The strange situation in South America ITTL caused by the lack of competition between the Castilians and Portuguese is exactly why the French and other interlopers have multiple avenues to slip through the cracks in the coming decades.
Una diferente ‘Plus Ultra’ - the Avís-Trastámara Kings of All Spain and the Indies (Updated 11/7)
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The strange situation in South America ITTL caused by the lack of competition between the Castilians and Portuguese is exactly why the French and other interlopers have multiple avenues to slip through the cracks in the coming decades.
Basically America is a Castilian continent and with little interest for Portugal. While Suafrica is the new Brazil. I feel that later Brazil will end up being administered entirely by Castilla De Facto but De iure it is Portuguese.
Yay Waifus!!!Ah mmm that already it's ending. That started in 1450s and ended in 1610s.
*looking the massification of firearms inside the Japanese armies and the rotatory volley made by Nobunaga*
Didn't France have a colony that was absorbed by Portuguese Brazil ITTL (and in our own, for that matter)?
EDIT: I went back and checked, and the French did indeed have a colony in Southern Brazil that was absorbed by the Portuguese ITTL, France Australe. I know they had France Antarctique and France Equinoctial IOTL as well.
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They have no resources to be a threat. They couldn't conquer Korea which was basically next door, they will not be able to do anything to a global empire like Spain. Even if Spain respurces are stretched. Their political situation is extremley fragil, they don't posses a professional army and they thend to isolationism.
Comparing the sengoku tactics with the Tercios is also farfetched tbf. The tercios would teach the samurai what figthing a war is actually like if they ever fougth and i am not exagerating. Not only were they the most professional force in the word rigth now, they had superior armor and arms. In comparision, the samurai were an elite force and Japan's armies relied on levies. If they figth in their own land then they have the adventage because of their huge population, but if they want to come seraching for trouble then they have to confront the spanish on their turf. I don't think they can go to war against Spain as the agressors. I predict they will remain isolationist and not even try to contest Spain hegemony on South East Asia.
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I think the Aragonese and Italian subjects of the Spanish crown would tend to want to colonize the possessions in North Africa before heading over the ocean to the Americas. Considering how much more integrated TTL Spanish empire is, I'm sure there will eventually be considerable numbers of Aragonese, Catalans, Sicilians, and southern Italians making their own settlements. Perhaps the Metropole while being slightly Lusanitized due to Lisbon's influence will still retain it's component cultural distinctions, the American colonies is where all these different people's begin to coalesce and merge into a distinct Spanish American culture with major influences from all over the empire. I'm also curious about how language is going to evolve in the various colonies. It looks like Sul Africa will be the main melting pot and I can see Portuguese-descended dialect forming there with significant Castilian, African, and Asian influences. The Americas probably develop dialects influenced much more heavily by Castilian.
Why does this make me think of the Portuguese America and Africa TL?
Ah ok makes sense. For Sul Africa, I imagine not just a weird amalgam of OTL Angola/Mozambique and Dutch Cape but also Brazil. The former two were not successfully Europeanised for the most part while Brazil has a white plurality in population and is Lusophone all the way while Angola and Mozambique are far less Lusophone and white.
I imagine Sul Africa will thus be 'Brazil' ITTL as the primary Portuguese colony the way Brazil was OTL and receive thousands of Portuguese immigrants making it a Lusophone white plurality (if not majority) colony with a lot of European ancestry and cultural heritage and mixed race. As in it will be more Brazil in terms of culture and demographics by modern day ITTL than either Angola, Mozambique, or South Africa are with majority black populations and cultures for all that they speak European languages.
This is what I imagine Sul Africa can look like in the short term (as in by the year 1800) while if Spain manages to keep it/ alternatively Sul Africa once independent expands during the Scramble of Africa, it could become this
Something like this?
I haven't a clue what the plan is for Patagonia or for the rest of North America though I imagine the English, Dutch/HRE, and possible the Danish and Swedish will have great colonial interests in those areas.
Or for that matter, the extent of Spanish colonization in North Africa, though I imagine most of Morocco, Western Sahara, the Algerian coast, and Tunisia will eventually fall fully under their rule and likely fully Hispanize due to proximity to Spain and Italy and the colonists originating from there.
