1982 Midterms Flip the Senate to Democratic control

[Electric Monk]

By my count there are five and a half winnable Senate races. The scenario is simple: with the economy doing worse and/or a big Reagan screw-up of whatever sort, Reagan tumbles to his OTL January 1983 low of 35% a few months earlier ITTL during early November right at the 1982 midterms. This is not helpful.

Mark Dayton pulls it out in Minnesota. Given his future electoral record he’s obviously great at it. Let’s say things go right instead of wrong, he squeaks out a victory aided by Mondale. The main reach of this scenario, given the larger margin between candidates.

Harriet Woods is successful in Missouri as she so nearly was IOTL.

Howard Cannon in Neveda manages a narrow victory, as he almost did despite his many problems IOTL.

Julius Michaelson takes out Chafee in Rhode Island.

James A. Guest (great name) wins in Vermont.

Richard Davis in Virginia wins.

Either 51 or 52 Democratic Senators.

By my count 8-18 more seats to pick up in the House, with 8 being by far the likeliest number, this is a medium swing extended not a huge one. That makes the House 276-286 against 158-148. (Fun fact: Bob Burger—secret namesake of the show?—was a failed Democratic nominee in the Pennsylvania 5th with just 32.8%.)

So. The Reagan Revolution is badly derailed. What happens? Both the Administration and their major plans and of course the 1984 race because Dems with both houses get to claim credit for the improved economy too & with Reagan seeming weaker earlier entry into the primaries is far more inviting…

 

[David T]

So. The Reagan Revolution is badly derailed.

Is it? The biggest Reagan economic measure--the tax cuts--is already law, and not only don't the Democrats have a veto-proof majority to repeal it--they probably don't have any majority at all for repeal. In *The Almanac of American Politics 1984* I found that the following Democrats in the Senate after the 1982 election who had voted in 1981 for the Reagan tax cuts *and* the first Reagan budget: Heflin, DeConcini, Pryor, Chiles, Inouye, Mastsunaga, Dixon, Huddleston, Ford, Long, Johnston, Mitchell, Stennis, Melcher, Baucus, Zorinsky, Exxon, Burdick, Glenn, Boren, Sasser, Bentsen, Jackson, Byrd, and Proxmire. Now of course some of them may have changed their minds by 1983, but probably not enough to get repeal through the Senate, let alone past a veto.

 

[Pericles]

Democrats win all seats lost by a 4% margin or less.
1982 Senate elections
Robert Byrd-Democratic: 51+6 56.1%
Howard Baker-Republican: 49-5
Independent: 0-1
100 seats
51 for majority

Missouri: Harriet Woods(D) defeats incumbent John Danforth(R)
Nevada: Incumbent Howard Cannon(D) defeats Chic Hecht(R)
Rhode Island: Julius C Michaelson(D) defeats incumbent John Chafee(R)
Vermont: James A Guest(D) defeats incumbent Robert Stafford(R)
Virginia: Richard Joseph Davis(D) defeats Paul S Trible Jr(R)

 

[Apollo 20]

You can also have Toby Moffett defeat Lowell Weicker in Connecticut. It was one of the better races that year and the final margin was 4.3%. One effect here is to toss a sizable chunk of the GOP moderates out. Danforth, Chaffee, Stafford and Weicker were substantial moderating forces in the GOP Caucus. Take them out and you might have a more confrontational GOP minority causing more trouble than the GOP majority did. One thing to remember here is that many of the moderate Republicans were more to the left than Democrats like Zorinsky, Randolph, Burdick or Exon. It was a different Senate back then, hence the possibility of a counterintuitive result.

 

[Colonel Zoidberg]

Reagan still wins in 1984 but not nearly as resoundingly, the Democrats hold Congress, and Reagan is remembered much as Obama OTL - he wins early in his term but is bogged down the rest of the way. The 1981 tax cut is his Obamacare but the 1986 tax cut is averted.

 

[SsgtC]

Reagan still wins in 1984 but not nearly as resoundingly, the Democrats hold Congress, and Reagan is remembered much as Obama OTL - he wins early in his term but is bogged down the rest of the way. The 1981 tax cut is his Obamacare but the 1986 tax cut is averted.

I don't see this. Politics were different then. The extreme partisanship we saw during the second Bush administration and Obama's time in office weren't there during Regan's Time in the White House. People were much more willing to cross the aisle to get things done then. Even during Bush Jr's adminstration, he had a Democratic controlled Congress for much of it and he was still able to get large portions of his agenda through Congress. Despite the increasing level of partisanship. Regan would likely be able to do the same. Obviously not nearly to the extent of OTL, but it would still be more than Obama was able to.

 

[Colonel Zoidberg]

I don't see this. Politics were different then. The extreme partisanship we saw during the second Bush administration and Obama's time in office weren't there during Regan's Time in the White House. People were much more willing to cross the aisle to get things done then. Even during Bush Jr's adminstration, he had a Democratic controlled Congress for much of it and he was still able to get large portions of his agenda through Congress. Despite the increasing level of partisanship. Regan would likely be able to do the same. Obviously not nearly to the extent of OTL, but it would still be more than Obama was able to.

