2018 Presidential Election

Discussion in 'Alternate History Books and Media' started by Marky Bunny, Jul 1, 2018.

  1. Marky Bunny Well-Known Member

    Joined:
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    England
    UKPolitics.com
    Friday August 10th 2018


    First Televised Debate round-up

    It was a curious sight. Eight party leaders lined up on stage in Manchester. Two where women, including the Leader of the opposition. It was a debate which now symbolizes the fact the United Kingdom in 2018 is in a multi-party political world. All those on stage where MP'S apart from Green Leader Patrick Rackett, although Hamish Galloway faces a tough fight to hold onto his Glasgow Seat won at the 2014 by-election following his defection from Labour. They all had equal billing with the Prime-Minister, Leader of the Opposition and the Leader of the Liberal Democrats.

    Richard Samuels performed as well expected, he was competent, smart and at times funny, his interruption of Andrea Benn on a question on the NHS was superb "I think I can her answer for her, it's Labour's NHS, and it's under threat by evil Tory cuts". It was a clever way of using Labour's attacks on the Conservatives on the NHS to his advantage, and showing labour always says the same thing when in opposition. The Prime-Minister plays the likable but doddery Uncle persona, and he carries it off to a tee, but underneath all that, this is a guy that has overcome his sexuality, served under Mrs Thatcher, been Deputy-Prime Minister, as well as Home Secretary and Foreign Secretary, and Shadow Chancellor, he oozes command of the issues, he looks and sounds like a Prime-Minister should do.

    Andrea Benn despite being ambushed by Samuels on the NHS had some good lines, even if they where clearly heavily scripted and rehearsed but she delivered them well. She is the opposite of Samuels, who loves the general broad policy strokes, whilst Benn loves policy in detail, her answer and attack on the Conservative policy which is likely to be included in the Manifesto when it is launched on Monday of the DWP "subcontracting Benefit payments" to the County Councils and the Country Governors was handled well and with detail, if just a little boring.

    Robert Richardson for the Liberal Democrats said the new House of Commons needed as many of his MP's as possible as to put a break on both parties saying the 2011 & 2013 Conservative landslides had been "bad for good government", while defence of the European Union and the UK remaining in it was passionate.

    Robert Webster for the NPP was the most natural despite being an MP since 2011, the debate and it's status is something he has craved for over twenty years and which until now has been denied to him. He has been helped by the collapse of the National Democrats, but he did well with his "you all laughed at me, said I was a scaremonger when I brought up immigration in 2004, I was racist when I spoke about the threat of Islamic extremism, and was a "Little Englander", when I spoke out against the European Union and the threat of a super state, well I speak for the ordinary people up and down this great country who are tired of being told by the political class what is best for them, those people now have a voice".

    The most extraordinary moment of the debate was the exchange between Webster and Galloway. The two men clearly despise each other with a passion, and when Galloway accused Webster of "hating immigrants and everyone who wasn't white" adding "you are a pound shop racist", Webster struck back "hate you say, the only person here tonight that uses that word on a regular basis is you. It's "Hate the Tories, Hate Labour, Hate the Monarchy, Hate the Bankers, Hate the bosses, Hate the Jews, as for being a fascist the only person that uses fascist language is you".

    For Patrick Rackett, Karen Kilgore & Llewellyn Rees-Jones they didn't get much of say other than mostly the same thing that it's "Tory Cuts" that have created as Kilgore put it a "false economy".

    There was no knock-out blow, but Robert Webster is now a serious player, his party are ahead of the Liberal Democrats in the polls and his performance last night did not harm his hopes of becoming the third party in the House of Commons after the election.The result of the election does not seem in any real doubt, Labour has far two much ground to make up in terms of seats to have any hope of winning this time, all Benn can do is hope Labour can get into the lean of the Conservative majority and reduce it down as far as she can, whilst the other question is can the NPP make the real breakthrough they have been after, and outperform both the Liberal Democrats in terms of the popular vote and seats in the new House of Commons.
     
    Last edited: Aug 12, 2018 at 1:09 PM
  2. heatmaster Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2015
    There were a few typos in the info boxes! firstly in the 1998 election, Bartlet has 303, Eisenhower has 255 electoral votes, so unless there is 558 votes in the electoral votes, which would be silly. in the 2002 election you have Bartlet with 394 to Ritchie at Ritchie at 148, and in the 2010 Info box, you have Walken at 331 EV to Santos at 228, I think you need to put Walken at 310, Ritchie at 144 and Eisenhower at 235. Also where does one locate said Info boxes? They would be helpful in political project I am currently involved in.
     
