TL-191: After the End

[CT23]

David has hinted on a number of occasions here that there will be a 'final' or at least 'decisive' war between the US and Japan in the near future; what do you think will be the spark for that?

I imagine the most obvious thought would be that Japan tries to move towards Australia or New Zealand.

 

[Euroman26]

Year 2000 estimate. What kind of world will we have?

If I know German correctly they will not call their Europe for an Empire at this point. Maybe we will have a group of officers who pushed for a Constitutional Monarchy in the 1970s?

Could we Imagine an 1980s OT scenario in lets say Indonesia? Where a foreign power Germany, US they send ind money and weapons to Islamic rebels in that country dragging Japans soldiers into a war they can't win. Eventually breaking the back of japanese empire lets say around 1990?

 

[Grimm Reaper]

I don't remember any of the books suggesting Japan had invaded China in this TL, instead they had grabbed the French and Dutch colonies after WWI and were happier with that.

 

[Nevermore]

I don't remember any of the books suggesting Japan had invaded China in this TL, instead they had grabbed the French and Dutch colonies after WWI and were happier with that.

I think this is a probable assumption that they have. China's history isn't really mentioned, but since we've no talk of an emperor in China, I think that their history here mirrors OTL's somewhat. If anything, Japan has simply taken over tiny parts of China one at a time and carved it up into various puppet states. In fact, I think that would probably be far smarter than directly annexing large chunks of it anyway. It lets whatever stooge you put into the presidency/monarchy have to deal with those sorts of problems, all he has to do is report to Tokyo.

 

[lothaw]

I don't remember any of the books suggesting Japan had invaded China in this TL, instead they had grabbed the French and Dutch colonies after WWI and were happier with that.

In the Center Cannot Hold, I do remember Cincinattus listening to the radio news and in the world segment Japan was bombing Chinese cities. Only mention of China I remember.

Seems logical they would though. Not like anyone's going to be opposing them.

 

[Faeelin]

I don't remember any of the books suggesting Japan had invaded China in this TL, instead they had grabbed the French and Dutch colonies after WWI and were happier with that.

Nah. Without the Soviet aid to the KMT, they wouldn't have reunified the country in the 1920s, so instead you get continued warlordism, with the Japanese intervening as needed to protect their interests, IMO.

Indeed, with the weaker US and crazy Britain illustrated in the TL, it's possible that China was carved into sphere of influences in the early 1900s.

 

[David bar Elias]

I should mention that China will have a much happier history than its had so far in TL-191 in the coming decades. By the end of the century, China will be America's single strongest ally.

 

[lothaw]

I should mention that China will have a much happier history than its had so far in TL-191 in the coming decades. By the end of the century, China will be America's single strongest ally.

Why? If anything their history is going to end one chapter of warlords and civil wars and Japanese subjugation. It'll then start a new chapter of rebellion against Japan which means bombings, killings, and semi-open warfare... I'd hardly call that an improvement.

And even if they do win, they'll probably just resume the old conflicts.

 

[Tom Kalbfus]

Why? If anything their history is going to end one chapter of warlords and civil wars and Japanese subjugation. It'll then start a new chapter of rebellion against Japan which means bombings, killings, and semi-open warfare... I'd hardly call that an improvement.

And even if they do win, they'll probably just resume the old conflicts.

Well what if the Chinese nuke Hiroshima and Nagasaki?

 

[lothaw]

Eh, being China's likely divided between warlords, whatever's left of the KMT, and probably the communists, plus Japan running roughshod whereever they want, unlikely at the best...

Japan's going to get nukes first and would use them at the first hint of chinese proliferation.

 

[Michael B]

Eh, being China's likely divided between warlords, whatever's left of the KMT, and probably the communists, plus Japan running roughshod whereever they want, unlikely at the best...

Japan's going to get nukes first and would use them at the first hint of chinese proliferation.

And with their rocket programme both Germany and the USA are going to think twice about objecting to the Japanese bombing Chinese nuclear installation. Not that any warlord is really going to bother trying. The sheer cost of building from first principle is going to put it out of range and they won't have the spies to steal or contacts to buy plans.

In general Japanese policy over China is going to be similar to the British in India or the Romans on their borders on OTL; peace is preferable to war because it is going to easier to collect tribute that way. Any one who steps out of line and threatens the Pax Nipponica gets wacked, which means the communists are going to be regularly wacked.

Could we Imagine an 1980s OT scenario in lets say Indonesia? Where a foreign power Germany, US they send ind money and weapons to Islamic rebels in that country dragging Japans soldiers into a war they can't win. Eventually breaking the back of japanese empire lets say around 1990?

Why Islamic rebels? Why not Christians or straight nationalists? Indonesia is a hodge podge of peoples. Besides whilst the USA may have a bone to pick with the Japanese, so far the latter have not bothered the Germans.

In addition if it is Islamic rebels then the Ottoman empire in the name of Muslim brotherhood is the much likely candidate for the arms.

There is also another general possibility, namely the Japanese keep their ramshackle empire rolling until 2100. After all as long as they remain the biggest thugs in it and go for divide and rule they can beat all the little thugs down. Add a strategy of avoiding annoying or directly competing with the Germans and Americans and there is a real that they could maintain a grip on things albeit in oceans of blood.

