2018 Presidential Election

[Marky Bunny]

So there are four battleground States, Florida, Michigan, Ohio and Pennsylvania, Seaborn should be able to win Florida, Ohio is a good possibility as well, North Carolina could be the surprise of Election night. Oregon might end up going Seaborn's way, Virginia along with Michigan and Pennsylvania will likely go for Shallick, I wouldn't be surprised if Minnesota gives it's electoral votes for Shallick on the basis of him selecting Hunter to be his running mate. There is a big question mark over how Arizona, Colorado & New Mexico goes, who ever they end up voting for, should determine how Nevada votes for. New Hampshire should be for Seaborn, as Liz Bartlet is going to make sure that Seaborn gets the state's 4 electoral votes. As how the election's trajectory is trending is nearly impossible to foretell. Maybe there could be a San Andreos like crisis in October that muddles the election outcome even more than it currently is!

Minnesota is a another real battle ground state in the WW world. It was the fourth closest state in 1998 with Bartlet winning by a margin of 4.25% (just 92,111 votes), Buckner picked up 10.57% of the vote. Excluding 2002 (the Bartlet landslide), in 2006 it was the eighth closest state with Santos winning by a margin of 2.48% (just 74,676 votes). Then in 2010 it was the closest state in the election with Walken winning it by just 0.02% (559 votes) and 2014 like in 1998 it was the fourth closest state with Walken winning by 2.76% (just 95,284 votes).
Electoral math and the states ten electoral votes could be vital in a close race, Hunter clearly helps Shallick in trying to hold this battleground state.

Arizona is an odd state, Eisenhower won it for the Republicans against Bartlet in 1998 easily by 11.85% (178,830 votes), Bartlet won it in the 2002 landslide but only by 3.82% (53,840 votes). In 2006 it was Democrat again with Santos winning it by 4.62% (141,189 votes), but it in both 2010 & 2014 it voted for Walken by large margins 9.24% (230,992 votes) in 2010 & 11.67% (292,504 votes) in 2014.

 

[Marky Bunny]

In case anyone hasn't seen the Presidential Maps in the WW World (these appeared on the original thread) I have posted them all below.
1986

Newman & Pierce 274 ev 50.17%
Furman & Holner 264 ev 49.83%

1990

Lassister & Eisenhower 401 ev 52.95%
Newman & Pierce 137 ev 47.05%

1994

Lassister & Eisenhower 523 ev 62.04%
Pierce & Goodwin 15 ev 37.96%

1998

Bartlet & Hoynes 303 ev 48.03%
Eisenhower & Bennett 235 ev 45.47%
Buckner & Le Marr 0 ev 6.50%

2002

Bartlet & Hoynes 390 ev 55.57%
Ritchie & Heston 148 ev 44.43%

2006

Santos & McGarry 272 ev 49.64%
Vinick & Sullivan 266 ev 50.36%

2010

Walken & Clark 310 ev 51.39%
Santos & Tripplehorn 228 ev 48.61%

2014

Walken & Clark 270 ev 50.11%
Fitzsimmons & Adair 268 ev 49.89%

 

[Marky Bunny]

I can't take the blame for the 2006 map, blame the shows writers, it is completely nutty!!!
A Republican wins California, Maine, Vermont, Ohio, Florida & Iowa & still loses as the Democrat wins Texas, Missouri & South Carolina!!

 

[Marky Bunny]

Thursday August 9th 2018

Straus "Join me" he tells disaffected Democrats

Former Ohio Senator Haydn Straus told the final night of the Green Party convention in Boston that disaffected Democrats should "join him" in his Presidential campaign.

Straus who only beat Susan Buckner by a single vote on Tuesday night, never the less praised his opponent, the daughter of the last Third Party challenger Jim Buckner twenty years ago, who will now be his running-mate "she fought an amazing campaign, she will be a great partner for me in the next three months, as we ask the American People, let's do something different".

Straus also changed his style in making his speech in walking around the stage with a microphone and with only a few notes rather than a prepared speech from behind a podium.

Straus turned his fire on both the Democrats and the Republican tickets "When Senator Seaborn picked the CEO of the one of the biggest corporations in the country as his running-mate, look at what message that sends out to people who are struggling, is Franklin Hollis and Seaborn on your side, or look at the Republicans, Henry Shallick, a man tainted by a thousand shabby deals in Washington, and his running mate a man who be believes it is better for a women to die in childbirth, rather than have an abortion, or do the American people what a President and Vice-President who will fight for the ordinary Joe on main street, will defend a women's right to make decisions about her own health and body, fight poverty in our inner cities, and fight for a cleaner, safer America".

Haydn Straus gives his nomination speech to the Green Party in Boston last night in unconventional style

(photo by Harrison Ford-casting from 2010)

 

[mspence]

Now this could be interesting...who wouldn't want to see Jack Ryan as President?

 

[Marky Bunny]

Now this could be interesting...who wouldn't want to see Jack Ryan as President?

