What if Germany refuses to accept the Oder-Neisse line as a condition for reunification?

CalBear

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Opinions are a reason to get banned here?
That is probably why around every third user in the old threads I read before signing up was already banned by the time I read it.
We tend to have very little tolerance for Nazis, Holocaust deniers, War Crime Apologists, Overt racists and other sorts of bigots.

Even then in many cases we will give folks a few chances before they get Banned.

In the specific case of the OP of this thread he was a 4th Generation sockpuppet.
 
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We tend to have very little tolerance for Nazis, Holocaust deniers, War Crime Apologists, Overt racists and other sorts of bigots.

Even then in many cases we will give folks a few chances before they get Banned.

In the specific case of the OP of this thread he was a 4th Generation sockpuppet.

I was going to tag the moderators with my next post. Suffice it to say that I have seen this poster keep reappeared by with his talk of the injustices of Oder-Neisse and imagining what if Germany did not recognize this border.

I am in doubt about wether it would be a pariah. There are many more states in the world than the US, the UK, France and Russia.
The latter might probably even welcome a Germany not aligned with the West and try to cooperate with it in a quest to regain its lost influence in eastern Europe.

I have to be very skeptical about the plausibility of any Russian government, post-Soviet or otherwise, allying again with Germany to partitioning central Europe. Operation Barbarossa is remembered. This might especially be the case in the context of a geopolitical scenario where not just a broad sphere of Russian influence but the Russian state and economy itself are collapsing.

That would be the case if Russia still was the Superpower of the 1960s-80s.
By 1990 Russia was in a position of weakness themselves.
Thus to settle the differences and reach a compromise might be seen as beneficial.
At least temporarily.

Why? What could Germany provide Russia that would not be wiped out by losses? Ignoring the spectre of another German attack on Russia, if these two states are again involved in a project to partition the weaker and smaller states between their eastern borders I doubt Moscow will get integrated into the world economy.

Because that worked so well in 1939?

Aligning with a Germany that want its eastern territories back means Poland aligns with the rest of the West faster than the speed of sound. The good news for Russia is that it might lead to NATO and the EC dissolving. The bad news is that if they are, they're replaced with new treaties where Poland and Czechoslovakia are included.

Anything is open now.

I think you misunderstood me.
I meant how are they going to prevent Germany from unifying if it refuses to formally recognize the eastern border.

I actually did not misunderstand you. As Russia has been demonstrating, a refusal to recognize the integrity of an interstate border can very easily be the first stage of a project of trying to revise the border. In the case of the German-Polish border, particularly charged because of the Second World War and the psychic legacy of the Nazis, this non-recognition of the established Polish border would be taken as the first stage of a German project to revise its border with Poland against Polish wishes.

Not how are they going to prevent Germany from actually reconquering these territories, because the pidea of them trying that would be nonsense.
Not formally recollgnizing the status of a territory doesn't mean you will automatically go to war about alit.
Japan still hasn't recognized the Kuril Islands as part of Russia either for example.

The Kurils are distant and remote. They are not, say, territories where millions of people live, and have not seen (say) horrific atrocities committed against local populations by invaders. Germany, in this case, will be actively laying claim to territories under Polish control for almost two generations, with large and well-established Polish populations. The difference is huge and, frankly, obvious.

A war (if there would be one) about that thus would be a war (over a formality)

Not a formality at all. Even OTL, most of the western European allies of West Germany were initially skeptical about German reunification, and had to be persuaded to support it by assurances that a reunified Germany would not be revisionist. In this case, Germany would actually be explicitly establishing itself as revisionist, again. No one would be under any illusions that the refusal to recognize the post-1945 German-Polish border was anything but the first stage in a new campaign against Poland, this one perhaps less rational than the earlier ones since there would be scarcely any ethnic Germans on the Polish side.

in which the allies try to prevent the Germany from reunifying, in which case the Germans defensive equipment would actually come in quite handy (which is why I cited Vietnam and Afghanistan).

