Plausibility Check-Llamas introduced to Mesoamerica

[Silver01]

Well, the ruling class already has better pack animals in the form of slaves and subjects. They can carry almost as much weight and you can tell them what to do. So as far as elites are concerned, they just don't care.

ok there is still meat and wool

That's the way it is. We have this idea that Elites and the ruling social orders have some benign commitment to society, rather than their own narcissism, so if they come across a great labour saving device for poor people, they'll endorse it and invest in it. That's not even how our own contemporary elites think.

if its efficent and brings benefit for them the elites adopt it one would have to ask what benefits do llamas bring to the economy.

Have you ever eaten Llama? It's not that appetizing I'm told by a Llama farmer I know.

Im peruvian and yes in visits to the highlands i have eaten vote there not bad but alpaca steak is better than llama

And before people start importing Llama for wool, you first need to create a huge thriving demand for llama wool, such that it is being shipped in large quantities on a commercial level. The Silk Road and the extreme value of Silk to the Greeks, Romans and Byzantines was a well established thing long before Justinian.

this not impossible irregular trade already existed but the main part was spondylus shell so you would just have to made the trade more regular then otl

 

[DG Valdron]

ok there is still meat and wool

if its efficent and brings benefit for them the elites adopt it one would have to ask what benefits do llamas bring to the economy.

Elites do not function that way. Elites ask what is good for them. They don't give a crap about the economy.

this not impossible irregular trade already existed but the main part was spondylus shell so you would just have to made the trade more regular then otl

Then the first thing you need to do is figure out how to build a steady regular trade that includes large volumes of llama wool.

 

[twovultures]

Look, I'm sorry if I'm shooting you guys down. But I just think we need to work hard to make the case going on real, plausible human behaviour.

I'm very sympathetic, I'm positive.

I'm just not easy.

I’m inclined to agree with your pessimism, frankly-it’s entirely possible for pre-Columbian Mexico and Peru to keep a long term contact for centuries without transferring llamas. Which is why I wanted to examine the scenarios under which it could happen.

 

[Quinkana]

Im peruvian and yes in visits to the highlands i have eaten vote there not bad but alpaca steak is better than llama.

Have you ever eaten Llama? It's not that appetizing I'm told by a Llama farmer I know.

From what I know taste is very subjective, and it's about availability as much as it is 'what is high class'. In a situation where llama meat is rare at the beginning and seen as a 'high class meat' people will think it is tasty.

And before people start importing Llama for wool, you first need to create a huge thriving demand for llama wool, such that it is being shipped in large quantities on a commercial level. The Silk Road and the extreme value of Silk to the Greeks, Romans and Byzantines was a well established thing long before Justinian.

this not impossible irregular trade already existed but the main part was spondylus shell so you would just have to made the trade more regular then otl

So let's say the really early development of the sail and a rudimentary star map allows the Andeans to trade in things like beans and writing that keeps their agriculture alive and prevents the various civilisations from collapsing (or it allows for the states that come after to remember the civilisations that came before). And as that happens we get a Bronze Age collapse scenario where wars happens and forces people to move to other places, and raid around the Americas + colonising the regions. As this happens the new elite brings llamas in as a regular source of food and wool, and as a status symbol, which allows the more herding inclined people to go herding in the highlands, and allows the llama to spread in North America.

 

[Silver01]

Elites do not function that way. Elites ask what is good for them. They don't give a crap about the economy.

this is not always the case by that logic the judeans and greek city states would have prevented the introduction of chicken because of the elites?

frankly-it’s entirely possible for pre-Columbian Mexico and Peru to keep a long term contact for centuries without transferring llamas.

so more or less the OTL?

 

[twovultures]

so more or less the OTL?

Essentially yes. That tropical barrier is very hard for camelids to cross. Humans can bring them across it, but it requires motivation.

 

[DG Valdron]

this is not always the case by that logic the judeans and greek city states would have prevented the introduction of chicken because of the elites?

The elites didn't introduce chickens. That was a grass roots innovation. Chickens were small, easy to transport, easy to feed and maintain, and could be managed by small family households with conventional yard scraps.

If elites had introduced chicken, it would have been a royal bird, eggs would have been luxury food, and clothing would have incorporated chicken bones and chicken feathers as status items. It would have been illegal for commoners to own chickens and the penalties for messing with chickens would have been egregious.

The general rule is that elites do not encourage or enjoy innovation unless they either (a) control it completely; or (b) derive direct and obvious benefit from it.