I only got in one Star Wars reference as well

 

[mspence]

Hayden Strauss Hits Midwest In Campaign Blitz

GNN Election Central-As Sam Seaborn and Henry Shallick traded barbs at each other from opposite sides of the country, Hayden Strauss began a whirlwind tour of the "rust belt" states as his long-shot bid to become the first Green Party president began in earnest. "We need leadership that truly speaks for the people, and is by and of the people, not simply two wealthy nominees fighting for scraps-your votes," Strauss said at a large campaign rally in his native Ohio today. Mister Strauss brought up comparisons between himself and Abraham Lincoln as he shrugged off criticism that he is taking away votes from either of the other two candidates, and that no third party candidate has ever become President.
"Lincoln himself was an underdog, a dark horse, who first ran against a more well known man from the opposite party, and then emerged as the leader our country needed at a time of crisis. Well, we are approaching a crisis again-a time of division and anger, when we should be listening instead of yelling at each other. I am listening to you, and I want those that take their positions of leadership for granted to, as well. We must remember that democracy is about one person, one vote. It’s about all of us coming together to determine the future of our country. It is not about a handful of billionaires buying elections, or governors suppressing the vote by denying poor people or people of color the right to vote. Our job is to stand together to defeat the drift toward oligarchy and create a vibrant democracy.”

Hayden Strauss poses for a campaign ad, which has since quickly gone viral on YouTube

 

[heatmaster]

Could Haydn Straus be the gremlin that see's the undoing of both Seaborn and Shallick? If he gains enough traction and begins to poll in the double digits, he might have to be included in the presidential debates. Also Ohio might prove critical especially if Straus overtakes either or both of the other contenders. He might begin to peel off disaffected Republican voters who had supported Gault in the primaries and Democratic voters not too enamored with Seaborn. It could be a very interesting campaign. If Straus wins enough electoral votes, he may deny either Seaborn or Shallick that magic 270 & thus throw the election into the House.

 

[Arrowfan237]

Hayden Strauss Hits Midwest In Campaign Blitz

GNN Election Central-As Sam Seaborn and Henry Shallick traded barbs at each other from opposite sides of the country, Hayden Strauss began a whirlwind tour of the "rust belt" states as his long-shot bid to become the first Green Party president began in earnest. "We need leadership that truly speaks for the people, and is by and of the people, not simply two wealthy nominees fighting for scraps-your votes," Strauss said at a large campaign rally in his native Ohio today. Mister Strauss brought up comparisons between himself and Abraham Lincoln as he shrugged off criticism that he is taking away votes from either of the other two candidates, and that no third party candidate has become President since Abraham Lincoln. "Lincoln himself was an underdog, a dark horse, who first ran against a more well known man from the opposite party, and then emerged as the leader our country needed at a time of crisis. Well, we are approaching a crisis again-a time of division and anger, when we should be listening instead of yelling at each other. I am listening to you, and I want those that take their positions of leadership for granted to, as well. We must remember that democracy is about one person, one vote. It’s about all of us coming together to determine the future of our country. It is not about a handful of billionaires buying elections, or governors suppressing the vote by denying poor people or people of color the right to vote. Our job is to stand together to defeat the drift toward oligarchy and create a vibrant democracy.”

Hayden Strauss poses for a campaign ad, which has since quickly gone viral on YouTube

Lincoln wasn't a third-party candidate. The National Union Party was just the name Republicans gave themselves in 1864 but it was still the Republican Party.

 

[Marky Bunny]

Could Haydn Straus be the gremlin that see's the undoing of both Seaborn and Shallick? If he gains enough traction and begins to poll in the double digits, he might have to be included in the presidential debates. Also Ohio might prove critical especially if Straus overtakes either or both of the other contenders. He might begin to peel off disaffected Republican voters who had supported Gault in the primaries and Democratic voters not too enamored with Seaborn. It could be a very interesting campaign. If Straus wins enough electoral votes, he may deny either Seaborn or Shallick that magic 270 & thus throw the election into the House.

I don't think Straus is going win any states, like in the real word no "Third Party Candidate" has won any electoral votes on the popular vote (eg not electors voting for someone else in the electoral college) since George Wallace in 1968, although Ross Perot did get very close in the real worlds 1992 election beating the sitting President into 3rd place in Maine, and was only 56,600 votes behind Clinton whilst he also finished second in Utah ahead of Clinton, as well as very strong third placed finishes in Alaska, Idaho & Kansas.

Yes 100% Straus can certainly take votes from both candidates, although he does hurt Seaborn more, I am not story wise looking for him to get above 10% nationwide (although he will be shouting loudly to get into the debates), even without him winning any electoral college votes, in the key battleground states, taking enough votes away could mean we are looking at a 269-269 tie (Before everyone starts shouting, it's just an idea we are looking at), but it is of course very plausible.

 

[Arrowfan237]

While he may not win any states it may not be implausible for him to win a District in Maine or Nebraska. Even a single district being won by a third-party candidate could be an issue.

