@Meshakhad This story is excellent. When do you think there will be a continuation? A couple of months? Hiatus? Take as much time as you need though, if your personal life takes you away from writing.
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The Fire Never Dies, Part II: The Red Colossus
- Thread starter Meshakhad
- Start date
It'll be a while. I've prioritized editing Part 1 for publication, and I just started a new job.
What's up with Lenin? He lost Russia to the Whites, and I suspect his ideology took a big hit. Will the Bolsheviks turn to America and sideline Lenin? Will we see democratic socialist Russia?
Lenin is currently in Belarus with the Bolshevik remnant. He has enough followers that they are still convinced of his ideology, blaming their defeat on the Anarchists and Kropotkin. Russia is definitely not going socialist, and will soon be dropping democracy as well.
Oof. What do they think of America, given its the opposite of Lenin's "democratic centralism" and with no vanguard parties?
Their views on America are all over the place. Lenin has described the IWW and SLP as a vanguard party (like many, he sees them as essentially the same entity) but he criticized them for not embracing centralism and tolerating bourgeois politicians like Rayburn and Johnson. A lot of Belarusian socialist writings will be about explaining the comparative success of DeLeonism while still favoring Leninism.
Oh, oh, I can answer this one!
DeLeonism is secretly a Bourgeois ideology presented as a Socialist one and then propped up in order to undermine Leninism, the TRUE SOCIALISM.
Meanwhile Leninist Belarus who's working with the German Empire. I'm curious but is Belarus just gonna stay as Germany's pet Socialist Republic?
Belarus isn't socialist. They're a bourgeois republic in which the Bolsheviks are just one party, contending with liberals and conservative nationalists. They are effectively part of Mitteleuropa, Germany's buffer zone in Eastern Europe.
I like the joke.
On a more serious level, though, I think the whole frame of reference underlying the joke will probably not work, given how it evolved IOTL in the context of Comintern orthodoxy (and mirroring Trotskyite orthodoxy, Hozha's orthodoxy etc.).
Lenin was a very flexible thinker, probably one of the most flexible ones among convinced Marxists in his time (and that says a lot, given how colourful and lively Marxism was pre-Comintern).
IOW, there is a high likelihood of an openly Leninist party in the German Riech which the powers at be merely sigh in annoyance over.
The question I have is why didn’t Lenin or any of his crew visit America yet? Even with the war reconstruction, it feels like outside of bad health Lenin would be interested to see the new socialist republic in person. Does the time it takes to maintain a party in Belarus consume him that much that he wouldn’t be able to make the trip?
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He probably doesn't want to risk being murdered by some anti-communist who identifies him as Lenin.
If they even notice. Germany has a strong socialist establishment of its own, so a German Leninist party would be very small. Leninism's influence ITTL will be comparable to Trotskyism IOTL, and it will be strongest in Eastern Europe, particularly countries that were formerly part of the Russian Empire. I've already mentioned that Stalin heads up the Bolshevik party in Georgia, and we will also see Bolshevik parties in Ukraine, Finland, Poland, Lithuania, and Baltica. Most socialist organizations that existed prior to 1917 will lean more towards New York in their thinking, especially once Wall Street starts doling out the cash.
He probably would visit, actually. When I do get back to updating this TL, one of my planned entries will be an update on Belarus. Whether or not the Bolsheviks win the first Belarusian elections, Lenin would want to visit the ASU. And if his health is in decline... well, the ASU has superior medical care.
Why would they even bother with Lenin when people like Liebknecht and Luxembourg were already offering parallel alternatives to mainstream Socialism?
Honestly given that Luxembourg and liebknecht tried to do the revolution in post war Germany otl, they very well may have tried to get to America themselves, either due to government pressure or the desire to learn from the revolutionaries. Or perhaps just to see the experiment in action
Pretty much every socialist leader of the time made at least one trip. However, the ASU actually discourages foreign socialist leaders from moving permanently to the US for fear of creating a socialist brain drain. Of course, if they are facing active persecution, the ASU will be the default destination.
