85%? What are you counting as disrupted?
Yes. 85%. That’s the figure given by Voznensky for factories that were either “lost/captured or out of order” in 1941. Further German advances in ‘42 also set off a second round of losses, evacuations, and disruptions. Even in the latter case where a factory was out of order because of evacuation, it could take years before production was restarted, depending on the factory and the priority it received. There’s the case of a munitions factory evacuated in 1941 not restarting production until the start of ‘43 and didn’t reach pre-war capacity until the end of the year. I’m not even factoring in how the loss of major resource stockpiles also affected production.
Also who is to say that a later invasion without Britain in the war wouldn't see similar levels of destruction/disruption?
Well, for a ‘42 Barbarossa, given the improvements the Red Army would make in it’s rearmament and reform program would render it possible to blunt the German invasion down to an attritional slugfest in the frontier region, which obviously leaves Soviet industry rather untouched. A ‘41 invasion is, obviously, a much more iffy affair and avoiding some degree of industrial disruption and destruction is impossible then even if the Soviets handle Barbarossa better (and it’s entirely possible they don’t).
I’m just assuming for the moment Soviets do manage to dodge the damage, however they do it being beside the point.
Aid may just end up being cash and carry like it was for Britain and it was for the USSR until October 1941 per US law. Britain might well just sit back and watch while retaining equipment for itself other than what the Soviets want to buy from them.
Strictly speaking, the Soviets were never subjected to cash-and-carry and a lot of American aid given to them in June-September was never paid for. In some cases lend-lease was retroactively applied to them and in other cases the law was just ignored. Whether that would be the case or not ATL is dependent on a number of issues, some under Soviet/German control and some not, but I’m just observing it could happen.