There may be exceptions, the occasional wise and virtuous ruler or benefactor, or the modern era when people began to think more broadly. But put it broadly, historically, most elites have invested surplus labour or resources in monuments to themselves, and not works to benefit society.

 

[DG Valdron]

So let's say the really early development of the sail and a rudimentary star map allows the Andeans to trade in things like beans and writing that keeps their agriculture alive and prevents the various civilisations from collapsing (or it allows for the states that come after to remember the civilisations that came before). And as that happens we get a Bronze Age collapse scenario where wars happens and forces people to move to other places, and raid around the Americas + colonising the regions. As this happens the new elite brings llamas in as a regular source of food and wool, and as a status symbol, which allows the more herding inclined people to go herding in the highlands, and allows the llama to spread in North America.

Are civilizational collapses associated with high volumes of traffic of luxury and status goods?

 

[Quinkana]

Are civilizational collapses associated with high volumes of traffic of luxury and status goods?

I think there needs to be a reason for the people to start moving around and forming trade links, and fleeing from a civilisational collapse and allowing innovations and more transportable animals would be a good step to eventually building the expertise and the trade links that would allow the new nations (when they arise) to be able to have the trade volumes necessary to trade live animals like llamas and the such.

I do think this scenario does need a bit of luck and circumstance for it to happen, and the sail and a star map has to be invented in the Andes or Mesoamerica before the collapse happens and forces the different peoples to shift and share ideas with each other.

 

[twovultures]

I think there needs to be a reason for the people to start moving around and forming trade links, and fleeing from a civilisational collapse and allowing innovations and more transportable animals would be a good step to eventually building the expertise and the trade links that would allow the new nations (when they arise) to be able to have the trade volumes necessary to trade live animals like llamas and the such.

It doesn't have to be civilizational collapse level of bad. A civil war that goes badly for one side, people fleeing a conquest, a bad El Niño year could all displace people while leaving existing trade contacts in place.

Looking in the Old World, there are some potential parallels with the scenarios we have been discussing in this thread. The introduction of cebu cattle to Africa may have been through the Indian Ocean maritime trade networks, as potentially was the introduction of water buffalo to Mesopotamia. These introductions went along well-established trade networks, though-time + better boats seems to be the ingredient for such a successful translocation.

 

[ennobee]

Seeing what we have done with horses, sheep and cows over the last 2000 years, it should easily be possible to breed a race of llamas that could thrive even in Texas. However that would require either some foresight or a master plan, or some reason for llama farmers to move down from the mountains and north across the Darien Gap. Unless there is a huge market for llama wool, or meat, I really don't see this happening.

 

[Quinkana]

It doesn't have to be civilizational collapse level of bad. A civil war that goes badly for one side, people fleeing a conquest, a bad El Niño year could all displace people while leaving existing trade contacts in place.

Looking in the Old World, there are some potential parallels with the scenarios we have been discussing in this thread. The introduction of cebu cattle to Africa may have been through the Indian Ocean maritime trade networks, as potentially was the introduction of water buffalo to Mesopotamia. These introductions went along well-established trade networks, though-time + better boats seems to be the ingredient for such a successful translocation.

Which is why I suggested the development of the sail as the first thing that needs to change from otl. Even without sailing beyond the coasts would allow for trade to happen, and cause the spread of ideas and technology, and for ships to become bigger so more could be traded, and so that people could actually trade llamas as a trade good.

A lot of this is about having enough time for the amount of attempts needed to establish llamas in mesoamerica. ofc having more incentives like new elites from the Andes would help, and I think they could be put in for a radically different mesoamerica too.

 

[chornedsnorkack]

Teotihuacan had a lot of regional barrios connected to exotic crafts and importing exotic goods. So why not a Peruvian Barrio in Teotihuacan whose inhabitants smelt bronze, raise llamas and weave woollen textiles - probably decorated, fancy woollens for display by Teotihuacan´s elites?

 

[DG Valdron]

Just thinking out loud, the problem with open sea travel is that there's nothing out there. There's no Islands, just the coast.
Also, as far as I can tell, the ocean and wind currents look thoroughly cap.

It may be that the best bet is a coastal network.

Maybe we're looking at this wrong.

What about through the Andes, through Colombia, out into the Caribbean?

My thinking, you need at least one high value commodity to incentivize regular, not intermittent trade. Once you've got that established, then you have a network that will expand to include other commodities, and that gets you the sort of robust trading systems that will move things like Llama.

So perhaps what we should be looking for is to establish internal connections in South America.

 

[Silver01]

What about through the Andes, through Colombia, out into the Caribbean?