If he does get things done, it will almost certainly be watered down. The drastic tax cut in 1986 won't look a thing like OTL, and he will have exactly one landmark piece of legislation early in his first term to hang his hat on. So...Obama lite.

 

[David T]

There were indeed still numerous moderate Republicans in Congress in 1983, but by then they had moved somewhat to the right on economic issues. (Social issues were another matter, and on things like abortion, moderate Republicans were to the left of many Democrats.) Even the most liberal Republican in the House, Bill Green https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/S._William_Green voted for the Reagan economic program in 1981.

 

[SsgtC]

If he does get things done, it will almost certainly be watered down. The drastic tax cut in 1986 won't look a thing like OTL, and he will have exactly one landmark piece of legislation early in his first term to hang his hat on. So...Obama lite.

Oh, no argument it would be watered down. But we wouldn't see anywhere near the gridlock that we saw with Obama once Congress flipped Republican. Looking at Regan within this ATL, her would still be seen as successful more often than not. And we wouldn't know it was watered down

 

[Colonel Zoidberg]

Oh, no argument it would be watered down. But we wouldn't see anywhere near the gridlock that we saw with Obama once Congress flipped Republican. Looking at Regan within this ATL, her would still be seen as successful more often than not. And we wouldn't know it was watered down

No doubt he would be seen as more successful, especially upon leaving office; Reagan was as smooth as teflon whereas Obama was smooth but not that smooth. And yes, there was a lot more gridlock in Congress - the GOP got very good at gumming up the system by 2010, and Obama couldn't work Congress like Reagan could.

 

[Pericles]

Democrats win all seats lost by a 4% margin or less.
1982 Senate elections
Robert Byrd-Democratic: 51+6 56.1%
Howard Baker-Republican: 49-5
Independent: 0-1
100 seats
51 for majority

Missouri: Harriet Woods(D) defeats incumbent John Danforth(R)
Nevada: Incumbent Howard Cannon(D) defeats Chic Hecht(R)
Rhode Island: Julius C Michaelson(D) defeats incumbent John Chafee(R)
Vermont: James A Guest(D) defeats incumbent Robert Stafford(R)
Virginia: Richard Joseph Davis(D) defeats Paul S Trible Jr(R)

In this scenario, the Washington Senate special election on November 3, 1983 following Scoop Jackson's death would flip back control to the Republicans(Republicans won it by 10.8%, far greater than the 4% swing here.)

 

[Pericles]

The 4% swing would also be pretty grim for Republicans at the House and state level. Even their own minority leader loses.
1982 House elections
Tip O'Neill-Democratic: 283+ 40 57.2%
Bob Michel(lost seat)-Republican: 152-40 41.4%
435 seats
218 for majority

Alabama 2: Billy Joe Camp(D) defeats incumbent William Louis Dickinson(R)
Connecticut 6: William E Curry Jr(D) defeats Nancy Johnson(R)
Florida 9: George H Seldon(D) defeats Michael Bilirakis(R)
Illinois 18: G Douglas Stephens(D) defeats incumbent Bob Michel(R)
Indiana 3: Richard Clay Bodine(D) defeats incumbent John P Hiler(R)
Maine 1: John M Kerry(D) defeats John R McKernan Jr(R)
Minnesota 7: Gene Wernstrom(D) defeats incumbent Arlan Stangeland(R)
Mississippi 2: Robert G Clark(D) defeats Webb Franklin(R)
Missouri 7: David A Geisler(D) defeats incumbent Gene Taylor(R)
Ohio 12: Incumbent Bob Shamansky(D) defeats John Kasich(R)
Oregon 5: Ruth McFarland(D) defeats incumbent Denny Smith(R)
Pennsylvania 21: Anthony Andrezeski(D) defeats Tom Ridge(R)
Tennessee 7: Bob Clement(D) defeats Don Sundquist(R)
Virginia 8: Herbert Harris(D) defeats incumbent Stanford E Parris(R)
1982 gubernatorial elections
Democratic: 37+10
Republican: 13-10

California: Tom Bradley(D) defeats George Deukmejian(R)
Illinois: Adlai Stevenson III(D) defeats incumbent James R Thompson(R)
Pennsylvania: Allen E Ertel(D) defeats incumbent Dick Thornburgh(R)

 

[Galba Otho Vitelius]

There is a large number of minor butterflies to this result, the biggest one being no Clarence Thomas on the Supreme Court. But what turned out to be a number of other long congressional careers and gubernatorial administrations get derailed.

 

[Insculpo]

No doubt he would be seen as more successful, especially upon leaving office; Reagan was as smooth as teflon whereas Obama was smooth but not that smooth. And yes, there was a lot more gridlock in Congress - the GOP got very good at gumming up the system by 2010, and Obama couldn't work Congress like Reagan could.

I think Obama would be perceived as more successful in a Hillary victory.

For Reagan to be viewed as less successful you'd need something outlandish like Jessie Jackson winning in 1988... After 8 years of Reagan. Think how much a whiplash that would have been.