Lands of Red and Gold, Act II

[Jared]

50%+ death rate for combined epidemics is no fun, but, yes, they were 'fortunate' (as you say, to the extent such a word can be used in such a situation), as Native Americans sometimes had 90% die offs with repeated waves of various diseases iOTL. iTTL, the latter will be even worse off, as they have the 3rd World diseases to cope with as well as Eurasian ones.

Yes, there is a certain morbid irony in being able to call the eventual 50+% death rate as "lucky". Only when compared to their relatives in OTL, of course, but still...

For clarity (since I realised I may not have been completely clear), 50+% of the pre-contact population will be the eventual death toll of all the combined epidemics. It's not quite there yet. The total epidemics before the Great Death (chickenpox, mumps etc) killed 25% of the pre-contact population. There was a little population growth in between (a decade or more's worth, depending on region), and then the Great Death killed 25-30% of the lower population. In terms of the pre-contact population, the net effect is approximately 45% loss.

Of course, there's still influenza (over most of the continent), smallpox, typhoid, and a cluster of "lesser" illnesses like diphtheria, pertussis (whooping cough), etc which have not even hit yet. The total death toll is going to be even higher. Perhaps 65-70% of precontact population, depending on society.

And despite all of that, as you say, they're still better off than the Native Americans, who were hit worse in OTL and will be hit even harder ITTL. Plus a few other groups such as Pacific Islanders who will also be hit even worse.

Stupid disease, always ruining everything.

It's a tragedy, but not one which is realistically avoidable in this or any timeline dealing with contact between the Old World and societies without those diseases. Unless contact could be held off until the invention of mass vaccination (pretty much an ASB enterprise), the consequences are always going to be horrific.

I think I've gone about as far as I plausibly can in making the epidemics slightly less severe.

Excellent, if harrowing, stuff, Jared. I was wondering when we'd see Ashkettle and Clements again.

It was tough but necessary to write.

Ashkettle and Clements were always going to reemerge around now, when the Great Death hit. They will probably pop up in a variety of other places, depending on what I find useful to frame things, but the two next places where I have definite plans for their appearance (including bits sketched out) are the Hunter's crusades, and then later the Aururian front during the Nine Years' War (1740s/1750s, approximately).

Isn't that level of die back pretty much going to shatter any society?

Place under severe strain and lead to local depopulation, certainly. Not necessarily collapse entirely. Some almost certainly will; others will probably hold on, at least from internal pressures.

The individual death toll from any particular plague is about the same as that of the Antonine Plagues in the Roman Empire. That caused all sorts of problems, of course, but didn't lead to the shattering of the Roman Empire.

The cumulative death toll is roughly on par with the Black Death in Europe. While that led to local depopulation (villages being abandoned, etc), widespread persecutions of minorities (such as Jews), increase in violence, etc, it didn't lead to wholescale social collapse. In places like Italy, the death toll was probably even higher (60-80% in the cities, probably less in the countryside), and again it didn't create complete social collapse. The Black Death didn't even do more than cause a slight lull in the Hundred Years' War; England was back to invading France within half a decade of the peak of the Black Death there.

The big problems are two-fold: they're taking this level of depopulation while being an increasingly desired target for European colonialism; and the plagues are a long way from finished yet. This was the individual worst plague overall, but there's sitll more to come.

I did a quick google, and it looks like rabbinical usage is to require a 'tradition' of birds being kosher before they can they can be considered kosher, or that they be the same as something already kosher. So, no Emu won't be kosher. Unfortunately.

So how the blip did turkey end up Kosher?

I understand that the turkey is not universally considered kosher, although many authorities do permit it. Going from very limited memory, I think I heard that the turkey was considered like enough to a guineafowl to be considered kosher.

So all TTL needs is for someone to decide that emu is just a very very big guineafowl, and we're good to go.

 

[Archangel]

This update hints there's at least one modern Aururian state in TTL 1940's.

 

[Dathi THorfinnsson]

So how the blip did turkey end up Kosher?

What I read is that it basically snuck in under the radar as it were, and was eaten long enough that suddenly making it treyf would be difficult. So various ASB explanations were contrived. Basically, it seems that it really, REALLY shouldn't be.

