Immigration and settlement
Immigration and settlement
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]OTL, Canada's population in 1814 was 95k in Upper Canada and 335k in Lower Canada. ITTL, we have 60k more French Catholics (the royalists and their children). We also have existing populations in the new territories (5k in Michigan, ~20k in Missouri, and probably some 20k Indians in the Protectorate. At a wild guess, as many as 5k of these might be Francophone.) [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]In the years immediately following the war, there is an influx of 200k settlers, mostly demobbed soldiers with their families, plus some tens of thousands of refugees from the US. (Losing the war made the US very nativist. Catholics, 'foreigners' and Federalists are all made VERY unwelcome, and large numbers fled to New England, the Maritimes and Canada.) [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The massive influx of anglo settlers worries the Roman Catholic hierarchy, as they can see that the vast majority of future immigrants are likely to be Protestant and anglo. Since this is the official policy of the British government (to introduce 'balance' – code word for getting a Protestant majority through immigration), the Church has some reason to worry. The Church starts encouraging good Catholic families to have more children to keep up their predominance. [This policy «revanche du berceau» actually is OTL, although I've probably got it starting a bit earlier.] The result is that francophone natural growth rates rise slightly to 3.5%/year (doubling time = 20 years), compared to the early, and current Anglo rate of 3%/year (doubling time =25 years). [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]After the immediate rush of soldiers and refugees ends, there is a bit of a lull. But once the St Laurence canal system is in place, and Canadian wheat is allowed into British markets, settling in Canada becomes even more attractive. Work clearing land, building canals and later railroads, and in the new mines and industries (foundries mostly, to start with), provides lots of work for poor immigrants without the capital to start/buy their own farm. And with all the new territories opening up, there's lots of room if you can afford to start your own farm. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Moreover, as Canadian exports to Britain are bulky – timber and grain (iTTL), the return legs of the voyage are mostly empty (even if they contain manufactured goods, those are much less bulky than the raw materials). This means that there is lots of room for passengers, and, since the ship is making the voyage anyway, fares are pretty cheap. In 1826, 15k settlers land at Montreal [12.6k iOTL], 33.5k in 1830 [28k], 80k in 1832 [66k]. In 1832 and 1834 there were cholera epidemics (both in Europe and in Montreal), which meant that very few settlers came across for the next few years, but in the years 1837-1841 immigration averaged 80k/year. [1][/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]This still doesn't make up for all the immigration that OTL went to the US, so South Africa, Australia and South America get earlier dollops of Anglo settlement.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Most of the immigration comes from the British Isles, but there is some from elsewhere. [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The British government does not want to see Canada being an entirely Catholic country, so it starts recruiting in northern Germany and in Scandinavia, as well as among the English and protestant Scots. This recruitment effort has some success, but not much – for now. However, ground work has been laid, and in the future, people will remember the opportunity.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]In 1830 there is a change of monarchy in France (Orléanist Louis-Phillipe replacing Legitimist Charles X), and the upset 'legitimists' feel marginalized. Similarly, some republicans had hoped for a restoration of the Republic, instead of a merely more liberal monarchy. Disgust with current affairs leads many to leave France, and start a new life in Canada. In total, some 50k emigrate to Canada in the years 1830-1841.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]The catholic Irish are poor and crowded in Ireland. Thousands travel to Canada for a new life. Some come over to work as navvies on the canals, and then on the roads and railroads; others come as farm servants, working on established farms until they can pay off their transportation debt and build up some capital for their own farms. Since they work, by preference, for other catholic farmers (i.e. usually francophone ones) they often marry a daughter of the family before starting their own farms. Similarly, Irish girls coming over may work in French speaking households as servants, or work in sweatshops in e.g. Montréal. In either case, they learn French, and are as likely to meet a french-speaking husband as an Irish one. So, of the Irish that come over, some 50k essentially merge into the French community, while the others either end up in Irish (often Gaelic speaking) settlements or in general Anglo settlements.