Why not the typical and know route of colombia central America and Guatemala to Mexico

 

[twovultures]

Why not the typical and know route of colombia central America and Guatemala to Mexico

Jungles kill camels dead. 19th century exporters suffered horrendous casualties in the camelid herds when transporting them via rail cattle cars through Panama, actually driving a herd on foot through the isthmus will destroy it. In an ASB scenario with a new ice age, maybe that works, but it ain't going to work with OTL weather.

Andes-Columbia-Mesoamerica is...difficult, but if it worked for Josephine Bonapart IOTL, it might work in an alternate scenario. The route the llamas would take would probably be Andes-La Guajira Peninsula (brutally hot, but at least it's dry)-sea voyage-Veracruz -Mesoamerican Highlands. You're still going to suffer mass casualties in the herd, and you're still going to need to have a well developed trade and exchange network with advanced boats, which themselves are probably downstream of more Eurasian-style metallurgy, but it is workable as a route. La Guajira was OTL a center of trade for pearls, so it could conceivably become a lynchpin in an Andean-Mesoamerican trade network that goes through the Caribbean, and could end up as a launching pad for transporting livestock. Perhaps appropriate for an ATL, given that IOTL the indigenous Waayu were enthusiastic adopters of horses and livestock.

@chornedsnorkack, this proposed route is IMO more realistic for getting llamas to an area controlled by Teotihuacan (assuming something recognizably akin to Teotihuacan exists ITTL), since as near as I can tell Teotihuacan's OTL influence tended to be on the eastern side of the Mexican highlands.

 

[Arkenfolm]

There's a huge gap between moving animals back and forth overland from inland Ecuador to coastal Ecuador, as opposed to a trans-continental sea voyage.

Second, well bred livestock are not pioneer goods. They're sold or exchanged from societies which have them and know what to do with them, to other societies which already have them and know what to do with them. Both societies in the exchange know what they've got and what the intrinsic value is.

It's not the same as introducing a new, relatively alien animal to a society or economy, which has no idea what to do with it, what priority to attribute to it, or a how to apply it.

By way of example, the Chinese Treasure Fleet shipped a giraffe all the way from Africa to China. This did not lead to a transplanted population of domesticated or feral giraffe's wandering all over China.

In fact, when you look at it, there's only a relatively small group of domesticates that have travelled between cultures. There are many that haven't travelled.

The intrinsic value is "look at this unique animal you now own." For instance, in East Asia, the first Japanese encounters with sheep were because the Korean king sent the Emperor and his court those animals. They never established a population in Japan, but this occurred several times over the centuries. That sheep never caught on is probably just as much due to the cultural habits of the Japanese elite in that era where they did not eat meat and did not wear woolen clothes. This also occurred with goats and camels.

Do those pressures exist in coastal Pacific Mesoamerica in the Classic/Postclassic? Maybe a llama would just amount to "look at the funny foreign man riding a llama" until the creature dies. Maybe someone likes the taste and wants more. The group I could really see in opposition is ironically porters who have no need for llamas because they don't want some animal hauling the goods they haul since it competes with them out of a job and llama handlers would be foreigners.

Greenland was a colony in regular trade contact with its progenitor societies. In fact, Greenland was settled by literal fleets of ships from Iceland (and indirectly Norway), and was entirely dependent on trade and continuing trade and communication for survival. Further, Norse and Norwegian society by that time was well experienced and adapted to shipping large animals, the founding populations of sheep, horses, cattle, goats and pigs had been transplanted by to the Faroes, to Iceland, Greenland, etc. The skills and techniques had grown organically over centuries and in massive volume and were commonplace and well established.

What you're talking about is a one jump - from inventing the wheel to driving a Ferrari. I don't think so. Developing the capacity, the trade volume and the skills and motivation to do so is not a one jump, but a process.

Could just send young, freshly weaned llamas instead. Or build those skills by oceanic trade where coastal Ecuador sells a llama they bought in the highlands of Ecuador to the people of Central America for gold or some other export.

Volume of trade may not be so valuable. High-value goods ship well, hence why exotic animals were key among Greenland's exports. They seem to have been worth more than walrus ivory, but there was not as big of a market. Greenland itself received only 1-2 ships per year for most of its existance.

No its not a benefit, for two reasons. First, a relatively low value is not in itself a draw. Rocks are cheap. Mud is cheap. But traders do not load up their caravans with rocks and mud because even though it is cheaply obtained, you can't actually sell it for much or extract much benefit from it.

