separated by aides. (According to his office, Burrell apologized to Roberts a few hours later)

On the Republican side, Gina DiMeo (R-ID), had to cut short her time on the Senate floor after becoming visibly emotional while discussing the AHPCA's contraception provisions, later saying she was "physically and emotionally exhausted" after four hours of continuous speaking instead of a planned six. The abrupt change of plans resulted in Senate Republicans being forced to call for a quorum to allow the next planned speaker, Hamilton Crooks (R-SC), time to come down from his office. The quorum call forced almost all of the Democratic majority, most of whom who have only left the Senate Building to catch some sleep in the comfort of their DC homes or apartments instead of the make-shift barracks in the Senate offices, to scramble to the floor to achieve a quorum and force the Republicans to continue speaking.

Several senators on both sides of the aisle also expressed discontent with the filibuster, although Senate Minority Whip Max Lobell III (R-GA) stated that there was "no possibility" of a filibuster of AHCPA ending without "significant amendments...at the very least." President Seaborn is expected to meet with both parties' Senate leadership teams on Monday evening, ahead of the Senate resuming its session on Tuesday after Memorial Day.

 

[MHurtado09]

For some reason, I remembered this and that it's been a long time (oh god three years) since it was updated.

So who got the first female justice in if it wasn't Reagan? Where can I find when TTL justices were appointed?

 

[Marky Bunny]

You know what would be good? If you get a chance, could you put of one of those posts, the 10 mostikely 2026 candidates on each side? You had done that from time to time in the past

It is a bit early yet, but there will be something done by the end of the year.

 

[lord caedus]

So who got the first female justice in if it wasn't Reagan? Where can I find when TTL justices were appointed?

Newman appointed the first female justice ITTL (Maureen Brannigan in 1987).

The justices are listed here by both seat by the court, starting from the Warren Court to the present.

 

[lord caedus]

Filibuster resumes as Democrats say they are "re-evaluating" individual mandate, insurance subsidies

Tuesday, May 30th, 2023

The Senate filibuster of the American Health Care Protection Act (AHCPA) resumed after two days of respite for the Memorial Day weekend, with Democrats saying they are "re-evaluating" whether to include an individual mandate for healthcare, and the size of subsidies to insurance companies.

While no Senate Democrat was willing to go on the record, several sources close to the negotiations say that the inclusion of an individual mandate and increasing subsidies to healthcare companies to account for an increase in enrollees was the largest demand of several Republican senators who have quietly signaled their openness to ending the filibuster. An individual mandate would require all American adults to be enrolled in a healthcare plan or pay a penalty when they file their taxes; Democratic leaders such as Speaker Daniel Maddox (D-IL) have previously stated that they believe an individual mandate is unnecessary. Republicans, however, say that such a mandate would push younger Americans, the group most likely to forgo buying health insurance, into the market and drive down premiums for all members.

"It is a supply and demand issue at its core," Patrick Stacy (R-TN), said of an individual mandate. "The market will help keep healthcare costs low, if we give it the chance."

Carlin Cassidy (R-PA), who had been widely touted as one of the key Republican senators Democrats are looking to flip, said that an inclusion of an individual mandate was "a token effort to economic realism" and reiterated his opposition to the bill, saying it would cause "a deficit explosion."

Other Republican proposals, such as forbidding insurance from covering gender-affirming care or surgeries, or from covering any medication that could act as birth control, have been uniformly rejected by Democrats, those familiar with the negotiations say.

 

[Marky Bunny]

Wednesday May 31st, 2023

Parliament dissolved as former PM Samuels gives moving farewell speech
As has been become an unofficial tradition in the last few years, a notable outgoing member of the House of Commons who is not standing for re-election to the House of Commons at the up coming election, closes the business of the house with a farewell speech. This time it was the former Prime-Minister Richard Samuels who brought the proceedings of the 58th Parliament to an end, with a typically funny and at times moving speech.

The speech came after the final PMQ's of the parliament with all the party leaders already in election mode, with fierce clashes between Michael Duggan and Jack Coll, in what was basically a warm up for the up coming TV debates. "You can't trust Labour with the economy" was the thrust of the Conservative attack, with Jack coll claiming that the country was "worse off after twelve wasted years".

After that it was the turn of the former Prime-Minister, Richard Samuels. "From the first moment I walked into this chamber in May 1979 to today, I never felt anything but a deep sense of honour to serve, it is truly the Mother of all parliaments". Samuels looked back on his three famous speeches in the House, the first in 1982 during the Saturday debate at the start of the Falklands conflict, his 1985 speech attacking Labour "Loony Left" councils, and his December 2011 statement to the House of Commons as deputy Prime-Minister following the Jerusalem attacks, when he had to confirm the death of former Labour Prime-Minister Ricky Meyer. He also spoke of his fight with his own sexuality during the 1980's and the 1990's. "Friends I knew where dying of this mystery disease" speaking regards HIV "it wasn't a gay plague, as was said that the time, it was just an evil disease", he praised the breakthroughs in HIV treatment in the decades since . He also said that "I didn't do enough to speak up when in Government against Section 28" (the infamous act which prohibited the "promotion of homosexuality" by local authorities). He told of his almost violet confrontation with four then right wing members of his own party who where openly homophobic (Terry Dicks, David Evans, Jill Knight and Geoffrey Dickens) in a House of Commons Bar in 1988 "There where rumors over my sexuality at the time, Dickens called me some names I am not going to repeat here in this house, but you get the picture". He said the winning of the 2016 referendum on equal marriage was the "greatest thing I have done". Speaking of the coming general election "I know who will win, it will be the British people, it is there choice, not ours, of course I would prefer it if my side won, but if the Hon Member for Chorley, is our next Prime-Minister, he will have my support". In a rare moment, the whole of the House of Commons rose and applauded the speech.