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To be frank, that's a rather unlikely scenario: the united Iberian crown does not have the benefit of diseases decimating the indigenous population - indeed, in terms of diseases like malaria and yellow fever, it is the Africans with the immunities here, not Europeans. Any Euro plurality in these areas has to be incredibly localized, in sparsely populated zones (think the Kalahari Desert), supported by heretofore unseen levels of genocide that could only really be abetted by natural causes like the diseases above. Moreover, there's no guarantee that the Portuguese will expand far beyond the coasts, letting friendly nearby kingdoms like the Kongo administer territories while they stay on trading posts, close to the sea and far from forests full of malaria and inlands full of unfamiliar and often unfriendly locals.Ah ok makes sense. For Sul Africa, I imagine not just a weird amalgam of OTL Angola/Mozambique and Dutch Cape but also Brazil. The former two were not successfully Europeanised for the most part while Brazil has a white plurality in population and is Lusophone all the way while Angola and Mozambique are far less Lusophone and white.
I imagine Sul Africa will thus be 'Brazil' ITTL as the primary Portuguese colony the way Brazil was OTL and receive thousands of Portuguese immigrants making it a Lusophone white plurality (if not majority) colony with a lot of European ancestry and cultural heritage and mixed race. As in it will be more Brazil in terms of culture and demographics by modern day ITTL than either Angola, Mozambique, or South Africa are with majority black populations and cultures for all that they speak European languages.
This is what I imagine Sul Africa can look like in the short term (as in by the year 1800) while if Spain manages to keep it/ alternatively Sul Africa once independent expands during the Scramble of Africa, it could become this
Southern Africa was sparsely populated in the 1500s and 1600s so they could get a very large white population in the south but yes I do agree that the further north they go the less that will become.
Honestly IMO the first map is more likely to me than the second yes I will concede though the second could be what they get from the Scramble but those colonies won't be properly Lusophone and will instead be your typical Scramble for Africa colony.
As I said, if Spain continues to advance in North Africa, then she may lose interest in maintaining any colonies in the South at all. Tunisia and Egypt are close at hand, and there is better infrastructure, and more favorable conditions for Europeans. So Portuguese-speaking Africans can become an analogue of the Boers.
You can still something like this (look only at the New World).
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I agree with this assessment. Sulafrica will be large, but it won't take up the entire southern half of Africa.
@Torbald has already stated there will be a large colony in the south and it’s not hard to see why because it is in their route to the east and it’s riches
Spain's hold on the East Indies IOTL was tenuous and threatened by the equivalent of two separate pirate raids (see: Koxinga and Limahong). On the one hand, TTL's Spanish East Indies have more resources behind them, but on the other, there will likely be a more concentrated effort against Spanish hegemony on the part of East Asia as a whole.
European control on our side of the world was always tenuous, and only secured by missionaries being really successful in maintaining support against the infidel and the heretic. At the very least, Japan cannot afford to ignore Spain, as IOTL.
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That's why I asked about Egypt - in the version where the Spanish Kingdom continues to expand to the east, they receive territory not only under the control of the place of several important Christian shrines (and from there not far to Jerusalem), but the port from where to India to sail much faster.
Spain conquering Egypt is something beyond their capability’s IMHO. They’re going up against the Ottomans at the heigh mr of their power
However, they already retained control over Africa. In addition, I do not suggest right away - at the end of the XVI century, the Celali turmoil will begin, which will create an opportunity to undermine the Turkish hegemony. In any case, in the timelines I read, where Spain conquered Africa, the conquest of Egypt took place at the beginning of the XVII century.
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XVII century? The 1600s? The height of the Ottomans and Spain can take Egypt from them? That’s too much I’m Ngl.
Not only that. Portugal's side of the Hispanic monarchy would argue strongly against that because they would lose their place of middleman in the commerce with Asia in favour of Aragonese and Castilians through Egypt.
Yeah tbch their interest in Egypt would be lacking with control of the lucrative Portuguese routes which travelling by sea, are more direct and knit Spain’s empire together