This very idea is ridiculous. Is an essentially bourgeois democratic Germany, one where militarism has been discredited and German society largely depoliticized, actually going to fight a costly war with potentially hundreds of thousands or millions of dead? I would note that Germany, unlike either Vietnam or Afghanistan, would not only have any nearby supportive neighbours, it would be hard-pressed to find any allies at all. What would be the point of this war, more, outside of a desire to keep a casus belli for another war with Poland, less than a lifetime after the previous war that ended up shattering Germany?

The Germany that we know would simply not be interested in this. You are arguing that the Germans would be willing to blow up everything in exchange for retaining a right to claim some Polish territories with an increasingly distant German past. This is not plausible, especially not given the post-1945 history of our Germanies which moved by the 1970s towards a FRG acceptance of the current frontier with the only asterick being that a final settlement of Germany was required for a final settlement of the eastern border.

Now, I can imagine scenarios where Germany evolved differently. Maybe, with a different political settlement, German irredentism was legitimized. I can imagine the Soviets supporting at least the initial stages as a way to break up the Western alliance system. Even this, though, would require Germany to be very different, to be a society where imperialism and militarism and revanchism were OK.
 
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Another thing would be if West Germans would be interested in uniting with an East that is militarized, probably not at the level of Prussia, but being one of the strongest countries militarily. It would be a different, more reactionary, socially conservative Germany (especially if the Russian/Soviet worldview is fixed in Germany, things like homosexuals are actually pedophiles are just one of the things that could be absorbed by East Germans), which would like to unify territorially with its western part. It would be two extremely different Germanys, one more focused on a pacifist, liberal worldview and with a very western vision and the other militarized, conservative and with a more Russian view of the world (might makes right, for example).
Would make an interesting story on this site

That is an interesting idea, but by at least some metrics East Germany could be described as actually more liberal than West Germany, perhaps because it drew on pre-war German radical traditions. The legal environment for queer people was more supportive, for instance.


I have written elsewhere about East Germany's family policy, which followed Scandinavian models albeit from the perspective of trying to solve East German demographic shortfalls by subsidizing fertility to the hilt.
 
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which is why I cited Vietnam and Afghanistan
Vietnam and Afghanistan are faraway lands. France and Britain are right next door. And France and Britain alone are more than a match fot reunified Germany military wise. Add to that US troops stationed inside Germany.

And sorry, Britain and France are not Putin's Russia, so there would be no chance for Germany.
 

RuneGloves

Banned
In whatever situation where they didn't accept such borders, there would be a constant reminder in the air, of how would they even administer such areas, it's an implication that a population transfer would be required for Germany to ever control those lands, which implementation or moral wise would be very odd within a system of post-ww2 western liberalism.
 
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In whatever situation where they didn't accept such borders, there would be a constant reminder in the air, of how would they even administer such areas.
It would be an unspoken matter, that a population transfer would be required for Germany to ever control those lands, within a system of post-ww2 western liberalism.
???
If they didnt accept the border it would be the confirmation that Germany didnt change from 1945 with everything it entails, and if they ever try to act on it, Germans will go pick mushrooms.
 

RuneGloves

Banned
???
If they didnt accept the border it would be the confirmation that Germany didnt change from 1945 with everything it entails, and if they ever try to act on it, Germans will go pick mushrooms.
Meaning that not accepting the border, would entail in situations where they got those lands back, they would likely do population transfers, if that clarifies it better.
(Which would be a very wierd phenomenom in Western countries, however there has been proposals about population transfers before, such as transfering Falklanders to New Zealand, or transfering Hong Kongers to Northern Ireland.)