19. The Chinese Civil War
New
…The Chinese Civil War[1] is generally accepted to have begun on June 6, 1916, with the death of Yuan Shikai, the Hongxian Emperor and founder of the Xinhai Dynasty. While support for the new dynasty was far from universal, a shaky peace had held during the Emperor’s brief reign. But with his death coming less than a year into his reign, many saw a chance to rise up against the new Yuntai Emperor. What followed was a decade of multi-sided warfare across China…
…Of the various factions that emerged, the easiest to deal with were the warlords of the Beiyang Army. Most were nominally loyal to the Emperor in Nanking but saw Yuan Shikai’s death as an opportunity to expand their power bases, often at the expense of their neighbors. Rather than subjugate them by force, Yuntai primarily employed diplomacy. He used bribes, political appointments, and noble titles to win warlords over, usually accompanied by the threat of violence. Yuntai’s skill at winning one warlord over, then using that warlord to help subdue another, was critical in restoring Xinhai control of central China by 1920. Also vital was the embrace of federalism, which helped win over regions dominated by non-Han minorities like Tibet and Mongolia. Both the Bogd Khan and the 13th Dalai Lama would accept fealty to Nanking in exchange for retaining their own local power structures…
…The more dangerous factions were ideological. The first was the Kuomintang (KMT). Sun Yat-Sen’s followers were committed republicans who viewed the establishment of the Xinhai dynasty as a betrayal of the 1911 Revolution. However, many KMT moderates became Xinhai supporters, leaving the rest of the KMT increasingly radicalized. This split was accelerated by the outbreak of the Second American Civil War[2] in 1917, after which Sun’s rhetoric became increasingly socialist. When Sun Yat-Sen proclaimed a new Republic of China in Canton in 1917, he included the General Defense Committee on the lists of governments he asked for recognition…
…The second faction were the Qing loyalists, who sought to restore Emperor Puyi, who had abdicated in 1912. In 1917, the loyalist general Zhang Yun seized Beijing in 1917 and reinstalled Puyi[3]. At first, Puyi had little material support, until 1919 when Marshal Zhang Zhuong, the Japanese-backed warlord of Manchuria, offered his support[4]. Zhang Zhuong had previously been a KMT supporter, but the socialist rhetoric coming out of Canton had rubbed him and his Japanese allies the wrong way, especially after Sun Yat-Sen had held a parade to celebrate the fall of Washington to the Red Army. Instantly, the Qing gained control of Manchuria, or at least as much control as Japan would allow. Through the Qing, Japan hoped to bring all of China into Japan’s sphere of influence…
…Yuntai saw the KMT as the more immediate threat. They had much greater ideological support for the Chinese people. Accordingly, in 1922 he dispatched the Southern Expedition to bring the KMT to heel. By now, most of the international community favored the Empire, with only the American Socialist Union supporting the Republic of China, and even then there was a limit to how much aid New York could send. The death of Sun Yat-Sen[5] in 1925 triggered a succession crisis within the KMT that led to its rapid collapse under Imperial military pressure and the incorporation of southern China into the Empire. Many KMT leaders would go into exile in the ASU…
…While the Southern Expedition had been ongoing, the Qing had been consolidating their control in the north. A formal armistice between Beijing and Nanking was signed in 1926, but negotiations aimed at peaceful reunification soon stalled out. In an attempt to build popular support, the Qing began to promote Manchu nationalism in their territory. The seeds were being sown for another war, one that would have consequences far beyond China…
- From The Chinese Phoenix: Birth of the Xinhai Dynasty by Matt Ward
[1] This is not the ATL counterpart of the OTL Chinese Civil War (1927-1949) but rather the Warlord Era (1916-1928). With most of the non-ideological warlords falling in line rather quickly, the conflict is much more ideological in nature.
[2] Most European authors use the term Second American Civil War instead of Second American Revolution.
[3] OTL.
[4] IOTL, Zhang Zhuong remained a supporter of the Beiyang government while also working for the Japanese in Manchuria. He was also an anti-communist, which is why he breaks with Sun Yat-Sen ITTL.
