There's a story of that here and on the wiki. North Korea attacks South Korea while the military was having exercises with the USFK in FOAL Eagle 2003. With the invasion of Iraq in full swing on the same month, the Bush administration faces a two-front war.
My first TL enjoy! Coming out of the 1994 Korean War thread. Second Korean War Timeline January 29, 2002- President George W. Bush during his State of the Union address announces North Korea as being part of an Axis of Evil with Iraq and Iran. He cites these nations as working to...
www.alternatehistory.com
Similar scenario by
@Mitridates the Great set in 2004 -->
WI: USA decides to invade North Korea in response to Korea's first nuclear test.
China in 2003 won't be able to protect North Korea. No ocean-going navy and a localized air force to speak of. Ballistic missile numbers were not yet the threat as it was by the 2010s. Here's a source from 2002 with an old website interface. It even describes of the status of the PLAN's carrier plans.
Ditto for Russia.
Probably only something ASB would be required, like an abundance of oil is discovered in North Korea.
No oil in the DPRK but there are natural resources there. Untapped nonetheless.
Now North Korea’s mining sector trade is under a full ban by the UN.
www.businessinsider.com
While the South became rich and progressive, it has difficulty in procuring natural resources. The North has it, but has little to no methods to extract it due to UN sanctions.
Post Desert Storm, through to my retirement in 1997 near every HQ & field exercise I participated in was a Korean war scenario. The specifics of each varied, but the USMC was training first to fight NKPA. I thought that a bit over focused, but its what we did. One detail was that we were not overconfident, thinking the NKPA would be another version of the Iraqis of 1991. The senior leaders ensured we took the Koreas seriously & we fought them on the map as tough disciplined opponent.
1994 was the closest to have a Second Korean War since the Clinton administration planned to use F-117s to bomb the Yongbon nuclear reactor. It would have resulted in a massive artillery and chemical attack on Seoul. The North Koreans would have been defeated because the 1990s showed the United States was the sole superpower after the Cold War.
Even in 1997, I wonder how truly efficient the KPA was. Once their supplies have been destroyed by USAF and USN strikes, they would probably lose their cohesion. Even today, it's questionable how the North Koreans would fight, considering the average North Korean can't even have access to three meals a day.