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]In the Protectorate, we start with some 20k Indians in 1814. This increases naturally to 33k by 1841, and there are about 17k refugees from the US who join them (mostly Indians who are 'encouraged' to leave from what is now Ohio and Kentucky (including the southern bits of what used to be Indiana and Illinois territories). Some come from as far away as Pennsylvania and Tennessee, and a few blacks fleeing slavery join the Confederacy society rather than white society.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]So. In total, by 1841, we have total population in Canada of 2.32 million (1.11 French +1.16 Anglo +.05 Indian). [2] [/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]In the years immediately after the war, some 50k francophones move west 20k to Michigan, 15k to St. Louis, 15k to 'Wisconsin' (mostly Chicago area), and down the Illinois River, which provides a solid French-speaking core to these territories. Over the next 25 years, more move west in a steady trickle. Also, much of the Anglo settlement comes west. By 1841 Wisconsin and Missouri each have rather more than 100k population, Michigan has 200k+, Québec has 800k+, Ontario has 900k+; there's about 100k in the Protectorate (about as many whites on the US border and along the Illinois river as there are Indians), and the population of Iowa is growing, especially in the areas immediately adjacent to Wisconsin and Missouri.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]As you might expect, like calls to like - each immigrant group tends to settle in a village with other people like them. So, going down a major river (say the Illinois, which is a particularly mixed area), you'll have a Kickapoo village, then a French royalist one, then a Canadien one, then a German protestant one, then another (mixed) French one, then a Potawatomi one, then protestant Scots village, then a highland Scots one, then a village of former Americans (United Empire Loyalists), followed by an Gaelic speaking Irish village, then an English (settlers from England) one, then another Kickapoo one, then a mixed-blood one, then one with New England settlers, etc. [/FONT]
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[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]1 Note: numbers are only up about 1/5 from OTL. But... Many of the settlers iOTL moved on to the US, which was only partly balanced by a smaller number coming up from/through the States. The other major difference is that the rebellions of 1837 in Upper and Lower Canada really discouraged people, so immigration slowed massively then. Here, there is no such brake, and the immigration continues where it left off.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Note that US immigration iOTL was some 60k in the 1810s, 143k in the 1820s, and 599k in the 1830s. This is in addition to the some 200k that came to Ontario and stayed. Here, the US is very unwelcoming of immigration, so takes in maybe 50k in the '20s and 100k in the '30s, all of whom would have to 'look' American (so Scots-Irish, the odd German, that sort of thing). There is a net OUTflow of Roman Catholics.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]So OTL immigration to North America in the 20s and 30s is some 942k, iTTL it's 750k. Of the remaining ~200k, probably more than half stay home, but South Africa (~50k), Australia (~20k) get more settlers than OTL, and 10 or 20k probably settle in southern South America. Note New Zealand isn't opened for settlement until 1840, so, while they will get settlement, it hasn't happened yet.[/FONT]
[FONT=Arial, sans-serif]2 natural increase takes the Anglo population to ~660k and the Franco population to 1.01M. Add 500k and 100k respectively from immigration and you should get the 1.16 and 1.11 figures. Compare the 2.3M figure for iTTL's Canada with the 2.6M figure for Scotland in the same year, or 2.23M for New England the year before (OTL, probably a touch higher iTTL). Note that the US is about 14 million at this point (OTL 17M-700k immigrants, -2.2 New Englanders). Of these, almost 2.5M are black. I assume that the population that OTL moved to territories not longer part of the US still move west, to more densely settle Ohio, Kentucky and the two new southern states. While they may not be able to get as much land, or as good land, there should still be land for settlement. Now, 1840 is probably the last Census date you could make that claim.
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[/FONT] [FONT=Arial, sans-serif]Nugax convinced me I was being too sloppy. Plugging reasonable immigration figures into a spreadsheet, doing natural increase every year. (3% Anglo, 3.5% Franco, 2% Indio) gives a 1841 data set of : 1245.7k Anglo; 1144.4k Franco; 58k Indio for a grand total of 2448.2k. Consider the earlier numbers wrong, and these correct.[/FONT]