 

[mojojojo]

the spinning of the greatest work of fiction since vows of wifely obedience were included in the Gunnagalic marriage service –

So just what are those vows? and why are they considered fiction?

 

[Gwenc'hlan]

So just what are those vows? and why are they considered fiction?

I think it's a reference to the commonness of adultery in Gunnagal society (which seems to be in line with what we know about them).

Very good couple of updates, Aururians have already show their resilience but this does seem like a lot to cope with : will the dutch start to import Javanese and African workers in Atjuntja in the gold mines?
Keep up the good work!

 

[eschaton]

Very good couple of updates, Aururians have already show their resilience but this does seem like a lot to cope with : will the dutch start to import Javanese and African workers in Atjuntja in the gold mines?

Malagasy is my guess. As I said earlier, the ocean currents work out excellently for a Madagascar to Western Aururia trade route. All we need is a reason for labor in Western Aururia, and this provides for it.

 

[Jared]

This update hints there's at least one modern Aururian state in TTL 1940's.

For given values of "modern", "Aururian" and "state".

(If that last one doesn't make sense, think about the quotes from the Nationalist Manifesto and what's been mentioned about panollidism in the post before this one.)

More generally, there's already been various hints about the future of Tjagarr Panipat. It's certainly a respected intellectual institution in the modern era. Make of that what you will.

So just what are those vows? and why are they considered fiction?

I think it's a reference to the commonness of adultery in Gunnagal society (which seems to be in line with what we know about them).

This is for vows of obedience, not fidelity.

It's a reference to the legendary argumentativeness of the Gunnagal. The idea of a Gunnagalic wife actually obeying her husband, rather than arguing about something - well, everything - is laughable. At least according to popular ATL stereotypes.

Hence, including vows of wifely obedience in the Gunnagalic marriage service would best be considered a polite fiction.

Very good couple of updates, Aururians have already show their resilience but this does seem like a lot to cope with : will the dutch start to import Javanese and African workers in Atjuntja in the gold mines?

Short answer: yes. There's an obviously pressing need for labour even before the Great Death. Afterwards...

Longer answer: slave imports are not only useful for the Dutch in themselves, as they give more access to gold (and potentially other slave-grown crops). They also give a very valuable lever over the King of Kings: once the plague-battered Atjuntja economy starts to rely on imported slave labour, that gives the VOC the real control.

Malagasy is my guess. As I said earlier, the ocean currents work out excellently for a Madagascar to Western Aururia trade route. All we need is a reason for labor in Western Aururia, and this provides for it.

Malagasy are the most promising of available options, assuming that the Dutch can get access to that market.

It not, then the Dutch would look at other alternatives.

What I read is that it basically snuck in under the radar as it were, and was eaten long enough that suddenly making it treyf would be difficult. So various ASB explanations were contrived. Basically, it seems that it really, REALLY shouldn't be.

So, what we need is a group of Jews somewhere who find eating emus so useful that no-one questions them until it's too late? Perhaps in some hot, semiarid land somewhere that finds such a drought-adapted, overgrown chicken a useful staple...

 

[Chosen_Chaos]

or alternatively, the spinning of the greatest work of fiction since vows of wifely obedience were included in the Gunnagalic marriage service –

Is this a deliberate Blackadder reference, or just a happy coincidence?

 

[Falecius]

So, what we need is a group of Jews somewhere who find eating emus so useful that no-one questions them until it's too late? Perhaps in some hot, semiarid land somewhere that finds such a drought-adapted, overgrown chicken a useful staple...

Yemen comes to mind.

 

[mojojojo]

So, what we need is a group of Jews somewhere who find eating emus so useful that no-one questions them until it's too late? Perhaps in some hot, semiarid land somewhere that finds such a drought-adapted, overgrown chicken a useful staple...

Is that foreshadowing I smell

 

[Jared]

Is this a deliberate Blackadder reference, or just a happy coincidence?

No LoRaG post is complete without at least one allusion to the Black Vegetable.

Yemen comes to mind.

It certainly has a suitable arid texture, with a certain gritty taste overlaid with hints of dust and sand.

Is that foreshadowing I smell

The nice thing about making cryptic comments is that they can be taken as either a subtle whiff of foreshadowing or a slight sniff of evasiveness.