Second, even if a Llama is relatively cheaply obtained on the Ecuador coast, it becomes expensive to ship, in terms of labour and weight, because you need to feed the beast, which means you need provisions for it, you need to carry extra water for it, and in the meantime, it shits, pisses, makes noise and unless it's tethered constantly, will move about and cause trouble.

And then it gets sold for a large amount of money

Just thinking out loud, the problem with open sea travel is that there's nothing out there. There's no Islands, just the coast.
Also, as far as I can tell, the ocean and wind currents look thoroughly cap.

The coastal route probably was the historic route.

 

[DG Valdron]

The intrinsic value is "look at this unique animal you now own." For instance, in East Asia, the first Japanese encounters with sheep were because the Korean king sent the Emperor and his court those animals. They never established a population in Japan, but this occurred several times over the centuries. That sheep never caught on is probably just as much due to the cultural habits of the Japanese elite in that era where they did not eat meat and did not wear woolen clothes. This also occurred with goats and camels.

And yet, despite proximity of Japan and Korea, regular and massive volumes of trade and cultural similarity, several efforts to transplant an alien animal failed.

This does not support your case.

Do those pressures exist in coastal Pacific Mesoamerica in the Classic/Postclassic? Maybe a llama would just amount to "look at the funny foreign man riding a llama" until the creature dies.

They're not really riding animals. They're pack carriers.

Maybe someone likes the taste and wants more.

And is willing to wait months for the next one to be delivered and butchered?

Could just send young, freshly weaned llamas instead.

They still eat, drink, shit and gambole. Smaller, but still pains in the asses.

Volume of trade may not be so valuable. High-value goods ship well, hence why exotic animals were key among Greenland's exports. They seem to have been worth more than walrus ivory, but there was not as big of a market. Greenland itself received only 1-2 ships per year for most of its existance.

Actually, the principal exports were walrus hide, walrus ivory and soapstone. Some trade in wool. Exotic animals - polar bears were not a key export and didn't drive the export trade. They were blue-moon ride alongs. Sort of a jackpot, when you could get one. But they weren't sufficient to justify a trading network.

And then it gets sold for a large amount of money

Or doesn't sell at all, and you've lost your shirt. Or sells for much less than it cost.

 

[Pesterfield]

and have better carry animal in mules why do you really a llama for?

What about in mountains, are European mountains harsh enough llamas would do better over mules? Alps?

Well, the ruling class already has better pack animals in the form of slaves and subjects.

Llamas can carry more 75-100 pounds versus 30 to 37 for a person.
Also people not working as pack animals can do other jobs.

 

[DG Valdron]

Llamas can carry more 75-100 pounds versus 30 to 37 for a person.
Also people not working as pack animals can do other jobs.

Very true. But that's meaningful to the labouring class. It's not meaningful to the aristocratic class.

Aristocrats, or elites, just don't think in those terms. Even now, they don't think in terms of the well being of society, or the overall economy. They don't think in terms of social efficiency. An elite is completely happy to let coal miners die in preventable cave ins, or of preventable black lung disease, unless you can show them a direct benefit to themselves. Otherwise, they'll just divert funds to the next super-yacht and let people die.

So the simple fact of saving labour or greater efficiency for the wrong class of people is not a persuader.

Now, if you have a warlike general who needs to carry a lot of heavy packs and have hands freed up for murder, then sure, a population or a herd of llamas looks appealling. Something to develop. They can see an obvious, tangible advantage to their purposes.

A lot of the speculation and idea generation seems to consist of elite-fondling. That the way to get Llamas into cultures is by catering to elites - basically elites importing Llamas as fancy pets or personal zoo animals, etc. etc. But historically, Australia excepted, we've had literally hundreds of historical examples of these sorts of elite driven acquisitions, and they generally go nowhere and produce nothing.

Ecuadoran merchants are not going to automatically recognize Llamas as a valuable trade good, not on their own. From their point of view, Llamas are cheap and not worth transporting. They're not going to automatically assume that the things will fetch a high price.

You know who would recognize a possible value of Llamas? A meso-American sailor or merchant or visitor resident in the Andes, someone who knows their own culture, and can identify actual worthwhile exotic novelties that they'd know would go over back home, or who could see a useful potential in transplanting such an animal.

Alternately, another possibility - an Andean transplanted out into Meso-America, living there full time, lonely for a piece of home, and seeing advantages.

What you need are two things - first, a much larger volume of trade, around a basket of commodities, which will build up the skills and trading infrastructure, so there's just a lot of people with the skills floating around on both sides.