 

[Marky Bunny]

Oh and I have the result spreadsheet created, I have done the first run through with the results, I am not telling what result I have so far.......
Although I will say, it's going to be bloody close both in terms of the electoral college and the popular vote.

 

[heatmaster]

Straus winning a congressional district in Maine is not in the realm of impossibility, it could be crucial say if either Seaborn or Shallick either have 269 & 268, we are into the likelihood, that the Presidential contest continues beyond November 6 and that the House of Representatives decides. The electoral college could meet to confirm the result or the deadlock could be broken by a "faithless" elector voting to put one of the candidates "over the top", but even if this were the case, such a result would not be revealed until Congress meets to tabulate the votes of the electoral votes. So this means that both candidates would still be on standby to lobby in the House to get the votes needed for election. If the deadlock remains beyond January 20th, who serves as "Acting President" until a decision is made? Is it the Vice-President elect or the Speaker of the House?

 

[heatmaster]

Oh and I have the result spreadsheet created, I have done the first run through with the results, I am not telling what result I have so far.......
Although I will say, it's going to be bloody close both in terms of the electoral college and the popular vote.

Ouch!

 

[Marky Bunny]

Straus winning a congressional district in Maine is not in the realm of impossibility, it could be crucial say if either Seaborn or Shallick either have 269 & 268, we are into the likelihood, that the Presidential contest continues beyond November 6 and that the House of Representatives decides. The electoral college could meet to confirm the result or the deadlock could be broken by a "faithless" elector voting to put one of the candidates "over the top", but even if this were the case, such a result would not be revealed until Congress meets to tabulate the votes of the electoral votes. So this means that both candidates would still be on standby to lobby in the House to get the votes needed for election. If the deadlock remains beyond January 20th, who serves as "Acting President" until a decision is made? Is it the Vice-President elect or the Speaker of the House?

Don't worry yet about a 269-269 tie, you should no way see that is going to be the final result.

Here are the key points lifted & edited from a Time article in 2016.

What happens in the case of a second presidential tie? According to the 12th Amendment, “if the House of Representatives shall not choose a President whenever the right of choice shall devolve upon them, before the fourth day of March next following, then the Vice-President shall act as President, as in case of the death or other constitutional disability of the President.” That was later changed to the Vice President-Elect and to January 20 in the 20th Amendment.
The Vice President-Elect is chosen by the Senate in a separate process from the House, which administers the Electoral College. If the Senate remains Republican then Minnesota Senator Jack Hunter would become President. If the Democrats gained control of the Upper Chamber, then Franklin Hollis will be the acting President. If the Senate also deadlocks—the unlikeliest of unlikely scenarios—then the presidency would go to the next person in line, the Speaker of the House, currently Democrat Daniel Maddox who would remain in office until either the Senate or the House elects a President & Vice-President.

 

[mspence]

Lincoln wasn't a third-party candidate. The National Union Party was just the name Republicans gave themselves in 1864 but it was still the Republican Party.

Weren't the Republicans essentially a third party when they were first formed, following the Democrats and the Whigs?

 

[Excelsior]

Weren't the Republicans essentially a third party when they were first formed, following the Democrats and the Whigs?

There was no Whig candidate in any presidential election after 1852.

 

[Arrowfan237]

oIf the Senate also deadlocks—the unlikeliest of unlikely scenarios—then the presidency would go to the next person in line, the Speaker of the House, currently Democrat Daniel Maddox who would remain in office until either the Senate or the House elects a President & Vice-President.

The Speaker would not become President. The Vice-President, acting in her duty as President of the Senate, would break the tie (just like any other vote). At least that’s my understanding of the constitution (which never addresses the issue and never addresses much else regarding an acting president except for the fact that it is possible). If there is a tie in the senate we are looking at a constitutional crisis that makes 1876 and 2000 look like a walk in the park.

Weren't the Republicans essentially a third party when they were first formed, following the Democrats and the Whigs?

The Whigs were the Republican Party. Members shifted allegiance to Republicans. No third-party Candidate has ever won the presidency. It has always been one of the two major parties. The only difference has been what those two parties were.

 

[mspence]

Post edited-the Republicans emerged after the Whigs self destructed over slavery.

 

[lord caedus]

So here are the infoboxes of TTL's presidential elections from 1986 to 2014:

And the infobox for the ongoing election after the Green convention:

Spoiler: Notes

• The state results and popular votes are all taken from the various thread PDFs
• The turnout rate for the 1986-2006 elections are based off of the popular vote totals given for each election matched up against the OTL eligible voter population. It should be noted that IOTL the United States hasn't had a presidential election with over 60% turnout since 1968—in this universe, the last three presidential elections have all cleared 65% of eligible voters voting.
• Shallick is shown first in the current election box because the convention is that the incumbent, or the candidate of the incumbent's party (if they aren't running) is listed first. Seaborn is second because obviously the Democrats were the next-best party in the previous election. Straus is there because theoretically he has a chance to become president similar to the OTL standard of including presidential candidates with ballot access in states at least 270 electoral votes in the infobox before the election.