 

[eschaton]

Malagasy are the most promising of available options, assuming that the Dutch can get access to that market.

It not, then the Dutch would look at other alternatives.

It strikes me that, regardless, the Cape-to-White City (or therabouts) trade route will be highly profitable compared to OTL, which means a much earlier settlement of the Mascarene Islands and perhaps the Seychelles compared to OTL. The Dutch will be the ones to settle them ITTL (if for no other reason than to deny the islands as a base for pirates initially) which will likely lead to an entirely different odd cultural mix on these islands than happened IOTL.

I do also wonder if the Kerguelen Islands will have a bit more of a role ITTL than IOTL, as they also find themselves near a much more important trade route. Not that they would ever have a substantial settlement mind you, but the climate there is not much worse than the Falklands, which managed to develop its own indigenous culture IOTL. Maybe a few thousand Dutch-speaking settlers of mixed-ethnic background, eking out a living on Murnong and sheep herding.

 

[Jared]

It strikes me that, regardless, the Cape-to-White City (or therabouts) trade route will be highly profitable compared to OTL, which means a much earlier settlement of the Mascarene Islands and perhaps the Seychelles compared to OTL. The Dutch will be the ones to settle them ITTL (if for no other reason than to deny the islands as a base for pirates initially) which will likely lead to an entirely different odd cultural mix on these islands than happened IOTL.

Yes, the "Cape to Cape" route (Cape of Good Hope to *Cape Leeuwin, more or less) will be a major trade route. The commodities produced in the Atjuntja realm itself will probably decline over time; over-exploitation (for sandalwood) and declining labour supply even with slave imports (for gold, sweet peppers, and minor spices). Nevertheless, it will remain as a vital way-station on longer-range trade routes to the rest of Aururia and points beyond (the traditional Spice Islands, perhaps Aotearoa).

As to who seizes the islands, well... I haven't worked out if the Dutch have already taken them. If not, the French will also be seeking to do so; they have a need for resupply points of their own when voyaging to the east, and have started their active "Oriental" efforts earlier than in OTL. In all probability, different countries may take over the Mascarenes, in particular, from each other several times. The Seychelles are useful, but less vital in terms of the main sea routes.

I do also wonder if the Kerguelen Islands will have a bit more of a role ITTL than IOTL, as they also find themselves near a much more important trade route. Not that they would ever have a substantial settlement mind you, but the climate there is not much worse than the Falklands, which managed to develop its own indigenous culture IOTL. Maybe a few thousand Dutch-speaking settlers of mixed-ethnic background, eking out a living on Murnong and sheep herding.

At the risk of getting ahead of the story, the first people to find the Kerguelens won't be European. The first discovery of the Kerguelens will be by one of the ships in Korowal's (southern hemisphere) voyage to circumnavigate the world, which had been blown off course in rough weather while the other ships sailed further north. (Korowal's voyage was touched on briefly in post #70 which introduced Act II).

Of course, first discovery does not mean settlement or anything else. The climate is extremely marginal even for murnong, and while people could raise sheep if they really had to, those islands are rather bleak, to say the least. Perhaps some people will be determined enough to settle there - maybe.

 

[mojojojo]

Jared, you let us know that this TL will develop sci-fi and fantasy, animated cartoons and roll playing games. However, do graphic novels/comic books exist

 

[Jared]

Jared, you let us know that this TL will develop sci-fi and fantasy, animated cartoons and roll playing games. However, do graphic novels/comic books exist

They would exist in some form; the basic idea is obvious enough that the market will be exploited sooner or later.

Of course, they may necessarily look much like OTL's version. Any form which does closely resemble OTL's version would be much more popular in monist states than in panollidist states.

 

[mojojojo]

Any form which does closely resemble OTL's version would be much more popular in monist states than in panollidist states.

How so

 

[Jared]

How so

Because monism as an ideology is broadly more compatible with the underlying ethos of many comics than panollidism [1] would be. Although, to be clearer, I was mostly thinking of the superhero and related styles of comic books. Some other styles of comic books would probably be more acceptable.

[1] Or more precisely, panollidism or other ideologies which spring from the same general sources.