  3. disputed Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2009
    washingtonpost.com, Friday August 10th

    The Mix, Senate Line

    10. Ohio (R): Dylan Garrison seems to be finding his feet finally. Having survived a brutal primary with conservative challenger Chet Logan he walked straight into a fight with a more left wing populist in former State Auditor Wendy Stapleton. It seemed to take Garrison some time to pivot but he is now polling comfortably ahead of Stapleton. The Presidential race will likely tighten things in what will be the swingiest of swing states come November but Garrison looks safe.

    9. Indiana (D): Senator Rudi Robinson is facing a tougher than expected fight with Lt. Governor Kris Jennings. Robinson enjoyed a prolonged run for the White House and has had to play catch-up in terms of his home race. Indiana will be tough sledding for Democrats in a Presidential year, Robinson’s approval isn’t especially great (and being furthered undermined by Jennings’ incessant attacks on the Senator for “using” his position to focus on future Presidential runs). Polling is tight but the incumbent is, for now, ahead.

    8. Minnesota (R): State Public Safety Commissioner Lara Mansfield has taken to Gubernatorial politics beautifully and the ad she continues to run around Joh Roscoe’s indecision about which party he belongs to is an all time classic. Roscoe has an incumbent’s advantage but he’s not overly popular with Republicans let along independents and Democrats and there is certainly a path for Mansfield. The presence of the State’s Junior Senator on the Republican Party Presidential ticket is likely to be a big help to Roscoe.

    7. Wisconsin (R): The race in Wisconsin is going to go down to the wire and is playing out to be every bit as contentious as everyone predicted when former talk show host Nate Bradshaw won the Democratic nomination. Bradshaw, and his Congresswoman wife Nicole Henderson have come under fire from all angles – most notably after their former nanny claimed that they hadn’t seen their children for almost two months due to campaigning and TV commitments. Incumbent Nolan Kinnaird is a wily campaigner and is putting up a serious fight – Bradshaw will need something to shift in his favor if he’s going to come out on top.

    6. Arizona (R): Incumbent Louise McDonald finally swallowed her pride and endorsed former talk show host Henry Stern, but it all seemed somewhat half-hearted. Stern continues to defy his critics and poll at worst level with Congressman Tony McMichael who has appeared flat footed by Stern’s relentless focus on immigration. Stern has belatedly tried to expand his platform but in truth it doesn’t matter – this race is more or less going to be a referendum on building a 30 foot wall to separate the state from Sonora and Baja California, for now, yes is ahead.

    5. Florida (R): Congresswoman Alicia DeSantos is starting to look like she might finally be the one to knock off one of Washington’s great survivors. Incumbent Seth Randall is struggling amidst a myriad of challenges. His voting record is a constant source of ammunition for the moderate DeSantos, who enjoyed a joint appearance with Democratic nominee Sam Seaborn over the weekend. Randall, however, has been counted out before and has a history of coming on strong late in the day. Expect buckets of negativity from the Republican and a flood of national money as the Presidential race ramps up.

    4. Virginia (D): The DSCC were ecstatic when a flood of liberal firebrands secured victory in 2012 but it presents a big problem this year. The top four races on this list range from lost causes to very tough holds for the party. In Virginia Brandon Jefferies has proven a more able Senator than his long shot status but his opponent, former Governor Rob Buchanan, has name recognition, is well funded and is polling ahead. Minority Leader Arthur Breech campaigned alongside Jeffries last week and all expectations suggest that a flood of national figures will appear in the commonwealth between now and November.

    3. West Virginia (D): Democrats are facing a very tough year with a number of races they surprisingly won in 2012 coming home to roost. They had hoped that AG Sam Hedrick wouldn’t run but in truth there are 5 or 6 Republicans who would likely defeat unpopular incumbent Michael Higgins who was always too liberal for the state he represents. Hedrick probably couldn’t believe his luck last week when Higgins used a Capitol Beat appearance to say “we need to move on from coal”.

    2. Montana (D): 76 year old George Wirth is well on his way to returning to Washington for what would be a 5th term in the Senate (as well as 3 in the House). He retired six years ago but didn’t take to it and is well on track to defeat Stephanie Leary who shockingly replaced him in 2012.

    1. North Dakota (D): It’s probably best if Jay Mattock seeks alternative employment with a start date of next January. Governor Jamie Muller’s lead is only increasing.
     
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  4. Marky Bunny Well-Known Member

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    Yes, I had noticed that. Ritchie did win Florida in 2002, but the map shows Bartlet.
     
  5. Marky Bunny Well-Known Member

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    Other than those small errors, they still looked bloody great.
     