 

[Fenrir_Angerboda]

There is also another general possibility, namely the Japanese keep their ramshackle empire rolling until 2100. After all as long as they remain the biggest thugs in it and go for divide and rule they can beat all the little thugs down. Add a strategy of avoiding annoying or directly competing with the Germans and Americans and there is a real that they could maintain a grip on things albeit in oceans of blood.

acctually I always felt the Japanese Empire would colapse in the late 80's or early 90's at the latest.

 

[jycee]

I think the 80s (starting in the late 70s) would be the perfect time for all of TL 191 empires to disintegrate.
There should be some balkanization of Europe and the Middle East; the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Ottoman Empire cannot last that much longer and most of Japan and Germany's colonies around the world will begin to achieve their independence. In the US greater autonomy is given to Canada and the former CSA; although not full independence it might involve heavy amending of the constitution for autonomies to exist within the Union and independence to some Caribbean states.

 

[David bar Elias]

There should be some balkanization of Europe and the Middle East; the Austro-Hungarian Empire and the Ottoman Empire cannot last that much longer and most of Japan and Germany's colonies around the world will begin to achieve their independence.

The Ottomans are a very stable, prosperous state. They won't be coming to pieces by centuries' end. A number of Germany's colonies will gain independence, but most will be in the orbit of the European Community. Austria-Hungary, well, I haven't quite decided what they'll look like by 2000. They will have reformed greatly though...

In the US greater autonomy is given to Canada and the former CSA; although not full independence it might involve heavy amending of the constitution for autonomies to exist within the Union and independence to some Caribbean states.

None of America's Canadian, Southern, or Caribbean territories will gain independence or autonomy. Full annexation will be the endgame (though not all areas will be states by century's end).

 

[Michael B]

The Ottomans are a very stable, prosperous state. They won't be coming to pieces by centuries' end. A number of Germany's colonies will gain independence, but most will be in the orbit of the European Community. Austria-Hungary, well, I haven't quite decided what they'll look like by 2000. They will have reformed greatly though...

None of America's Canadian, Southern, or Caribbean territories will gain independence or autonomy. Full annexation will be the endgame (though not all areas will be states by century's end).

Most empires could tick on if they give their subjects local autonomy plus a cut of the top table. Taking the AH empire as an example, the Austrians had conceded some power to the Hungarians. If they made some concessions to the Czechs, Ruthenians and Poles they would have a majority of the empire with a stake in the government. Gerrymandering could be used to maintain Austrian leadership. Add a guarantee of freedom of movement within the empire and the AH Empire would still be intact in 2000.

The Germans and Japanese would have their work cut out holding the fringes of their empires because of the differences between the rulers and their subjects. However if there was no significant decolonisation drive as on OTL driven partly by the USA's distaste for the British and French Empires and partly by communism, the main empires could continue in a similar size as at the end of WW2.

 

[Tom Kalbfus]

The Ottomans are a very stable, prosperous state. They won't be coming to pieces by centuries' end. A number of Germany's colonies will gain independence, but most will be in the orbit of the European Community. Austria-Hungary, well, I haven't quite decided what they'll look like by 2000. They will have reformed greatly though...



None of America's Canadian, Southern, or Caribbean territories will gain independence or autonomy. Full annexation will be the endgame (though not all areas will be states by century's end).

I kind of agree. I don't see why the North would be giving the South anything more than Lincoln and his sucessors gave the South in the aftermath of the Civil War. Also there is no provision in the US Constitution for the Admission of Superstates, that is large states made up of smaller states, into the Union. I think Canada will either be annexed or let loose. The conflict with Canada during the last Great War was low level Guerilla activity, much of the sort that might have gone on in Northern Ireland in the UK during World War II. The question would settle on the number of US citizens that managed to migrate northward by the time a plebicite for admission into the Union of Independence is called upon, the majority of people in the Canadian territories will probably be allowed to decide upon this by vote at some time in the future, former CSA states won't get this choice as historically they were a part of the USA prior to secession and Canada was not. I think for a time Canada will have a status similar to Puerto Rico in our timeline, but the Canadians themselves will either go for full independence or admission into the Union with Canadian Provinces becoming states. I think the western Canadian provinces like Alberta would be more likely to vote in favor of admission.

 

[CT23]

Now the the CSA isn't a large-scale threat anymore, at the moment, will government business be moved back to Washington D.C.?

 

[catboy637]

Now the the CSA isn't a large-scale threat anymore, at the moment, will government business be moved back to Washington D.C.?

I doubt it. Look at OTL Russia. It's capital was Petrograd until the Red Revolution. After the collapse of the USSR, they kept Moscow as it's capital because they had it for about 70 years or so.

 

[David bar Elias]

Now the the CSA isn't a large-scale threat anymore, at the moment, will government business be moved back to Washington D.C.?

I doubt it. Look at OTL Russia. It's capital was Petrograd until the Red Revolution. After the collapse of the USSR, they kept Moscow as it's capital because they had it for about 70 years or so.

I plan to have Washington as a "Museum City" of sorts. The President will be sworn in there every four years, but Philadelphia will eventually become the formal capital of the Union.

 

[Constantinople]

What portion of the electorate does the republican party control?