Even if they US does occupy and invade parts of North Korea they will likely be forced out of the area if for no other reason than they need those troops elsewhere. I can see the region being left to the UN which would in fact just be the Chinese since they are the only ones with troops to spare for the region.
Bush vs. The Axis of Evil - TL
North Korea would definitely deploy chemical warfare once its backed into the endless tunnel network that's been built underground there, the potential losses involved in clearing those (and potential moral outrage of simply cementing the entrance and air supply vents over) can be leveraged for North Korean benefit when negotiating their inevitable surrender.
I doubt China nor Russia would allow for anyone else occupying North Korea. For them, it’ll look like a de facto concession of authority to the US.
Honestly speaking a realistic Second Korean War would look something like this:
I'm always curios about a Second Korean War breaking out in the 2000s. Especially before North Korea had functioning nuclear weapons. For one, the U.S. is still uncontested, coming out of as the dominant hyperpower after the Cold War and Desert Storm. Two, the USN still had more carriers than present day, which included the aging yet effective USS Enterprise (CVN-65) along with the conventional Kitty Hawk-class carriers, the USS Kitty Hawk (CV-63), USS Constellation (CV-64), the USS John F. Kennedy (CV-67), and eight Nimitz-class supercarriers as of 2002-2003. The USS Ronald Reagan (CVN-76) would still be under construction while the USS George H.W. Bush (CVN-77) was only laid down IOTL September 2003.
Meanwhile, the ROK and JSDF is miles more advanced than the KPA. Also worth considering the JMSDF has four Kongo-class guided-missile destroyers at this period. The improved Atago-class DDG didn't enter service until 2005. However, the Kongo-class DDGs didn't receive SM-3s until 2006-2007.
Northern Storm: Second Korean War 2003
Meanwhile, we have similar discussions on this forum:
Meanwhile, the ROK and JSDF is miles more advanced than the KPA. Also worth considering the JMSDF has four Kongo-class guided-missile destroyers at this period. The improved Atago-class DDG didn't enter service until 2005. However, the Kongo-class DDGs didn't receive SM-3s until 2006-2007.
Northern Storm: Second Korean War 2003
Meanwhile, we have similar discussions on this forum:
AHC Make the US invade North Korea in place of Iraq in 2003
What kind of PODs or changes would have to take place to make it so the Bush Administration decides to invade North Korea rather than Iraq in the year 2003?
www.alternatehistory.com
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The north can't launch any significantly major offensives after 1991 (and arguably ever, but that's another story), however the terrain mixed with their irregular forces and the raw numbers of artillery means they can defend a lot better, even against airpower.
Thus instead of the repetition of their 1950 blitz even in massively different conditions, if I was playing Kim in a supervillain wargame and had to launch a conventional war, I'd go for a bite and hold strategy of trying to grab some southern land and then trying to get political concessions by turtling against the counterattacks. And if the Americans/southerners started it-well, I can just skip the initial offensive part.
If they attempt to annex Iranian Azerbaijan (a territory arguably even larger than the Republic of Azerbaijan itself), it will likely backfire against them, assuming that the coalition/the US/Russia even permits them to do so to begin with, the first problem is that what "Iranian Azerbaijan" means is up for debate, since Azeris live way beyond what is traditionally considered the "Iranian Azerbaijan", and there are plenty of non-Azeri minorities inhabiting it, like the Kurds, Talysh, Gilaks, Tats, Lurs, and the Persians themselves, and Azerbaijan is a country where non-Azeri ethnic minorities are subject to forceful assimilation.
Iranian Azeris and Azeris in Azerbaijan live in two very different societies, despite both places being majority-Shia Muslim, Azerbaijan's government and society itself is quite anti-religious, it bans Hijabs in schools, prohibits Islamic symbols in public (even in Mosques I think), prohibits foreign Muslim preachers, bans Azeri citizens from getting Muslim education abroad, restricts Azeri pilgrims of going to Hajj, the population is not devoutly religious and sees Islam as more of a patriotic/cultural symbol rather than a genuine faith, and more stuff of that type, Azerbaijan upholds Soviet-esque anti-religious policies that are the extreme opposite of the Shia Theocracy that Iran is.
This weird trend of a Muslim-majority country whose autocratic government severely restricts Islam reminds me of Turkmenistan and Tajikistan, you ironically have more freedom to be a Muslim in the West rather than in these places, hell, Tajikistan prohibits men from growing beards and wearing Islamic clothing (Turkmenistan does it too), viewing it as foreign subversion, with even incidents of police officers forcibly shaving beards from Muslim men, they also prohibit any foreign bearded men from entering the country! (well, now Tajikistan and Turkmenistan are countries that I'll never be able to visit, and I'm not even Muslim)
Despite the contrast between the two states, there does exists some brotherly sentiment among Iranian Azeris and Azeris from Azerbaijan, but I am not sure if the Iranian Azeris would be happy with out of the blue being completely annexed by the former Soviet republic of Azerbaijan, I also recall reading that Azeris are some of the most pro-Ayatollah non-Persian minorities in Iran, Khamenei's father was an Azeri for example.
Also IOTL, the West has usually avoided partitioning countries that they intervene in, the Bosniaks, Serbs, and Croats were forced to remain united under a single state even after a bloody war and genocide, and the US also did not permit the independence of Iraqi Kurdistan, despite Kurds being subjected to similar atrocities by Saddam and having a strong wish for independence and separate identity from Iraqi Arabs.
Note: Someone please correct me if I got anything wrong in this wall of text, I read most stuff about this a long while ago.
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The closest thing I could see happening is Azerbaijan and Turkey funding Azeri militias in an area that's become akin to the Kurdish special region or the Wa State. Hell I could see a lot of countries funding ethnic and religious militias in order to fight proxy wars against each other. Which would probably make the 2006-2008 Iraqi civil war look like sunshine and rainbows https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Iraqi_civil_war_(2006–2008). Honestly it reminds me of this video made by Alternate history hub
Your two turtledove awards for "Footprint of Mussolini" and "Death Of Russia" say otherwise
You won two well deserved Turtledove Awards for your previous stories. I'd say you're a damn good writer.
Agreed, that usually doesn't happen by chance, and twice in a row.
The only way I see things getting realistically worse is if Double U B gets assassinated, although the title implies that he lives.
Dude, FoM and DoR are two of the best timelines ever written on this website.
If we get an unsuccessful assassination, that seems like the worst of both worlds. His life being threatened that way wouldn't be helpful AND it would only encourage the worst potential impulses from the White House.