  6. Marky Bunny Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2007
    Location:
    England
    NPP Leader Robert Webster arriving at the first TV debate hosted by ITV in Manchester last night. Most on-line polls show him as the joint winner of the debate with the Prime-Minister.
    [​IMG]
    (Photo by Anthony Head previous casting from 2013)
     
  7. disputed Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 20, 2009
    washingtonpost.com, Friday August 10th

    The Mix, Governors Line

    10. Indiana (R): Congressman Matthew Stillman rode the endorsement of Kansas Governor Peter Gault all the way to the nomination and with the help of a highly contentious Democratic primary that saw Congresswoman Anne Coleman shock former State First Lady Libby Buckland has established a solid lead that looks likely to keep Indianapolis red come November. Coleman was hurt further by prolonged newspaper coverage of Mrs. Buckland’s refusal to support her primary opponent.

    9. Louisiana (R): Kevin Haynes, the Secretary of State, is looking more and more like the man to hold the state for the GOP – a feat that looked a long way off before the withdrawal of Congressman Sam Callis. Weldon Prater, the former Mayor of New Orleans has struggled in the early going and is desperate need of a re-launch if he is to prevent Haynes pulling away.

    8. Wisconsin (R): Attorney General Mike Holliday has managed to embroil himself in a battle over affirmative action after his wife (and Senior Advisor) admitted they ignored administration guidelines when hiring staff. Lt. Governor Mark Croft is the Republican nominee and is staying true to the idea of not interrupting your opponent when he’s making a mistake and has stayed quiet as the Holliday’s have tied themselves in knots. The end result appears to be that Croft has pulled level and may have a better chance of holiday the Governor’s mansion for the GOP than many expected.

    7. Nevada (D): The race in Nevada is looking like the tightest battle we’ll see in November. Congressman Jay Cano has steadily eroded Lt. Governor Dalton Creel’s lead and almost every poll has the race a statistical tie. Cano has navigated a scandal connected to an Indiana Casino and Creel’s early appeal seems to have slowed leading to an ever increasing focus on negativity from both sides – expect that to escalate as we head closer to polling day.

    6. Georgia (D): Attorney General Jeremy Jefferson looks set to become the next Governor of the Peach State. Democratic nominee Gillian Wallace is doing all she can and 3rd Party candidate Stoker Hansen is running interference but Jefferson’s lead is holding and it is more than likely to be enough.

    5. Iowa (R): Democratic nominee James Edwards is looking increasingly well placed to unseat Carl York. The debate over York's attempt to promote a constitutional amendment banning gay marriage and his support of a group who promote reversion therapy for LGBT citizens have led to significant protests outside the state house. The division is likely to boost turnout on both sides in November, and coupled with a Presidential ballot is going to make things interesting but for now Edwards is enjoying a bigger than expected lead.

    4. Colorado (R): The GOP nominee Wade Barton has found his attempts to bury his past to be an almost full time job since he surprisingly won the Primary. His most controversial statement (we won’t replay it here) on inner city poverty resulted in Governor Oliver Moseley refusing to endorse him. The former Mayor of Denver, Lance McKey, probably has to simply count down the days to election day.

    3. New Mexico (I): Congressman Will Diego has pulled ahead of. Congressman Henry Riker in the race to replace controversial independent Governor Rudi Vansen. Diego enjoyed a visit by former President Matthew Santos last week – a sign of Diego’s promise as a potential national figure. Riker is reportedly pleading with his party to send some national reinforcements but for now Diego is starting to look like a good bet.

    2. New York (R): Governor Rob Cole has tried, he truly has. A hostile legislature has made it near impossible for him to move his agenda forward and baring the kind of epic collapse that seen him stun Matthew Lewis four years ago, Attorney General Hakeem El-Amin will win this race in November. El-Amin hasn’t lived up to his “rising star” positioning as of yet but he has a solid poll lead, a formidable organization combined with a state party desperate to reset the established order in the Empire State.

    1. Montana (D): State Representative Rachel Riles is fighting admirably to succeed her closer friend and mentor Kurt Carner, but alas she lacks the gravitas and name recognition that catapulted Carner into the Governor’s mansion. State Auditor Monty Fisher, the GOP nominee, enjoys a 20 point poll lead that looks all but certain to see him succeed Carner.
     
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  8. heatmaster Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2015
    Any word on where I can source those infoboxes?
     
  9. lord caedus Blue Wave Rising Donor

    Joined:
    Oct 31, 2008
    Location:
    Minnesota
    All of those are fixed now

    Wait, Riker and Diego are the gubernatorial candidates in New Mexico?

    Guess I'll have to edit the spreadsheets and a few of the House articles I did earlier.

    What do you mean "source" them?
     
  10. heatmaster Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2015
    Where do I find them! is there an address where I can get them? They have been used on this site countless times, including the info of every election from 1986 through 2014.
     
