[A teleprompter manufactor waves, valiantly, attempting to shoo a swarm of monarch butterflies away from the factory floor]
Jimmy Two: America in Carter's Second Term
- Thread starter Vidal
- Start date
If Bush or Conally win, this will make Jimmy's electoral prospects better instantly.
Lets hope Kennedy and Carter can pass healthcare reform.
Also great timeline so far Vidal! I’m excited to see what Carter’s second term looks like. Especially the AIDs Epidemic which IMO Carter will handle way better than Reagan.
I would think either of them would be stronger candidates than Reagan. What hurt Reagan was his perceived radicalism. What would help Carter is a more divisive and drawn out GOP primary in which Reagan emerges as a weakened general election candidate.
I'd personally split the difference. Bush was probably a stronger general candidate, Connally likely would've been weaker given how easy it would be to portray him as a wheeler dealer politician with Watergate still fresh in voters' minds.
But yes, I would say one of the crucial factors in Carter's loss was the fact his primary was drawn out and ugly whereas Reagan wrapped it up comparatively early. It would certainly help Carter if that dynamic was reversed...
Thank you! The AIDS crisis will receive a lot of attention here because, as you say, it would be handled much differently. I don't think it's a liberal wank, but I do think Carter was naturally more inclined to pay attention and at least show more humanity.
I have an idea in my head -- what would become my first real attempt at an actual novel -- that's a sort of spinoff from the Jimmy Two universe, which follows the life of a gay man in San Francisco during the AIDS crisis ... in a world in which Carter is reelected.
I usually lurk, but:
Really enjoying this. Up there with McGoverning and the (sadly, it seems, now deceased) Spiraling out of Control: 1992 TLs. Incredible that two writers with such fantastic prosesmithery are writing at the same time.
I second that I would absolutely read the suggested novel. I think I also need to read those Perlstein books y'all are talking about. Had them on my TBR list for a while, this might be just the push I need to actually read them.
Really enjoying this. Up there with McGoverning and the (sadly, it seems, now deceased) Spiraling out of Control: 1992 TLs. Incredible that two writers with such fantastic prosesmithery are writing at the same time.
I second that I would absolutely read the suggested novel. I think I also need to read those Perlstein books y'all are talking about. Had them on my TBR list for a while, this might be just the push I need to actually read them.
I absolutely agree — but have come up short with ideas, so if you have any please post!
Thank you! Lucky to have @Yes as an inspiration and a friend on here
IMO anyone with human empathy would've responded to the AIDs Epidemic better than Reagan. Being honest if you ever published that novel, I'd buy it.
Deleted member 145219
In 2017 there was a discussion on the idea of a Democratic 1980's after a Ford victory in 1976. Either Yes or TheMann discussed how the early 1980's was a critical point for the labor movement in the United States. And that Reagan's Tax Cut pushed up Inflation to the point where Volcker had to raise Interest rates to the point where we not only went into Recession. We had 10% Unemployment nationally and 15-20% in the Rust Belt.
I'm thinking maybe you could have Carter pursue some kind of Tax reform to incentivize companies modernizing and keeping manufacturing operations here in the United States. As part of an overall smaller Tax cut package. Maybe Carter could broker some kind of détente between Organized Labor and Heavy Industry? Carter successfully pushing for Energy Independence and getting a better handle on the Energy Crisis that came out of Iran as a result of the Revolution might help. At least it might stop the 1980 Recession.
The premise sounds interesting, however as a Gay man born in 1995 I approach media about the AIDs Crisis much like media about the Holocaust, too bleak to even consider reading or watching.
Gotcha. So, I can say that without Volcker, things are going to be very different on that front. I need to try and read some more on the decline of the Rust Belt to game out what it looks like in the ATL economy. Kai Bird touches on this in his biography of Jimmy IIRC, so it's definitely been on my radar.
Carter and Labor have a strained relationship, and PATCO is going to be very interesting to write to begin with -- and I honestly haven't even mapped that out totally yet. Still trying to get more information about the earlier Miners' Strike that Carter dealt with before I head down that rabbit hole.
One of the hardest parts of this timeline is how radically different the economy is without Volcker and without the Reagan cuts.
Volcker was nominated by Carter himself, though (on July 25, 1979, less than two weeks after the Crisis of Confidence speech). Unless there are butterflies within that narrow timeframe that you have in mind, it's likely he would still be around.
The main POD of the timeline is that the cabinet firings do not happen. When the cabinet firings took place, that opened up Treasury. G. William Miller was appointed the new Treasury Secretary, and so Volcker was appointed to replace Miller at the Fed.
ITTL, Richard Moe and Walter Mondale's warnings about not doing the mass cabinet firing are heeded, and so Carter doesn't go through with it. Blumenthal remains at Treasury a bit longer, and so no vacancy has occurred at the Fed thus far ITTL.