As for not accepting borders, that is pretty regular for many countries, for example Northern Ireland is a western liberal example of unaccepted borders by many or Japan with Russia, or South Korea with North Korea. Or Taiwan doesn't accept PRC, they still claim most of China.
Wouldn't West Germany not accepting East Germany as a legitimate entity mean "they didn't change from 1945"
 
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Meaning that not accepting the border, would entail in situations where they got those lands back, they would likely do population transfers, if that clarifies it better.
The discussion is moot, because they wouldnt. Ever. The only way for them to get it back would be war. In which case they would be nuked to nonexistence. Or, if their nearer and farther neighbors feel especially forgiving, invaded, occupied for another century, permamently disarmed and just-in-case de-industrialized, and force reeducated to never, ever dream of fighting a war.
 

RuneGloves

Banned
The discussion is moot, because they wouldnt. Ever. The only way for them to get it back would be war. In which case they would be nuked to nonexistence. Or, if their nearer and farther neighbors feel especially forgiving, invaded, occupied for another century, permamently disarmed and just-in-case de-industrialized, and force reeducated to never, ever dream of fighting a war.
We're talking of a hypothetical situation. Not just a standard 1991 random German aggression.
 

RuneGloves

Banned
This scenario, where Germany makes territorial claims against Poland and even the Soviet Union(!), will be a disaster for Germany. The country will have established itself as an untrustworthy revisionist power, unilaterally junking the real efforts made during the later Cold War towards normal German -Polish relations.
The land claims were pre-existing, so it wouldn't be revisionist.
This will alarm everyone.
Not accepting new borders wouldn't alarm anyone, as that was West Germany's policy for half a century
This will make Western acceptance of German reunification impossible,
This is a likely outcome, however, the claims are inert, so reunification could still proceed.
All they'd (German gov) have to do is shut up about the border claims, and use democracy as justification for reunification.
 
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The land claims were pre-existing, so it wouldn't be revisionist.

Not accepting new borders wouldn't alarm anyone, as that was West Germany's policy for half a century

This is a likely outcome, however, the claims are inert, so reunification could still proceed.
All they'd (German gov) have to do is shut up about the border claims, and use democracy as justification for reunification.
And afterwards? Reinstate the claim to the Lost Lands and do what to reclaim then?
 
I actually did not misunderstand you. As Russia has been demonstrating, a refusal to recognize the integrity of an interstate border can very easily be the first stage of a project of trying to revise the border. In the case of the German-Polish border, particularly charged because of the Second World War and the psychic legacy of the Nazis, this non-recognition of the established Polish border would be taken as the first stage of a German project to revise its border with Poland against Polish wishes.
Also, inter-war Germany questioned Poland's western border. How it ended? It is still well remembered.
 

kholieken

Banned
I think you misunderstood me.
I meant how are they going to prevent Germany from unifying if it refuses to formally recognize the eastern border.
Not how are they going to prevent Germany from actually reconquering these territories, because the idea of them trying that would be nonsense.
Not formally recognizing the status of a territory doesn't mean you will automatically go to war about it.
Japan still hasn't recognized the Kuril Islands as part of Russia either for example.
A war (if there would be one) about that thus would be a war (over a formality) in which the allies try to prevent the Germany from reunifying, in which case the Germans defensive equipment would actually come in quite handy (which is why I cited Vietnam and Afghanistan).
There are lot of things government can do short of war :
- They can keep all embassy in Bonn, not Berlin.
- They can refuse any flight to/from East Germany
- They could punish German trade
- They could decide all product from East Germany rejected at border.
- They could ban all citizens to visit or investing money in East Germany
- etc
 
Well the OP is just not renounce claims. Have the claims be unresolved like Japan and the Kurils.
I don't think the Kurils and former Eastern Germany are really comparable. The latter is a lot bigger, has a lot more inhabitants and was taken after WW2 with a lot more reason (from the allied point of view). I think all the allies agreed on changing the eastern border of Germany, I don't think that's the case for the Kurils.
 