  11. Excelsior Time's arrow marches forward

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    Gazing into the 321st century, man
    You have to make the infoboxes on Wikipedia.
     
  12. lord caedus Blue Wave Rising Donor

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    Oct 31, 2008
    Location:
    Minnesota
    Right. I made all of these in Wikipedia's sandbox feature and edited in the photos and map with Paint.NET and Inkscape, respectively.

    They aren't online except as images here (and technically on Imgur, where the image is hosted).
     
  13. heatmaster Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2015
    Thanks for heads-up
     
  14. KingCrawa Prayed for by a brace of Monks

    Joined:
    Jan 13, 2015
    I mean you have to understand basically all the information not included in the show - Congressman, who Bartlet defeated in 98 the whole shebang - has been made up here out of the clear blue sky
     
  15. heatmaster Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2015
    Of course and a good job too! It's interesting how you developed the characters and the storyline as well. It's a pity that Aaron Sorkin & the other members of the West Wing production team didn't do a West Wing Spin-off dealing exclusively with the Presidency from the perspective of the Republican's, either during the presidencies from Owen Lassiter or GlenAllen Walken, as it was, there was a pro-Democratic viewpoint during the show. I think John Goodman in the role of Walken would have been highly entertaining. Ah well, not to be. But keep up the work. I can imagine the kind of outcome you have planned for the 2018 contest.
     
  16. mspence Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Jul 1, 2018
    They were apparently going to have Vinick win but John Spencer & his character Leo McGarry both died & they thought it would be too much for the show if Santos lost both the election & his running mate.
     
  17. Marky Bunny Well-Known Member

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    There is another version of the story that says it was always going be Santos but because Vinick proved to be such a well-written Republican character that it made them think twice, but then John Spencer died as soon they had to kill off Leo in the story and that would be too much for Santos.

    For a story view point a Vinick Presidency as a TV show would have opened up the show, also there would have been an interesting dynamic in the fact there would have no First Lady because of course Vinick was a widower.
     
  18. heatmaster Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Sep 18, 2015
    Yes It would have been interesting, Alan Alda would have been interesting as a TV.president, I think Brett Cullen in his role as Ray Sullivan as Vice-President would have done wonders. The Matt Santos character launching a rematch contest, with Josh Lyman in the role of Campaign manager would show us Lyman in the outsider role. Doing a Sam Seaborn storyline in the show, running for and being elected to Senate in 2010. I always thought that a more permanent Seaborn & Mallory O'Brien dynamic (Leo's) daughter would have added sizzle to the show. I can see that when Rob Lowe left the show there was little to do with the Mallory character. Still she would have been a perfect foil, I can see that the writer's were probably trying to expand on the relationship between Sam & Mallory. Jed & Leo would have approved. I can't understand why Lowe quit, it sure as hell was not a career booster.
     
  19. Marky Bunny Well-Known Member

    Joined:
    Mar 13, 2007
    Location:
    England
    [​IMG]
    BBC.CO.UK/Politics
    Tuesday August 14th 2018
    General Election Polling
    Conservative: 38% (-2) 349 seats
    Labour: 28% (-3) 239 seats
    NPP: 17% (+6) 13 seats
    Liberal Democrats: 8% (-1) 16 seats
    Socialist Alliance 2% (n/c) 1 seat
    Green 2% (n.c) 0 seats
    SNP: 2.5% (n/c)10 Seats
    PC: 0.5% (n/c) 3 Seats
    Speaker: N/A 1 Seat
    Northern Ireland: 18 seats

    Conservative Majority: 48 Seats

    Overall National Swing: From Conservative to Labour: 4.13%


     
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  20. Marky Bunny Well-Known Member

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    [​IMG]
    Wednesday August 15th 2018

    Burke confirms "No Presidential run"

    Former Alabama Governor Wesley Burke has ended months of speculation and announced that he will not be seeking the Presidency as an independent. Burke had always said that if his friend Kansas Governor Peter Gault failed to win the Republican nomination that he would run as an independent but in the three weeks since Henry Shallick secured the GOP Presidential nomination he has come under increasing pressure not to run.

    Peter Gault we understand has spoken to his friend several times and asked him not to run, as have South Carolina Governor Ethan Butler and Georgia Senator Charlie Forrester.

    In a press statement released this afternoon, Burke admitted "I was tempted to run, but my friend Peter Gault has persuaded me not to run, although on some issues I disagree with Henry Shallick he will make a far better President than Sam Seaborn ever would, and if I ran it would make a Seaborn Presidency more likely".
     
    Last edited: Aug 16, 2018 at 5:49 AM