[5] OTL.
…Of the various factions that emerged, the easiest to deal with were the warlords of the Beiyang Army. Most were nominally loyal to the Emperor in Nanking but saw Yuan Shikai’s death as an opportunity to expand their power bases, often at the expense of their neighbors. Rather than subjugate them by force, Yuntai primarily employed diplomacy. He used bribes, political appointments, and noble titles to win warlords over, usually accompanied by the threat of violence. Yuntai’s skill at winning one warlord over, then using that warlord to help subdue another, was critical in restoring Xinhai control of central China by 1920. Also vital was the embrace of federalism, which helped win over regions dominated by non-Han minorities like Tibet and Mongolia. Both the Bogd Khan and the 13th Dalai Lama would accept fealty to Nanking in exchange for retaining their own local power structures…
…The more dangerous factions were ideological. The first was the Kuomintang (KMT). Sun Yat-Sen’s followers were committed republicans who viewed the establishment of the Xinhai dynasty as a betrayal of the 1911 Revolution. However, many KMT moderates became Xinhai supporters, leaving the rest of the KMT increasingly radicalized. This split was accelerated by the outbreak of the Second American Civil War[2] in 1917, after which Sun’s rhetoric became increasingly socialist. When Sun Yat-Sen proclaimed a new Republic of China in Canton in 1917, he included the General Defense Committee on the lists of governments he asked for recognition…
…The second faction were the Qing loyalists, who sought to restore Emperor Puyi, who had abdicated in 1912. In 1917, the loyalist general Zhang Yun seized Beijing in 1917 and reinstalled Puyi[3]. At first, Puyi had little material support, until 1919 when Marshal Zhang Zhuong, the Japanese-backed warlord of Manchuria, offered his support[4]. Zhang Zhuong had previously been a KMT supporter, but the socialist rhetoric coming out of Canton had rubbed him and his Japanese allies the wrong way, especially after Sun Yat-Sen had held a parade to celebrate the fall of Washington to the Red Army. Instantly, the Qing gained control of Manchuria, or at least as much control as Japan would allow. Through the Qing, Japan hoped to bring all of China into Japan’s sphere of influence…
…Yuntai saw the KMT as the more immediate threat. They had much greater ideological support for the Chinese people. Accordingly, in 1922 he dispatched the Southern Expedition to bring the KMT to heel. By now, most of the international community favored the Empire, with only the American Socialist Union supporting the Republic of China, and even then there was a limit to how much aid New York could send. The death of Sun Yat-Sen[5] in 1925 triggered a succession crisis within the KMT that led to its rapid collapse under Imperial military pressure and the incorporation of southern China into the Empire. Many KMT leaders would go into exile in the ASU…
…While the Southern Expedition had been ongoing, the Qing had been consolidating their control in the north. A formal armistice between Beijing and Nanking was signed in 1926, but negotiations aimed at peaceful reunification soon stalled out. In an attempt to build popular support, the Qing began to promote Manchu nationalism in their territory. The seeds were being sown for another war, one that would have consequences far beyond China…
- From The Chinese Phoenix: Birth of the Xinhai Dynasty by Matt Ward
[1] This is not the ATL counterpart of the OTL Chinese Civil War (1927-1949) but rather the Warlord Era (1916-1928). With most of the non-ideological warlords falling in line rather quickly, the conflict is much more ideological in nature.
[2] Most European authors use the term Second American Civil War instead of Second American Revolution.
[3] OTL.
[4] IOTL, Zhang Zhuong remained a supporter of the Beiyang government while also working for the Japanese in Manchuria. He was also an anti-communist, which is why he breaks with Sun Yat-Sen ITTL.
[5] OTL.
Nice ripple effect from Red victory in America. Looking forward to seeing if China can stay united, or will end up splitting apart.
Right now, China is not quite united. The Qing control Manchuria and Beijing, while the Xinhai control the rest of China (including Tibet and Mongolia).