I have to be very skeptical about the plausibility of any Russian government, post-Soviet or otherwise, allying again with Germany to partitioning central Europe. Operation Barbarossa is remembered.
Zhirinovsky proposed this at a meeting with one German Chancellor: A copy of the map on which he'd drawn lines to show his ideas for the split & given to the Chancellor was published in at least one British newspaper.
Has anybody here written a timeline in which Zhirinovsky did manage to become leader of Russia?
 
The land claims were pre-existing, so it wouldn't be revisionist.

Not accepting new borders wouldn't alarm anyone, as that was West Germany's policy for half a century

Now that analysis nears the point of dishonesty. Saying that there was no difference between the policy of the early Federal Republic in the 1950s, when these territories were claimed, and the policy of the 1980s, when after the 1970 Treaty of Warsaw established West German policy was to say that the border was accepted and that a final settlement required German reunification, is false.

This is a likely outcome, however, the claims are inert, so reunification could still proceed.

No, no it could not. This would be a renunciation of at least two decades of clear West German policy and would be correctly read as an attempt to reopen a question that had been thought all but settled.

All they'd (German gov) have to do is shut up about the border claims, and use democracy as justification for reunification.

The only way to shut up about the border claims would be to renounce them.
 

Nebogipfel

Monthly Donor
This very idea is ridiculous. Is an essential bourgeois democratic Germany, one where militarism has been discredited and German society largely depoliticized, actually going to fight a costly war with potentially hundreds of thousands or millions of dead?
...
The Germany that we know would simply not be interested in this. You are arguing that the Germans would be willing to blow up everything in exchange for retaining a right to claim some Polish territories with an increasingly distant German past.
...
Now, I can imagine scenarios where Germany evolved differently. Maybe, with a different political settlement, German irredentism was legitimized. I can imagine the Soviets supporting at least the initial stages as a way to break up the Western alliance system. Even this, though, would require Germany to be very different, to be a society where imperialism and militarism and revanchism were OK.
This, basically. Something that annoys me quite a bit in this (and similar) threads is the still widespread assuption that the current day Germans were just waiting for the right moment to unleash the mighty Bundeswehr to install the fourth Reich. By 1990 even the once powerful Vertriebenenverbände (organisations of the expelled groups) were a shadow of their former glory in the 50s and 60s, when they actually had influence - they could punch above their weight being a well organized voters block. Even among conservatives, did not really care about the Ostgebiete any more by then. In other words, in OTL you won't get anyone manning the barricades to fight the Allies again. You need an much earlier POD, which would mean a different Germany anyway.
 
This, basically. Something that annoys me quite a bit in this (and similar) threads is the still widespread assuption that the current day Germans were just waiting for the right moment to unleash the mighty Bundeswehr to install the fourth Reich. By 1990 even the once powerful Vertriebenenverbände (organisations of the expelled groups) were a shadow of their former glory in the 50s and 60s, when they actually had influence - they could punch above their weight being a well organized voters block. Even among conservatives, did not really care about the Ostgebiete any more by then. In other words, in OTL you won't get anyone manning the barricades to fight the Allies again. You need an much earlier POD, which would mean a different Germany anyway.
I don't think any posters are claiming that (other than possibly the OP as a reason for the postulate). Just that there were in 1990 people in power in the 4 Allied Powers that would be very suspicious of West Germans demands for the return of lost territories. Especially as it would likely seem to be driven by demands from those ethnically cleansed to return and then kick out the Poles or Russians living in these lands.

Why should they, and Poland, be other than hostile to this claim?
 
I don't think any posters are claiming that (other than possibly the OP as a reason for the postulate). Just that there were in 1990 people in power in the 4 Allied Powers that would be very suspicious of West Germans demands for the return of lost territories. Especially as it would likely seem to be driven by demands from those ethnically cleansed to return and then kick out the Poles or Russians living in these lands.

Why should they, and Poland, be other than hostile to this claim?
Especially since several of them had been fighting in WW2, so their reaction would be "not this shit again."
 
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