 

[Jaydoh]

Because monism as an ideology is broadly more compatible with the underlying ethos of many comics than panollidism [1] would be. Although, to be clearer, I was mostly thinking of the superhero and related styles of comic books. Some other styles of comic books would probably be more acceptable.

[1] Or more precisely, panollidism or other ideologies which spring from the same general sources.

Is panollidism a philosophy you invented for this TL? 'Cause I can't seem to find a mention of it anywhere on the internet. Google searches for 'panollidism' and 'panollidist' only show links to LoRaG.

 

[Jared]

Is panollidism a philosophy you invented for this TL? 'Cause I can't seem to find a mention of it anywhere on the internet. Google searches for 'panollidism' and 'panollidist' only show links to LoRaG.

Yes, panollidism is an invented ideology - well, cluster of ideologies - that have been created in TTL. So is what this timeline calls monism, which is an ideological framework about society and politics that has virtually nothing in common with the OTL philosophical view called monism. here's no close analogue to either of these ideologies in OTL. While some elements of panollidism (and monism)would be recognisable in parts of various OTL ideologies, the underlying cause and the whole development of the history of thought are different.

The process of industrialisation is different in this timeline, the development of nationalism and sovereignty are different in this timeline, the development of the organised labour movement is different, the development of democracy is different, and so are, well, quite a few other things. This affects how this world perceives politics, society, economics, history, and so much else.

There have been a few hints about some aspects of panollidism, but it's not possible to get the full picture yet, since it depends on showing so much more of the history of how this world develops. There will be more of it revealed throughout Act II, but some parts will not be covered until Act III, which covers more of the development of TTL's modern world. Monism has barely been touched on - and I don't even think I've used the word in a timeline post yet - but in general terms, panollidism and monism define themselves in opposition to each other. Or at least an oversimplified version of each other.

In very general terms, panollidism/monism are an exploration of two things:
- how ideology might have developed in the complete absence of anyone like Karl Marx; and
- how modern European/European-descended ideology might have developed if it had been influenced by non-European philosophies.

To expand on those a bit, Karl Marx's influence on the development of economics, history, politics, and much else is profoundly immense. Not just in itself, but in those ideologies developed in opposition to Marx, and also in co-opting a range of other ideologies and systems of thought which were developing during the nineteenth and twentieth centuries.

TTL explores how analogues to those ideologies might have developed in the absence of anything resembling Marx, together with a few developments where things were just, well, different. (The different way nationalism develops ITTL is part of that.)

The influence from non-European philosophies was based on the comments of a popular historian I read a long time ago (and whose name, regrettably, escapes me), which ran along the following lines: the history of thought and society in the modern era is notable in that the influence of European (and European descended) societies on the rest of the world was much more profound than how much other societies influenced European societies. The traffic was remarkably one-way. The European history of thought, as developed by people such as Locke, Spinoza, Voltaire, Newton, Hegel, Marx, Nietszhe etc, had a profound influence throughout the world. The last non-European thinker to have a comparable influence on European culture was a fellow by the name of Jesus Christ [1].

ITTL, some non-European philosophies will also have significant influence on the history of thought in Europe/European-descended societies. Which will ultimately be reflected in panollidism and monism.

[1] Not that this means that other cultures blindly followed European influence wholesale, of course. Rather, that many cultures took what they wanted from European (and European-descended societies) and adapted it to their own purposes. But offhand, I can't think of any thinker who had comparable influence on Europeans - although Muhammad came close.

 

[teg]

[1] Not that this means that other cultures blindly followed European influence wholesale, of course. Rather, that many cultures took what they wanted from European (and European-descended societies) and adapted it to their own purposes. But offhand, I can't think of any thinker who had comparable influence on Europeans - although Muhammad came close.

Muhammad was defenitely as influential as Jesus, but in a very different way. In my opinion, Jesus and Christianity shaped European civilization positively while Muhammed and Islam shaped it negatively. This doesn't mean that Islam is inferior to Christianity, but rather that Christianity provided some of the foundations of European civilization, whereas Islam provided an ideological 'foe' that made Europe define itself as a single unit (before the rise of Islam, you could argue that northern Europe and the Mediterranean were in effect two different civilizations...)

Pandollism sounds like it is going to be interesting.

teg